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Get inside March Madness with SI.com's Luke Winn in the Tourney Blog, a daily journal of college basketball commentary, on-site reporting and reader-driven discussions.
Musing On A Miracle ... And A Top 10 for 2008-09
SAN ANTONIO -- The hoops world is not ready to move on from Mario's Miracle just yet. It's unlikely that anyone packing up and leaving Alamo-land this morning -- from the media to the Kansas and Memphis contingents -- can get Monday night's drama out of their heads. I'm just a greenhorn at this Final Four business (2008 was my fourth at SI), but I think this was a title-game finish for the ages, this decade's closest answer to the Keith Smart shot that stunned Syracuse when I was just 6 years old. There are certain things from Monday's finish that I'll forever remember: my vantage point on Mario Chalmers' three, from two rows back and to the left of Packer & Nantz; standing next to Chalmers and his mother, Almarie, as they embraced courtside; listening to Ronnie Chalmers in the Kansas locker room as he recounted sitting with Mario in the Alamodome at the 2004 Final Four, and how his son said that he would be playing for a championship some day. After watching two straight Final Fours full of blowouts, this was the payoff, the long-awaited shining moment. The image in my head of Chalmers' shot is vivid enough to still give me goosebumps at 11 a.m. on Tuesday. And perhaps that's why I'm stuck on it; because any picture I try to form of next season is incredibly unclear. There's a chance that the Jayhawks could lose their entire starting five: Darnell Jackson and Russell Robinson are graduating, Brandon Rush is going pro, Darrell Arthur is leaning that way, and even the miracle man -- who wasn't thought to be potential early draft entrant as of last week -- is considering making the jump to the NBA. If Chalmers were to return for his senior season, though, he could lead the Revenge of the Upperclassmen. The second straight tidal wave of one-and-done freshmen -- from Memphis' Derrick Rose, to UCLA's Kevin Love, to Kansas State's Michael Beasley -- are uniformly expected to enter June's draft. For the past two seasons one could scan a list of top recruits and envision how the college hoops landscape would soon be altered. Last April one could see that Love would boost the Bruins and Rose would take Memphis over the top, and I ran a top 10 in the magazine that nailed the '08 Final Four. As much as I'd like to pat myself on the back, those were not difficult predictions. Examine the incoming recruits for '08, though, and you'll see that there is no truly transcendent rookie on the horizon. There are a few good ones -- such as McDonald's All-American game MVP Tyreke Evans, who might soon be bound for Memphis or Villanova, and Jrue Holiday, who should fill UCLA's expected backcourt vacancy -- but there is no Greg Oden or Derrick Rose. Teams will rely on upperclassmen to save them. Perhaps Super Mario can come to the rescue once again? And if not him, what about North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, Texas' D.J. Augustin, UConn's Hasheem Thabeet, UCLA's Darren Collison and Russell Westbrook, and West Virginia's Joe Alexander? Their pro decisions will matter more than anyone else's. In writing a top 10 for next season so early (a practice we can mutually acknowledge the absurdity of, but at the same time admit that we're reasonably interested in) it's necessary to make a few educated guesses. And so on top of the players who have already declared, I'm assuming there will be a few more. Among them: Memphis' Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts, Kansas State's Michael Beasley and Bill Walker, UCLA's Love and Collison, Kansas' Arthur, USC's O.J. Mayo and Texas' Augustin. Everything will fall into place over the next three weeks. Until then, this is my best assessment: 1. NORTH CAROLINA - Will leaving San Antonio empty-handed inspire key Tar Heels to stay for another season? Hansbrough could become the first back-to-back Naismith Award winner since Ralph Sampson’s three-peat (1981–83) -- and along with Lawson, make another run at the title. If Ty takes off for the NBA, leaving UNC to make do with senior-to-be Bobby Frasor and incoming recruit Larry Drew at point guard, that championship will be more difficult to attain. 