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Get inside March Madness with SI.com's Luke Winn in the Tourney Blog, a daily journal of college basketball commentary, on-site reporting and reader-driven discussions.4/06/2008 12:11:00 PM Day 26: Counting Down To The Title Game
The Kansas defense pounced on loose balls all night against North Carolina.Icon SMI
SAN ANTONIO -- Breaking down a title game between the bluebloods and the Blues Machine that just can't be a blowout ...
(Right? Basketball gods, are you listening?)
10. If the score is something like 68-64 on Monday night, don't be shocked. As much as Kansas and Memphis are labeled up-tempo teams because of their race-horse athletes, the real trait they share is elite defense. Coming into the NCAA tournament Kansas had the third-most efficient defense in the country (at 0.836 points allowed per possession) ... and Memphis had the second-most efficient (at 0.824). Only Wisconsin, which ran into the Stephen Curry Steamroller in the Sweet 16, had been ranked higher in points allowed per possession at .817.
As for the "speed" of our two finalists, the Jayhawks ranked 98th in the nation in tempo at the outset of the tourney, and the Tigers ranked 74th. That's a far cry from North Carolina's game-pace, which ranked seventh. The point here: The evidence is stacked pretty highly against this game reaching the 80s.
9. Kansas' defense was record-books good on Saturday, holding North Carolina to just 0.831 points per possession in an 84-66 win. Alone, that stat means little to most of you, so here's some context. The Tar Heels' next-worst offensive performance all season was 0.930 PPP in a win over Ohio State in November. Even that figure, projected out over a 70-possession game, is seven points better than UNC's efficiency against the Jayhawks.
To find another instance of the Heels' offense being rendered that ineffective ... you have to go back to a loss at USC on Dec. 21, 2005, when UNC had just 0.748 PPP in a 74-59 loss. That was Tyler Hansbrough's eighth game at Carolina.
8. The best non-numerical way to sum up the Jayhawk D, from Carolina's Wayne Ellington: "They just came out, they jumped on us. They hit us between the eyes." Thus the 40-12 start.
7. As long as Memphis keeps the ball in the hands of Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose, free throws won't be a factor. The 12th-worst free-throw shooting team in the country -- tied with winless New Jersey Institute of Technology at 61.3 percent! -- had 23 attempts from the charity stripe against UCLA. The Tigers made 20 of them ... and every one was taken by either Derrick Rose (11-of-12) or Douglas-Roberts (9-of-11). Memphis coach John Calipari has long been espousing the theory that his team knocks them down when it counts. "Tough-minded players," he said, referring to his star guards, "will make free throws."
6. While we're on that free-throw subject ... it was first pointed out over at Basketball Prospectus that Memphis had a weird tournament identity for a team that was terrible at free-throws all season long: They've drawn fouls and got to the line at an absurd rate. The Tigers rank 186th nationally in free-throw rate -- calculated by made free-throws divided by field-goal attempts -- at 24.9 percent. Yet during the dance their free-throw rate has been off-the-charts high:
5. Part of this is because Memphis has taken huge leads and forced teams (particularly the Spartans and Longhorns) to resort to hack-a-thons late in the game. But Calipari said their strategy, even against UCLA, was to get fouled. "We were trying to get our guys to beat people off the dribble, and not let them chest bump you," he said. "We tried to get by them, so if they pushed, it was a foul."
Rd. Opponent FT Rate Opp. FT Rate
1 UT-Arlington 64.8 38.2
2 Miss. State 50.8 33.3
S16 Mich. State 59.3 28.8
EE Texas 69.2 13.0
FF UCLA 35.9 20.3
4. Another window into KU's defense from Roy Williams, explaining how the Heels were too flustered to stick to their game plan: "We talked about [how] we can't take quick shots. And we took quick shots. We talked about that you have to be strong with the ball. We let them take it away from us twice -- just reach in and take our ball. We talked about coming to meet the pass. We threw it to one of our post players inside. He just stood there. [Kansas'] guy came to meet it more than he did and got the ball. We said you can't dribble between two perimeter players because [KU] does a great job of getting back, getting their hands involved. We did that twice and lost it. We said if you're a post player, you have one dribble, that's it. Second or third play of the game, we have a post player that dribbles it the second time -- [and the] third time they're taking it to the other end."
3. Chris Douglas-Roberts is insanely effective from inside the arc. He's made 58.2 percent of his two-point attempts on the season, which would be a good percentage for a center. Check out how the trendsetter for the Floater Generation stacks up against Kansas' more perimeter-oriented guards:
Chris Douglas-Roberts has proven effective inside and outside the three-point line.Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images
2. Joey Dorsey can make one-dimensional basketball look beautiful. There were three occasions this season where he had 15 or more rebounds but not a double-double, but Saturday's 15-board, zero-point effort was a thing of beauty. (Even though, as he said, Calipari was yelling at him "the whole time.")
