Huddle Up

Tough luck Donovan

2007-05-09T13:59:00.000-04:00

Donovan McNabb said he was "shocked" the Eagles selected a quarterback in the second round of last week's draft.

Simon Bruty/SI

Ten days after the draft, the one pick that still is causing a stir is the Eagles' selection of quarterback Kevin Kolb with the No. 36 overall pick. Donovan McNabb said he was shocked by the pick, but would do his best to help the rookie. But it didn't take long for the media to create a minor storm in Philly.

I don't think there will be an old-fashioned QB controversy any time soon. This is McNabb's team and he's still a Pro Bowl-level player. But I do think we can read a lot into what the selection means and it's not all good for McNabb.

1. McNabb is not going to get Tom Brady-Peyton Manning money.
Philadelphia papers reported contract talks between McNabb and the Eagles didn't go very well last fall before he tore his ACL. McNabb is due $5.5 million this year, $6.3 million in '08 and close to $20 million combined for '09 and '10 -- money he wouldn't likely see. Philly is known for drafting players at positions where veterans are facing tough negotiations (e.g. taking Ryan Moats while they had Brian Westbrook) and not showing much love for veterans over 30. McNabb is 30.

2. Kolb is the real deal.
Although the Eagles may very well have considered McNabb's contract, don't think that means Kolb is merely a bargaining chip. The Eagles probably had Kolb ranked higher than Brady Quinn and knew several other teams were interested in taking the Houston QB. The NFL Network's Adam Schefter reported one team -- my guess is the Jaguars -- had Kolb ranked as the 12th best player in the draft. One source close to Kolb told me the Patriots were looking closely at him and were a candidate to take him at No. 28 before they dealt the pick (talk about a selection that would have raised eyebrows). The Packers were also interested in Kolb (sorry Aaron Rodgers). The fact that teams like New England and Philly liked him is a great sign. I think the Eagles believe they drafted a future Pro Bowl quarterback, which is the NFL's most precious commodity.

3. For better or worse, the Eagles are comfortable with their WR corps.
They had a shot at Robert Meachem, Craig Davis and Anthony Gonzalez with the No. 26 pick before they traded it to Dallas. Then they could have selected Sidney Rice, Steve Smith or Dwayne Jarrett at No. 36. They head into camp with Kevin Curtis, Reggie Brown, Bethel Johnson, Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett at receiver. The only receiver that has really jelled with McNabb as a No. 1 receiver is Terrell Owens and there isn't a receiver half as good as T.O. in Eagles camp. This is one issue McNabb definitely has a right to be concerned about.

4. The Eagles aren't comfortable with McNabb's lack of durability.
McNabb appears on track to recover from his ACL injury and be on the field midway through the preseason. But he has played more than 10 games in only two of the last five seasons.

5. The Eagles may be rethinking their offense after last year.
Maybe they learned something when Jeff Garcia was at the helm. McNabb even admitted Philly was scoring too quickly last season when he was racking up huge numbers before the injury. Kolb doesn't have anywhere near the arm strength of McNabb, but Kolb's accuracy makes him a great fit for the kind of ball-control offense the Eagles used to win their last five games of '07.

Why Quinn fell

2007-04-30T16:16:00.001-04:00

The Browns traded for the No. 22 pick to draft Brady Quinn.

Brady Quinn's dramatic fall is still the story of the draft. With a day of hindsight, these are my main reasons the Notre Dame quarterback lasted until No. 22.

1. Coaches have too much pressure to win and can't take time to develop QBs: Several of the teams that passed on Quinn have short windows to be successful before eager owners call for a coaching change. It seems like every coach in the top half of the first round isn't far from the hot seat: Lane Kiffin (the Raiders' seat is always hot), Rod Marinelli (assuming Matt Millen's days are limited), Romeo Crennel, Jon Gruden, Brad Childress, etc.

2. Quinn didn't play well against pressure last season: He looked frazzled against teams with great pass rushes: Georgia Tech, Michigan, UCLA (until the end when the Bruins went into a prevent), USC and LSU. True, his offensive line had several issues, but a first-round worthy pick should be able to keep his composure. The Sugar Bowl in particular hurt Quinn (15-for-35 for 148 yards, two TDs and two INTs), because LSU has a speedy NFL-style defense.

