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Get inside March Madness with SI.com's Luke Winn in the Tourney Blog, a daily journal of college basketball commentary, on-site reporting and reader-driven discussions.
3/29/2008 05:17:00 AM

Day 18: Meet Your Elite Eight

Danny Green
Danny Green gives North Carolina a lift off the bench at the offensive and defensive ends.
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
Breaking down a weekend so good that it probably makes Greg Oden wish he were back in school, rather than being reprimanded for playing pickup games at 24 Hour Fitness ...

East Regional Final: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Louisville

What you should care about:

• The Ultimate Big-White-Guy Battle -- Tyler Hansbrough vs. David Padgett -- will take center stage, but I'm more interested in the duel of the nation's best sixth men. Earl Clark, the dude with the moneybag tattoo on his shooting hand, dominated Tennessee on Thursday, scoring 17 points and grabbing 12 rebounds off the bench. Cardinals coach Rick Pitino starts Clark on the pine because he likes the veteran stability that senior Juan Palacios provides early in games, which means the 'Ville has an incredibly dangerous weapon coming off its bench. Tar Heels coach Roy Williams called Clark a "terrible matchup," but Carolina has a super-sub of its own in Danny Green, who often takes the floor as an undersized four. Green's 12 first-half points against Washington State helped fill the void of Hansbrough's slow start.

• The tournament's best offense is meeting its best defense. Carolina, as we mentioned on Thursday, was absolutely scorching in the first two rounds, delivering the fourth- and sixth-most offensively efficient performances of the entire season (out of 10,478 games!). And Louisville suffocated both Oklahoma (0.78 PPP allowed) and Tennessee (0.79 PPP allowed) in its past two games. No team left in the tourney is playing D at a statistical level even close to the Cardinals.

The pick: North Carolina 79, Louisville 75. Offense wins, for once.

West Regional Final: No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 3 Xavier

What you should care about:

• The Bruins have gone from tourney favorite to tightrope act over the past two weeks, and logic would suggest that if they couldn't put away Texas A&M or Western Kentucky, they're going to have serious trouble with the Muskies. But Xavier has been almost as famously bad at maintaining tourney leads -- see the second-round game against Ohio State in '07, and Friday's win over West Virginia for examples -- as UCLA has been about digging itself early holes. Xavier's vaunted defense had plenty of trouble with Joe Alexander in the second half, and I have my doubts about them containing Kevin Love. (Especially after finding out that the only reason they held Mike Beasley to six points in December was because Lil' Mike had on ill-fitting shoes. I'm not serious there, but you have to give Mike credit for a creative excuse: he blamed it on bad vintage Jordans.)

• According to kenpom.com's "correlation" data, the Muskies' defensive efficiency is heavily related -- "significant with a 99 percent confidence," in the site's parlance -- to how well they limit their opponent on the offensive glass. And UCLA happens to be ranked eighth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage at 39.5. The Bruins grabbed nearly half (49.5 percent) of the available offensive boards against Western Kentucky on Thursday.

The pick: UCLA 67, Xavier 66. Late-game miracle TBD.

For Sunday's Elite Eight picks, click here.

Tourney Blog Pool update: Our 5,490-bracket competition on Facebook is getting heated heading into Elite Eight weekend. John Cramer of the U.S. District Courts network (on Facebook) is alone in the lead with 80 points, all of his Final Four teams alive, and North Carolina beating Texas in the title game. In second place is Josh Dixon of Copiah-Lincoln Community College; he has 79 points and the same UNC-over-UT title game, but could jump into the lead if Xavier upset UCLA to make the Final Four. Meanwhile, our top Kansas bracket belongs to Greg Small of Baltimore, our top Memphis bracket is David Jordan of UCF, our top Texas bracket is Jeremy Loomis-Norris ... and our top UCLA bracket is Adam Hill, an alum of Indiana.

As for your blogger, I'm tied for 160th, nine points off the lead. Top three percent ain't bad. Look for a longer post on the leaders -- with interviews via Facebook! -- leading up to the Final Four.
posted by Luke Winn | View comments (24) |

24 Comments:

Posted: March 29, 2008 1:08 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Why doesn't anybody give Memphis any credit?

They have beaten the best. They continue to win even though they are always the underdog!

All of you haters need to open your eyes! Memphis has got it going on!
Posted: March 29, 2008 1:13 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
I was finally impressed with Memphis last night. The way they shot the ball in the first half, there isn't a defense that could have stopped them. That said, I still think Texas will take them.

On an unrelated note, why is Billy Packer still calling games? At the end of MSU's 17-0 run in the second half, he kept blathering on about Calipari not being happy with "trading baskets" with MSU. I think he was just mad that he didn't get to call an ACC game.
I am looking forward to reading Mr. Winn's blog when Memphis beats Texas. Why do people continue to believe the Tigers aren't for real? The Spartans were supposed to physically dominate Memphis, if you believed all the media pundits. Gee, what happened? If you have to pick one #1 seed to NOT make it, you might want to look at NC v. Louisville. The Tarheels are going to get spanked!
Posted: March 29, 2008 1:49 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
How has Memphis beaten the best? The only team they played that went past the first two rounds in the tournament was Tennessee, and they lost to them at home?