2. UCONN - The 87-inch question in Storrs is: Will Big East defensive player of the year Hasheem Thabeet (147 blocks) return and make the Huskies a title contender? Point guard A.J. Price (torn left ACL) is expected back for the ’08 opener. 3. UCLA - The next wave of Bruins backcourt stars -- led by polished combo guard Jrue Holiday -- arrives as part of Rivals.com's No. 2–ranked recruiting class. The pairing of Holiday with Russell Westbrook should keep UCLA atop the Pac-10. 4. PURDUE - Big Ten hegemony could begin here for coach Matt Painter, whose precocious band of underclassmen -- led by freshman guards (and former AAU teammates) E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel -- came within one win of a conference title in ’08. 5. KANSAS - Senior All-Americas are a dying breed, but KU should have one in point guard Mario Chalmers -- plus a breakout star in Sherron Collins, who finished an injury-riddled season with a superb performance off the bench in the title game. 6. TEXAS - The Horns have nearly every piece of the championship puzzle: a three-point marksman (A.J. Abrams), a glue guy (Justin Mason), two versatile forwards (Damion James and Connor Atchley) ... but no tested point guard if Augustin bolts. 7. WEST VIRGINIA - If late-season sensation Alexander, a 6-foot-8 forward, sticks around for his senior year and teams up with top recruit Kevin Jones, a 6-7 forward, the Mountaineers will have a potent one-two punch in the frontcourt. 8. GEORGETOWN - Greg Monroe is no Greg Oden, but the 6-10 forward from Harvey, La., is the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2008 and will help fill the void left by center Roy Hibbert's graduation. Look for unsung point guard Jessie Sapp to emerge as the Hoyas' MVP. 9. DUKE - The Blue Devils lose DeMarcus Nelson (graduation) and Taylor King (transfer) -- and Mike Krzyzewski could tire after coaching the U.S. team in Beijing -- but the nucleus for a Final Four team, including versatile forwards Kyle Singler and Gerald Henderson, remains. 10. TENNESSEE - Junior-to-be forward Tyler Smith has All-America potential, but landing a five-star recruit --shooting guard Scotty Hopson -- on April 1 was huge for the Vols, who need scoring power after losing seniors Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith. The rest of the top 30: Notre Dame, Michigan State, Pittsburgh, USC, Ohio State, Syracuse, Memphis, Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Davidson, Marquette, Villanova, Baylor, Gonzaga, BYU, Wisconsin, Xavier, Louisville, Clemson.
posted by Luke Winn | View comments (169) |
169 Comments:All I Can say is WOW!! Rock Chalk!
If Blake Griffin returns to Oklahoma with the addition of Willie Warren they will crash your Top 30, very likely Top 20.
9 Big East teams in your Top 30. Best conference in college basketball!
What about Indiana? New coach, 5 new starters...that's the recipe for success.
How can you not have Syracuse listed as a top 5 team? This years team marched to the NIT quarterfinals and did not lose anybody. They return 7 potential NBA players and 4 McDonalds All-Americans. There are thousands of fans all over upstate NY who are now on suicide watch.
I would have thought that Wake Forest, which has the number 1ranked incoming recruiting class, and a solid core of returning juniors and sophomores would have least ranked in your top 30...
UGA! UGA!
This is absolutely ridiculous. The buckeyes should for sure be in next years top 10. They are losing Butler and Hunter and thats it. Evan turner should explode next year, diebler is a better player than he played in limited minutes this year, kofous will be back, lighty will look to have a better season...oh yea, and we are getting another 7 footer which will slide kofous to the 4 (where he will be much more able to play his game). Come on.
As a UCLA fan, I'm not sure that they will be top 5 material. Considering that their 4 and 5 positions will be comprised of Mbah a Moute, Drew Gordon, and James Keefe (and possibly Alfred Aboya if he does graduate work), I'm not sure that will be enough size and offensive skill. They will have great guards, between Westbrook (if he returns), Malcolm Lee, Jrue Holiday, Michael Roll, and others, but I don't think they will be able to get by the bigger teams. The only good thing is that the Pac-10 won't be very good next year. UCLA's primary obstacles for the Pac-10 championship will be USC and Arizona.
It's time for another Duke championship - it should happen during the career of Singler.