3. Quinn didn't participate in the Senior Bowl: He missed the annual event with a minor injury, most likely at the advice of his agent Tom Condon. His absence was particularly important because he didn't end his college career well. Another Condon client, Eli Manning also skipped the Senior Bowl, but he was still taken No. 1, which might have been a mistake in the long run. Quinn's fall should be a warning to top quarterbacks next year who think about sitting out pre-draft events if they didn't end their seasons on the right note.

4. Tom Brady: Even with the success of last year's rookie quarterbacks, teams around the league still mimic the Patriots and believe they can get a Super Bowl quarterback in lower rounds. As offenses get more complex, the quarterback position is more about brains than brawn, so amazing physical skills aren't as valued in signal-callers. Again, that's why a QB's performance in a week of Senior Bowl practices is more important than the combine or any other physical workout.

5. Charlie Weis: On one hand, scouts said Quinn was more NFL-ready because he played under Weis at Notre Dame. But maybe teams thought Quinn's success was more because of Weis' acumen than the quarterback's skill.

6. Need: Teams can only carry three quarterbacks, and the teams picking between No. 10 and No. 22 this year were set at quarterback. I don't love the QB situations in places like Buffalo, Carolina, St. Louis and Jacksonville, but those teams didn't want to invest in more arms.

Will Pats' dynasty survive?

2007-04-29T13:39:00.000-04:00

Randy Moss had just 42 catches for 553 yards with the Raiders last season.

John Iacono/SI

A sleepy Radio City Music Hall became a lot more animated after the Randy Moss trade. I was surprised by how many critics of the deal immediately emerged. One sportswriter instantly labeled them the "New England Yankees," and another said under his breath, "I hope this is the move that finally pushes this team over the edge and ends the Belichick dynasty." Another long-time observer of the Patriots said there's no way vice president Scott Pioli was behind this move, because it goes against everything their management team believes in.

New England built its dynasty on chemistry. The Pats haven't had more talent than everyone else, but they've had a nice system and players happy to do what Bill Belichick wanted. They remind me of Bill Walsh's 49ers. New England thrives on discipline and all its players look better than they actually are because they stick to the system.

Now Belichick is really testing his ability to keep the system in place by taking talented players he could get a little cheaper because of character questions. Belichick seemed a bit distracted last season. He certainly wasn't on his A game in that debacle in Indy. He was playing not to lose when the Pats blew a 21-3 lead.

As I wrote earlier, I still think New England is the prohibitive favorite to win Super Bowl XLII. But Belichick is going to have to keep a tight ship in Foxboro. If chemistry problems emerge, I'd expect Belichick to simply cut players mid-season like he did with Doug Gabriel last season.

There's no question the Pats are the team to watch in 2007. Let me know if you think they're going to win it all.

Getting Moss seems unfair

2007-04-29T11:26:00.000-04:00

The Patriots appear to be on the verge of acquiring Randy Moss, a move that should solidify their status as the 2007 Super Bowl favorites.

New England is confident its culture of winning can help transform players with questionable characters into champions. The Pats did so with Corey Dillon a few years ago and they drafted the controversial Miami safety Brandon Meriweather in the first round of this draft.

This is a team that should have defeated Indianapolis in the AFC Championship Game and would have easily beaten the Bears in the Super Bowl. The Patriots only needed a slight tweak to climb back to the top of the AFC. Instead, they went all out and brought in Moss, linebacker Adalius Thomas and receivers Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth. And they appear to be having another great draft.

The big question about Moss is whether he has lost a step and if he can accept a reduced role in New England's offense. The Pats love to spread the ball around, while Moss thinks he's open on every play. But coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, who reportedly pushed for the Moss trade, set the tone in that locker room and should be able to handle the controversial wide receiver.

Moss reportedly will restructure his contract, so this isn't a huge risk for the Patriots. I think it will be hard to label a bigger winner than New England this offseason. I feel bad for the Colts, who may have a short run as NFL champion. And I feel really bad for the Jets, who can't get a break in the AFC East.

Do you think this move makes the Pats the team to beat in the AFC?

Eight intriguing second-day prospects

2007-04-29T10:10:00.000-04:00

Several very productive rookies were selected in Rounds 4 through 7 last year, including Texans TE Owen Daniels, Saints OT Jahri Evans, Jets RB Leon Washington, DE Elvis Dumervil, Colts S Antoine Bethea and Saints WR Marques Colston.

Let's take a look at eight players who have a chance to be this year's second-day gems:

1. Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State: Pittman rushed for over 1,200 yards his last two seasons at Ohio State and ran a 4.4 40 at the combine. He should go very quickly on Sunday.