They are underdogs for a reason, and it's not just free throw shooting.
Posted: March 29, 2008 1:55 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
UCLA is going down...!
The x-men are balling you all...
I'm a Houston native and future UT Longhorn, and of course Memphis hasn't played a pg like Augustin, but the Horns haven't faced a backcourt anywhere similar to Rose and Anderson.

Rose is about 5 inches taller than DJ and even quicker. A 6'6 and quick Anderson will most likely take Abrams out of the game, not unlike Neitzel got eliminated.

And what kind of logic is it to pick against a team simply because you can't believe all four no. 1 seeds make it?

Memphis wins and advances to S.A.
UT also hasn't played a big, explosive point guard like Derrick Rose or a long, defender like Antonio Anderson.

What kind of logic is it to pick against a team simply because you can't believe there will be four no. 1 seeds?

Memphis wins by 7 and advances to S.A.
Posted: March 29, 2008 2:32 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Who has Memphis beaten that you call the "best." They're good, but the only top ten team they've played beat them, as far as I know... (Georgetown might count, but they've proven to be a sham).
Posted: March 29, 2008 2:39 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Trust me - ACC fans don't want Billy Packer calling their games. It's time for him to go out to pasture. The same with Clark Kellogg - he rarely ever predicts an ACC team to win the in tourney. He's definitely Big 10 biased.
Posted: March 29, 2008 2:55 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
No one gives memphis any credit because the best team they played this season was Tennessee and they lost!
Posted: March 29, 2008 3:26 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Louisville will win because they can have more defense that the tar heels. I'm a UK fan...and as much as it pains me to say it...this may be their year.
Posted: March 29, 2008 3:32 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Finally some respect for UNC from SI writers. It's about time.
Posted: March 29, 2008 3:38 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Everybody better watch the UofL/NC game. You're gonna be suprised who wins.
Posted: March 29, 2008 3:42 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Memphis is by far the best team in the tournament. They are explosive on offense and will smother you on defense.

Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas Roberts are the two key factors to Memphis' success!

I think Memphis will win it all!
Posted: March 29, 2008 3:46 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Trust me - ACC fans don't want Billy Packer calling their games. It's time for him to go out to pasture. The same with Clark Kellogg - he rarely ever predicts an ACC team to win the in tourney. He's definitely Big 10 biased.
Posted: March 29, 2008 4:13 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Memphis has beaten the best??! they haven't even come close to playing the best. i'm sorry the "best of the A-10" just doesn't mean squat until you prove it against some real competition.
Posted: March 29, 2008 4:20 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Memphis is good .... at basketball, but I can't get a memory of a former Memphis player who went to the pros after playing at Memphis and enrolled, yes enrolled, in the 3rd grade in order to learn how to read and write! I wonder how many of the current team have THOSE skills for I've seen the basketball school called Laurinburg Institute (down here it's known as the Kindergarden of NY).
Posted: March 29, 2008 4:26 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Nobody gives Memphis credit because they have NOT beaten the best...

They play a crappy schedule...the only really good team that they played before the tournament was Tennessee..and they LOST that game!

I think that against Michigan State was the best they have played all year, and for ONCE this season they impressed me
Posted: March 29, 2008 4:48 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
"They have beaten the best."

Please enlighten us as to whom the best are. Memphis' only notable wins have come against Georgetown and Oklahoma both of whom are now out of the tourney. And their other tough test was a loss at home to Tennessee.

Memphis has truly not played the best.
Posted: March 29, 2008 5:49 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
I'm a KU fan, but I must say I'm nervous. I think KU should win, but I've just been burned too many times in the past. How storybook it would be if Davidson pulls the upset and Curry is propelled into the final four and subsequently the NBA as the world watches his star rise. I hope and pray KU is ready for this guy. He's already put on quite a show.
Posted: March 29, 2008 11:43 PM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Memphis Shmemphis... They're in the tourny and they're ranked #1 in the country...so I dont see where you're getting this "lack of credit" thing. If they win the whole thing I'll give them a thumbs up..until then they've done nothing. GO TEXAS!!!
Posted: March 30, 2008 12:38 AM   by Anonymous Anonymous
Dear ACC fan,

Please don't mention Billy Packer and Clark Kellogg in the same breath. Packer is so self-referential that it drives me crazy; he's all about telling you that he told you something was going to happen. Kellogg enjoys the game and lets the players get their credit, without focusing too much on any one guy.
Posted: March 30, 2008 1:08 AM   by Anonymous Anonymous
As a KU fan I'm also worried about playing Davidson and facing Curry. He's been crazy good this entire tournament, but he's about to face a pretty darn good defensive backcourt. With the previous luck KU's had over the last 20 years, it wouldn't be shocking if Davidson pulled off the 'upset', but I guarantee if KU can win, theres NO way KU loses to unc and roy williams. -Rock Chalk Baby
Posted: March 30, 2008 2:58 AM   by Anonymous Anonymous
KU fan, don't worry. Kansas is the most talented team in the nation, while Davidson is just a decent mid-major. If Self can't get to the Final Four with this team, then he's one lousy coach, because they are loaded, and I don't think that's the case with someone who's won everywhere he's been.
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