Player 2-PT% 3-PT%
C. Douglas-Roberts 58.2 41.7
Mario Chalmers 56.8 47.3
Russell Robinson 55.2 31.8
Sherron Collins 53.6 36.6
Brandon Rush 44.0 42.3Joey Dorsey's best one-dimensional games
1. Two overlooked reasons why I think this game can avoid an early-death proclamation from Billy Packer: Memphis won't be able to guard Kansas like it did UCLA, just focusing on two players (Darren Collison and Kevin Love) while sacrificing D on everyone else. The Jayhawks have enough weapons other than Chalmers and Rush to keep defenses honest. On the other side, I don't think there's a chance of Kansas getting off to another big early lead, either. The Tigers have been a killer first-half team over the past two weeks, because, as Rose says, they don't hold back. "We just come out and attack."
Date/Opponent Rebs Pts
1/30 vs. Houston 22 6
1/23 vs. Tulsa 19 2
4/5 vs. UCLA 15 0
(And if you were looking for a prediction ... be patient. It's coming on Monday morning.)Labels: Final Four, Kansas, Memphis
posted by Luke Winn | View comments (21) |
21 Comments:
Was there any doubt that Carolina was going to go on a run as soon as Packer said that? Both Pack and KU were probably just thinking the same thing, but still, he would have had a lot of explaining to do had UNC pulled it out.I am a Kansas Fan. Memphis is going to be a tough match up for us. But we are going to blow them away.This tourney ended with the best four teams, and now the best two teams, fighting for the championship. Isn't that the way it should be? Why can't football have a similar system, one with at least some degree of logic? Here's a good debate about college post season, b-ball vs football:
http://digits.hrblock.com/ssDigits/digits.php?rType=1&sPath=1703&sNode=1703&uId=286To the anonymous Kansas fan that said Kansas will blow Memphis away! You have lost your mind! It will be Memphis who blows Kansas away!I am also a Kansas fan. Even after last night's game, I'm not ready to say we will blow Memphis away. Either team could pull it out.Kansas showed what a sham UNC was. The only reason UNC got to the final four was because of the weak teams they played on the way.Billy Packer is an idiot. Period. If the same KU team shows up Monday night that showed Saturday night or at the Big 12 championship game against Texas, I think we have a chance. Any other KU team show up, and I think it's going to be a long night for this Jayhawk fan.
Rock Chalk Jayhawk!If you blow them away it isnt a tough match upKansas fan says they will blow Memphis away??? I don't think so!
Look for the Memphis guards to control the ball and the game!As a long time KU fan and a long-time respecter of John Calipari, I'm hoping for a game that shows off both teams athleticism and speed.
I'll root for KU but won't be in the least disappointed if Memphis makes some history. I've had the good fortune of seeing most of Memphis' games and came to really appreciate the talents of Rose and CDR.
But as the anonymous poster above says, if Good Kansas shows up, there's not a team in the country that can match up.Memphis is going to make Kansas cry!!!Sorry, but PPP can't factor in a horrid shooting night. Relating PPP to defense is assuming that a constant ratio of shots were missed because of the actions of the other team, when it might have more to do some nights with the randomness of shooting. A really good defensive statistic would keep track of contested vs. uncontested shots, etc., even though that would make it pretty subjective.Memphis -- CDR, Dorsey, and Rose - along with the ENTIRE bench -- 'nuff said!remember this fans. billy packer has an acc bias as big as a school bus. i do not particularly care for his game calling because of these biases. that said when he said it was over you had to believe him. north carolina was humiliated in the first half. great teams make great runs though and you have to pride carolina on its run. but kansas is scary good. this will be one of the best championship games ever. sit back and enjoy.Kansas is facing two men capable of double digit scoring to stop.
Memphis is facing 4 men, that avg. double digit per game.
Dorsey has done well slamming his 6'9" 270 lb. mass into the opposition, wearing them down.
KU has 4 men that could bump and wear him down;
Aldrich, Cole C 6'11" 240 Fr
Arthur, Darrell F 6'9" 225 So
Jackson, Darnell F 6'8" 250 Sr
Kaun, Sasha C 6'11" 250 Sr
The outcome is not easy to predict!
kbpGreat victory by KU. I had my 4 year old saying Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk during the game (I can't stand UNC). I think that the refs kept UNC in that game, especially during the first half. There were fouls called on KU that were suspect, and UNC was let go with no-calls in the same situations. By the way, I'm not a KU fan either. I'm looking forward to a great game tonight. I hope that Kansas watched plenty of that Ms. State game, because that team had the best chance at beating Memphis up to this point.This game is going to come down to the team who stops dribble penatration and who creates the most turnovers. Neither team shoots a lot of 3's but both teams can get jumpshot happy. Dorsey and Dozer can't get into foul trouble and the Kansas cant overcomitt when the Memphis guards get into the lane. I dont see a blow out either way but I give the edge to Memphis. It will be hard for Kansas to play man to man defense for 40 min against Memphis. KU outlasted a gased UNC team who had to big of an whole to climb out of. They want do that to Memphis b/c they are just as good defensively as KU.Memphis has shut up the experts. Now they are joining the bandwagon!
Memphis has the best team in college basketball. No doubt. They will destroy Kansas just like they did UCLA,Texas,Michigan State,Miss.St., and Texas Arlington.
C'mon! you know!!!I don't think Kansas could beat Miss State. They put Miss State in Memphis bracket to knock them off. Had MSU been in Kansas bracket, they would have beaten KU.just one comment
GO TIGERS GO!!!!i need to down thes gameReporting From ...
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