2. Brian Robison, DE/LB, Texas: Robison started off as a linebacker at Texas and then became a productive defensive lineman. He's extremely strong and should be a good role player in a 3-4 defense.

3. Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware: The best tight end still available on most draft boards, Patrick has good pass-catching skills and could make an immediate impact like Owen Daniels did with the Texans.

4. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State: Teams seem to be concerned about Smith's height (6-0) and he has steadily fallen throughout the pre-draft process. He does have mobility and other short quarterbacks have thrived lately. Best-case scenario, he's similar to Drew Brees.

5. Zak DeOssie, LB, Brown: Several teams appear to be interested in the son of former NFL linebacker Steve DeOssie. Zak, at the very least, will contribute immediately on special teams. Expect him to go in the fourth round.

6. Tanard Jackson, CB, Syracuse: Jackson doesn't have burner speed, but he has nice size and decent cover skills, which are always coveted.

7. Antony Arline, CB, Baylor: Not a big name in college, Arline has great measurables -- he's 6-1 and runs a 4.4 40 -- and has shot up draft boards in recent weeks.

8. Brandon Siler, LB, Florida: Teams aren't quite sure if he's big enough to play inside or athletic enough to play outside. But he produced in college and should make a nice complementary player.

Five Unpopular Opinions

2007-04-28T21:09:00.000-04:00

Ted Ginn Jr. was an exciting playmaker at Ohio State, but he wasn't fully healthy for pre-draft workouts.

John Biever/SI

Enough of this feel-good, let's-agree-on-everything chatter. I've already had issues with several things I've heard here at Radio City today. Here are five items that I imagine some of you will take exception to:

1. Ted Ginn Jr. will prove to be a smart pick for Miami
Starting with the Dolphins fans, everyone seems to hate this pick. Maybe I'm trusting what I saw in college too much. I thought Ginn was playing at a different level, like Devin Hester. Speed wins Super Bowls, and the 'Fins probably knew they'd get the QB they wanted in the second round.

2. Someone missed on Brady Quinn
I heard very few voices questioning the Vikings, Bills, Rams, Panthers and Jaguars decision to pass on the Notre Dame quarterback. Reminds me of the free pass the Raiders, Bills and Lions got last year for not taking Matt Leinart. Quinn isn't a perfect prospect, but sometimes you have to take a risk at the most important position on the field.

3. Stop praising the Redskins
Everyone loves that the 'Skins didn't mortgage their future. And everyone also says LaRon Landry is a slam-dunk. He might be very good, but I worry about Washington's offense in 2007.

4. Kevin Kolb was a smart pick for the Eagles
Several writers I spoke to were shocked Philly took the Houston quarterback with the 36th pick. I wrote earlier this week that Kolb had convinced teams he wasn't just a product of his college offense. And he seems like a good fit for Andy Reid's offense. The Jaguars probably would have jumped on Kolb in the second round if Philly hadn't grab him.

5. Amobi Okoye's going to have a rough rookie year
I think teams got nervous about Okoye's age, and for good reason. The 19-year-old will be on his second contract before he really starts to produce. And the Texans face some very good offenses this year.

Anyone care to disagree?

Ready to award Rookie of the Year?

2007-04-28T17:59:00.000-04:00

As the first round comes to an end, I'm going to kick off the first Rookie of the Year debate on the Web:

OFFENSE

1. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (No. 2) -- This one's easy. Johnson and the Lions will rack up yards and points, but they won't stop anyone in 2007.

2. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills (No. 12) -- I thought Willis McGahee should have run for a lot more yards in Buffalo. The speedy Lynch will thrive in this system. And he faces the Jets' rush defense twice.

3. Brian Leonard, RB, Not Picked Yet -- I realize this is a bit of a stretch, but I think whoever takes Leonard will use him often as a receiver and put him in around goal lines. Although he won't have the rushing yards, the touchdowns and catches will get him ROY votes.

DEFENSE

1. Jarvis Moss, DE, Broncos (No. 17) -- I can't get the image of the former Florida Gator terrorizing the Buckeyes in the National Championship Game out of my head. Defensive ends can be productive as rookies, and Moss will be part of a pretty good defense.

2. Jon Beason, LB, Panthers (No. 25) -- I have little faith in concussion-prone Carolina linebacker Dan Morgan's comeback, but I do have faith in anyone other than Morgan who played in the back seven of the Miami Hurricanes' defense.