You have left out Southern Illinois. The two most decorated recruits in their history arrive this fall.
Michigan State should be in the top 5, as well as Duke.
Where is Arizona on this list. They have everyone returning except Bayless who will be replaced by the even better Brandon Jennings who I was very surprised was not mentioned amongst your stars coming in 2008. Lets not forget to mention mention the Seven footer Jeff Withey and 6'6 PF Emmanuel Negedu. You might want to start re-thinking your list. Bear Down!!!
hey dookie, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but your boys aren't even sniffing a title anytime soon, short of signing Derrick Favors.
And as long as he meets Wojo during the recruiting process, that's not happening either. GO BOILERS!!
Nice to see Baylor in consideration for the top 25. We've got alot of talent coming back next year.
Sic 'em Bears!!! Wake will be a surprise team next year and a 4 seed in the NCAA.
I think past years demonstrate that if someone "might" be leaving for the NBA at the end of the tournament, they're 85% certain to go. "This is absolutely ridiculous. The buckeyes should for sure be in next years top 10."
are you drunk? you're losing 2 of your best players. koufos might jump to the nba. even if he doesn't, you expect to jump from the NIT to a top 10 team? hate to break it to you, every team is getting recruits, a lot of teams ahead of ohio st. this year are losing fewer players. ohio st. will be in contention for a tourney spot, but that's it. lol @ Southern Illinois being in the top 30. Do you even wathc college basketball? Creighton and Drake will both be ahead of the Salukis come this time next year. Count on it.
Blake GRiffin and Willie Warren your talking top ten
UAB will be in the Elite 8 next year. We return All-conference SG, Paul Delaney, and get back possible future NBA 1st round pick, Walter Sharpe.
it's time for duke to get dropped from being a default top-10 preseason team as they have been for the last 20 years. they were bad last year, they were bad this year, and they'll be bad next year. nelson is a big loss. paulus is mediocre at everything but shooting. they have an absolutely terrible frontcourt. too many problems with their perimeter defense- especially with no interior help.
they'll be lucky to be top-25 Memphis in the top 30?! I sir, believe you are very wrong. Memphis will be in the top 5. Yes, They may have lost last night. But they have the longest winning season in history.
I am the Anonymous Kansas Fan who said that KU is going to blow Memphis. Guess what, it happened. Yes it was not a big margin victory but the come back was more than a blow out.
C'mon Luke, do some research. Arizona State loses NO ONE in its top-8, brings back what will be the player of the year in the PAC-10 in 2008-09 (Harden,) and will be playing with a HUGE chip on its shoulder for getting snubbed by the selection committee. Mark my words, ASU will challenge UCLA for the conference title, but regardless, the Sun Devils are a DEFINITE top-30 team.
BOILER UP!
Miami?
Arizona St? UAB? Are you kidding me... DAVIDSON at 21???!! After Stephen Curry's brilliant display (and he is returning)during the NCAA run, we should all recognize that those games vs. Duke, UNC, and UCLA were no flukes!!
They should be much higher!! Sweet Caroline! don't forget the U
I think southern north dakota tech (west campus) will take the whole thing.
Yah Oklahoma has a great chance to get into the upper echelon of the big 12, as long as Blake comes back, austin johnson can move back to shooting guard with warren at point, tony crocker with another year of experience and tayler as one of the moral leaders as wel as great defense, top 25 for sure.
FLORIDA? You've got to be kidding me! I'm an alum and that garbage I watched this year made me sick. They shouldn't be mentioned in anyone's rankings until those high school All America recruits prove they can play at the D1 level. They sure cast some doubts on their abilities this year. Here's to hopefully eating my own words next season....Go Gators!
If you didn't make the tournament, you do not belong in next year's top 10. You were not one of the best 35 at large teams in the country at the end of the year, and unless you have a Kevin Love or Derrick Rose type coming in (which no one does) your incoming class will not put you there. Get realistic about your team.
I think you might have Duke a little too high...
BYU over UNLV in the top 30. I guess the last two tournaments haven't taught you anything.
To the Syracuse fan below who believes they should be in the Top 5...WOW! With all those McD All-Americans, where was 'Cuse this year?