3. Reggie Nelson, S, Jaguars (No. 19) -- Nelson, another Gator, is a playmaker and he's in the perfect spot to have lots of opportunities. Nelson's not quite Ed Reed, but he'll have a similar impact as Reed does with the Ravens.

Let me know who you like to win rookie honors this year.

Browns go for it

2007-04-28T16:33:00.000-04:00

The Browns are going for broke, and who can blame them. Romeo Crennel knows he has a year to turn it around and that QBs Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson weren't going to get it done.

Now for the bad news -- Quinn will have problems here if he starts from the get-go. Cleveland plays Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice, which is enough to shake the confidence of a veteran quarterback.

I can't see Cleveland winning more than six games in 2007. If they look at the big picture, this was a great day. But unfortunately for Crennel, he may not be there to witness a mature Quinn leading the Browns back to the postseason.

Top Five Surprises of Day 1

2007-04-28T16:05:00.000-04:00

Brady Quinn's drop has been the story of the draft, but there have been other picks that have made jaws drop here at Radio City. Here are my top five so far:

1. Ted Ginn Jr. to the Dolphins over Brady Quinn: Miami must be confident it can get the quarterback it really wants later in the draft. The 'Fins might have had Trent Edwards or John Beck rated higher than Quinn.

2. Lions not trading the rights to Calvin Johnson: Detroit got offers, but apparently none were even close to good enough. But another receiver for the Lions? Matt Millen immediately sent his scouts down to Austin, Texas, to look at stud wideout Limas Sweed, who Detroit will eye at No. 3 next year.

3. Packers taking DT Justin Harrell: Everyone expected Green Bay to give Brett Favre another weapon to play with. And it was surprising Harrell went ahead of Michigan DT Alan Branch. I wonder if teams were concerned about Branch's health and work ethic.

4. Browns passing on QB, RB to take OT Joe Thomas: As the draft approached, I heard differing opinions on Thomas. The offensive tackle appeared to be losing his "slam-dunk" status. But they may have been scared by Adrian Peterson's health and Quinn's potential to be an embarrassing bust.

5. Bills take RB Marshawn Lynch: This move makes perfect sense, but there had been some negative buzz about Lynch, so few had him slotted in the top 12. But you can't argue with his college production.

Which picks have surprised you?

Quinn's tumble

2007-04-28T14:18:00.001-04:00

If I was a top pick, I would be like Joe Thomas and go fishing. I would hate to be Brady Quinn and have all this attention on my flaws as I sit around Radio City. NFL officials just hid him from view here at Radio City, but he still has to be on many teams' minds.

All of a sudden, we're hearing whispers about how other quarterbacks like Trent Edwards, Kevin Kolb and John Beck are just as good as Quinn. And this is a guy who yesterday looked like a real option to go to the Raiders at No. 1.

Picks 11 through 22 look grim for Quinn, barring a potential trade. I would love to see a team with a solid quarterback under contract take the Notre Dame QB just to shake things up. Think about these scenarios:

No. 13: Marc Bulger still puts up great numbers, but he just turned 30 and has had health issues in the past.

No. 14: The Panthers may be hitting themselves for acquiring David Carr. Why not take a risk and add Quinn into the QB mix with Carr and Jake Delhomme?

No. 16: Quinn could compete with Aaron Rodgers for the heir to Brett Favre's throne in Green Bay. Unfortunately, the Packers need to win now and have too many other needs.

No. 17: Quinn actually makes sense here, but the Jags seem to be convinced Byron Leftwich or David Garrard can get the job done.

No. 22: Ya, I know about the Tony Romo lovefest. But once teams saw film on Romo, his production fell off. I think Jerry Jones will be tempted if somehow Quinn falls this low.

My best guess, Carolina pulls the trigger at No. 14. What do you think?

Lions sticking with Johnson

2007-04-28T13:54:00.000-04:00

I love Calvin Johnson. I think he's going to be an All-Pro. I just don't think he's going to help the Lions win games.

SI.com's Peter King reported the Lions will hold on to Johnson since no team could get close on a trade offer.

I'm sure offensive coordinator Mike Martz sold Matt Millen and the Lions management team on the idea of using Johnson all over the field. But I have a few problems:

1. Receivers taken in the top three picks usually don't help teams win.
2. Jon Kitna is the quarterback. He threw 21 touchdowns and 22 interceptions last year.
3. Martz' offenses in St. Louis featured great receivers, but they were dangerous because defenses couldn't totally focus on them. The Rams threw all sorts of weapons at defenses and they had a great line. Detroit doesn't have that talent around Johnson.
4. The Lions' biggest problem is clearly defense. They ranked 28th in the NFL last year and have no reason to believe they're going to get much better.
I think Millen was thinking short term with this pick. He needs to win fast and he'll have a chance with a relatively light schedule. But in the long run, I can't see Detroit reaching the playoffs any time soon.

How far will Quinn fall?

2007-04-28T13:03:00.001-04:00

Will Brady Quinn be this year's Aaron Rodgers?

I wouldn't be shocked if a team in the top eight picked Quinn and traded him. I think teams are wary of letting potential franchise quarterbacks fail and having to pay huge money at positions they don't necessarily want to invest in.

The teams in the middle part of the top 10 don't seem interested in the Notre Dame star. The Redskins want to move down and get multiple first-day picks for their No. 6 selection.

The Vikings make sense and they may very well take Quinn, since they need a QB. But we've heard a lot of buzz that they don't want to go in that direction. The Falcons, for better or worse, have Michael Vick. That leaves the Dolphins, who would likely jump on Quinn if he's there.

Quinn seems in good spirits. If I were him, I'd be thrilled that the Raiders, Lions and Browns didn't take me, because those teams aren't winning this year. He would be very popular in South Beach if he falls to No. 9.

Trade winds getting stronger

2007-04-28T12:09:00.000-04:00

The floor at Radio City Music Hall is buzzing with rumors of trade talk. It seems inevitable the Lions will pick Calvin Johnson at No. 2 and try do deal him. The question is, who will make the best offer?

The Redskins, Falcons, Bucs and Dolphins seem to be the teams in the best position to tempt Detroit. But consider the Niners, who own the No. 11 pick. The Lions love Patrick Willis and might be able to get the Ole Miss linebacker there.

Teams really don’t want to draft receivers at the top of the draft, but Johnson might be an exception. Johnson may be the only Hall of Famer in the top five of this draft. Can you really see JaMarcus Russell or Brady Quinn making a speech in Canton 18 years from now?

Let me know what you think will happen as the day unfolds.

Russell looks like the No. 1

2007-04-28T09:51:00.001-04:00

With the draft less than two hours away, the emerging consensus is that the Raiders will take JaMarcus Russell, the Lions will draft Calvin Johnson and the Browns are torn between Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson and Joe Thomas.

If Oakland had been able to move Randy Moss yesterday, then maybe Johnson would make more sense for the Raiders. But their efforts to get a high second-round pick for their disgruntled receiver reportedly fell short.

Detroit will likely listen to offers for Johnson, but the Lions have to consider themselves in a position of power, because if the right trade doesn’t come along, they’re stuck with the most talented player in the draft, who happens to fill a position of need.

The Browns must be having a stressful morning, because you hear different parties within the organization like different players. Coach Romeo Crennel needs to win this year to keep his job, which complicates their decision even more. My hunch is Quinn, because when in doubt, you have to go with the quarterback. Peterson has that looming collarbone issue and there are some who don’t even think Thomas is the best tackle in the draft.

I’ll be checking in all day from the draft in New York and thing should change rapidly. And this is your chance to share your draft thoughts with the world, so get in there and comment.

Ranking NFL-producing colleges for '07 draft

2007-04-18T15:59:00.000-04:00

LSU wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will likely be a first-round selection on April 28.

Bob Rosato/SI

Throughout most of the past decade, the University of Miami has produced the best NFL players, but the U has taken a step back since all the great Butch Davis recruits have moved on. Now the SEC has become the most important conference for pro scouts, and that conference dominates my rankings for the top 10 pro-producing colleges in this year's draft.

1. LSU -- Likely the only school with two top-10 picks -- QB JaMarcus Russell and S LaRon Landry -- and the Tigers' two top receivers, Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis, will be gone before the end of the second round.

2. Florida -- Two first rounders -- DE Jarvis Moss and S Reggie Nelson -- and two more first-day picks: WR Dallas Baker and DL Ray McDonald (assuming teams aren't scared by his knee problems).

3. Michigan -- Two defensive players could go in the top 12 picks, DT Alan Branch and CB Leon Hall, although I believe they’re both overrated. DE LaMarr Woodley should go in the second round.

4. Arkansas -- Two prospects will likely go in the first round, DE Jamaal Anderson and CB Chris Houston. Offensive tackle Tony Ugoh could go in the first round or in the first part of the second round.