I am a Boiler fan and think they will be much improved for 08 but to deserve this lofty ranking they need to add a solid post man. Here is hoping they find one.
Duke will be champions real soon once again!!!
Biggest surprise I would have to say is a Sweet 16 team, Villanova, losing absolutely no one is only an honorable mention. Compare them to a team like Ohio State who is practically losing no one as well and they need to project better.
I think Clemson is a stretch for top 30. They lose Mays, Hammond and Booker. I'm not sure their replacements will be at that level next year.
I agree too that Wake should be considered here as well as Virginia Tech. Both were young teams that didn't lose much and brought in great recruits. Both teams should be dancing next March. UNLV is going to be a sleeper once again, like they have been the past 2 seasons!! always overlooked but they will be a top 25 team
I am a HUGE Duke fan so this may come as a shock...I think #9 could be a bit high. They have not shown the ability to play hard in FEB/MAR the last few years. Without any new BIGS coming in I just hope the guards can keep their legs fresh for the tourney so they can make those 3's. If that can happen, look out!
Siena Saints 2009, everyone coming back and jackson coming up....beasts of the maac
Arizona State should be in top 30!! Everyone is coming back!
Where the hell is Arizona State in the top 30 being one the most improved teams in the pac-10 with none of their starters leaving for graduation.
Not a real bad prediction, but I see they still aren't giving Davidson and Memphis the respect they deserve. These teams are for REAL. They aren't a fluke but two of the best teams in the country.
Oh, well, after they kick a few top 10 butts like they did this year, I guess they will move up where they belong in the standings. Mark why is Kentucky always automatically assumed to be a top 30 program before each season? they barely made the ncaa's this year and they lose two of their top 3 players. The only guy they have coming in is DeAndre Liggins, but no point guard. It just doesn't add up
Nobody will put them up this high yet, but watch out for the WILDCATS! UK is about to come on strong with Jodie Meeks's return from injury, Patrick Patterson remaining dominant, and Perry Stevenson's enormous improvement. Plus, Derrick Jasper will return at full speed after playing this past season with a bad knee. And when you add in Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins coming in, Kentucky is going to be strong.
Purdon't will be lucky to finish 4th in the conference.
Yea Syracuse sucked this year but considering they lost devendorf and routins early in the season, they did better than expected. unless your name is carmelo, freshmans usually dont lead their teams to glory. I dont think they should be in the Top 5 but watch out for cuse next year.
GO BIG BLUE! The University of Kentucky Wildcats will win another national championship in the next 5 years GUARANTEED. Patrick Patterson, Jodie Meeks, Derrick Jasper and Perry Stevenson are all a solid core of vets and throw in Darius Miller and Deandre Liggins and next season could be one to remember
I write this from the campus of the University of Kansas. We are #1. We have once again proven we house as elite NCAA Basketball Program. What a fun ride it has been. We had our doubters, called the underdog at every turn. Now we look forward to hoisting another National Championship Banner atop the rafters in Allen Fieldhouse, Home of the Jayhawks!!! Rock Chalk Jayhawk, GO KU!!!!!!!!! Thanks, Mario!!
Watch Syracuse next year, if Donte Greene wisens up and stays. Greene, Floyd, Devendorf, Onuaku, Paul Harris, Routins, and the 2 incoming kids (Mookie Jones and Kris Joseph) form the best assortment of talent there since Coleman/Owens/Douglas/Seikaly/Stevie Thompson
If Crean would have stayed Marquette is top 10 easy. 4 starters resturning, and 3 of them are 4 years starters and 1,000 point scoreres already.
'Cuse was hurt this season without Devendorf--who went down in game 10--as well as Rautins, their Junior sharpshooter who didn't play a single minute. Add those 2 guys, both of whom are potential NBA players, and you have a completely different team. Honestly, Cuse has a good chance to make the Final Four, if not win it all...
As a part of college radio- you have an impressive playlist. Well played, Luke.
HOW ABOUT THEM DAWGS?!?!
UGA! UGA! Billy Gillispie ... UK. Kentucky has won championships under Adolph Rupp (1948, 1949, 1951, 1958), Joe B. Hall (1978), Rick Pitino (1996), and Tubby Smith (1998). Since 1931, only one coach at UK failed to win a championship, and he was there only 3 years. Gillispie will hang an eighth championship banner from the rafters in Rupp before 2012, and will make the Final Four (at least) next year.
If baylor had a coach then maybe they could get in the TOp 30
How could you not have Pitt. They're returning practically every player and had a great season on a "down year." Dixon will have this team ready to play.
I was SO proud of my Jayhawks, and always expect them to be in the top 10. But, I was massively impressed by little Davidson this year, who almost knocked us off at the Final Four. Don't know if any of those guys are returning, but they played as well as anyone in the tourney.
Still on that "Purdue will be a Big Ten dynasty" kick, eh?
I still don't buy it, although they should be in the running again next season. With WI having only two new starters, one of whom as already proven himself, I give them to edge to repeat. Common Wake Forest is atleast in the top 30
You left Virginia Tech out of your top 30? So you haven't considered the fact that 50 percent of their minutes came from freshmen. And they lose only one starter in Deron Washington.
Although looking @ your top 30, there are probably only two teams I can think of that you might consider dropping, Baylor or Xavier, with the loses of 3 seniors (one being Drew Lavender). Where's Wake Forest?
Did someone really just say the Big East is the best conference. What? Most overrated proven again. 1 team in the Elite 8 and they were destroyed. Real powerhouse. Thier new slogan..."The Big East", where ten slightly better than average schools w/ different skill sets trick people into thinking its still the 80s and their still decent."
what about GT? the Yellow Jackets sting is back. they should of beat UNC.
Wow I can't see how you can put WVU in the top 10 in front of Duke, Tenn, N Dame, Mich St, Pitt, USC, OSU, or Syracuse. WVU gets one good player(all of the other teams have players coming in equal to or better than Jones by the way) to team up with Alexander and they're 7?! Please.
Yeah not having UNLV in your top 30 is just ignorant. They have a stud seven foot center coming in along with returning star Wink Adams. Might want to do a little more research before making these predictions.
Indiana should be in the top 25 and make a run in the NCAA tourney.
Wait. I forgot about the impending sanctions. Oh well. GO MU! Not real happy about MU's choice for new coach but if they can hold on to their top two incoming recruits and last season's freshman Mbakwe(spent most of year injured), it wont matter who coaches these guys. McNeal, Matthews, and James along with rising star Lazar Hayward, should be a scary group but the Big East doesnt give you any nights off
Duke, are you kidding? What have they shown that they should be in the Top 10? Nelson won them games this year, as much as I hate to admit it, losing their only athlete other than Henderson is not a good thing.
When will Wisconsin finally start getting the respect they deserve for consistently turning out top 10 teams? Talk about a program that re-loads year after year. Harris, Wilkinson, Tucker, Butch-next year it will be Landry and Hughes. They don't need to depend on a miracle freshman to light their way into the top 10, but if they land one it might finally put Bo Ryan in the Final Four.
Where is Miami? We lost King and that is it. We gain 4 new big guys and DaQuan Jones. Jack McClinton returns with every other key player. We spent time in the top 25 with this team and got a 7 seed yet with another year of experience we are going to fall? Riiiiiight
Boiler Up!
BYU Sucks! How long has it been since they've won a tournament game? Susan Lucci thinks they are overdue to win. LOSERS!!!!
Hey Luke! Davidson's not in your 2008/2009 pre-season top 20, after all the Cats did in this year's tournament? Come on, buddy, we played champion Kansas tougher than anyone. At least we know there is one prognostication about Davidson basketball in 2008/2009 that will be indisputable: We will be the only Division I team whose average combined SAT score will be higher than our total student enrollment. And, I've also heard that our basketball team's average GPA this year was higher than that of the overall student body. To paraphrase the film Good Will Hunting, our boys are wicked smart. And, they play great team basketball. I'd put them in the 2008/2009 pre-season top 15.
All I can |