5. Ohio State -- Receiver/returner Tedd Ginn Jr. could be selected in the top 15 picks and fellow WR Anthony Gonzalez could sneak into the first round. RB Antonio Pittman will likely go in the second round.

6. Miami -- TE Greg Olsen has shot up on draft charts and could go in the first half of the first round. LB John Beason will be a steal if he lasts into the second round, and safety Brandon Meriweather is a first-round talent who has fallen because of character questions.

7. USC -- The Trojans are having an off-year as far as top-10 picks, but three players could go in the first round or the early part of the second round -- WRs Dwayne Jarrett, WR Steve Smith and C Ryan Kalil.

8. Penn State -- Two potential first-rounders, OT Levi Brown and LB Paul Posluszny, and intriguing running back Tony Hunt, whose draft status has fluctuated throughout the offseason, but he could still be a first-day pick.

9. Texas -- Two DBs, Aaron Ross and Michael Griffin, should be first-rounders, while DEs Tim Crowder and Brian Robinson and OL Justin Blalock will likely be first-day picks.

10. Tennessee -- Two potential first-rounders - WR Robert Meachem and DT Justin Harrell -- and OL Arron Sears and DT Turk McBride could go in Round 2.

Five Potential Busts in the 2007 Draft

2007-04-16T15:04:00.000-04:00

Chris Houston shot up draft boards after an impressive performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Kevin Terrell/Wireimage

SI.com's Peter King says teams are very nervous about paying overrated first-round prospects this year. Here are five players I think have a high probability of being busts:

JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU (FILM ROOM): If Russell goes No. 1 overall to the Raiders, No. 2 to the Lions or No. 3 to the Browns, he'll be placed in a position to lose that might be hard to climb out of. And there are still lingering questions about his passion for the game.

Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas (FILM ROOM): Anderson appears to be on his way up on draft boards around the NFL, but he may be benefiting from the lack of can't-miss defensive prospects in the first round. Anderson had one good year at Arkansas and is still raw.

Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas (FILM ROOM): Houston has shot up draft boards since running a 4.32 40 at the combine, but there are several scouts who doubt his college production warrants a first-round selection.

Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FILM ROOM): Another possible workout wonder whose impressive physical skills didn't translate into consistent production at Miami. Olsen could go in the first half of the first round.

Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin (FILM ROOM): This isn't a judgment on Thomas per se, but teams have had trouble evaluating elite left tackles the last few years. Robert Gallery was the No. 2 overall pick in 2004 and no one could have imagined he wouldn't pan out. Meanwhile, Marcus McNeill, who looks like a perennial All-Pro, fell to No. 50 overall last year. I think there's a lot of intangibles at this position and even though I'm probably alone on this one, I don't buy Thomas' "can't-miss" label.

Let me know who you think will be a bust.

Will Ginn fall in draft?

2007-04-13T12:31:00.000-04:00

Ted Ginn Jr. may be falling down draft boards because of injury concerns..

Damian Strohmeyer/SI

Ted Ginn Jr.'s sub-par performance at a workout in Columbus on Wednesday may be a stroke of luck for some team in the middle to late part of the first round. The Ohio State receiver/returner is recovering from an ankle injury and ran 40s between 4.38 and 4.42 on a historically fast track at Ohio State. He was expected to run closer to a 4.2. Even worse, he couldn't perform the typical receiving drills.

I think Ginn might end up on everyone's draft bargain list in a couple of years -- unless, of course, the NFL ignores his workout and he still goes in the top 10.

Teams can't necessarily afford to pass on players because of concerns about lingering injuries. Guys are coming back from everything these days and recovering faster than ever. Just look at Frank Gore. He was so injured at the University of Miami, they almost declared him officially dead. A third-round pick in the 2005 draft by the 49ers, Gore ran for 1,695 yards last season. And obviously the 40 is limited as an indicator of success. The player Ginn has often been compared to, Devin Hester, ran a 4.51 at the combine, and then ran a 4.27 in a private workout. If you saw Hester at Miami, he was faster than everyone, so it shouldn't have made that big of a difference what he ran. The same can be said for Ginn.

Three head coaches were reportedly at Ginn's workout: the Dolphins' Cam Cameron (No. 9 pick), the Rams' Scott Linehan (No. 13) and the Bengals' Marvin Lewis (No. 18). I don't see the 'Fins taking him, but the Rams are a real possibility, even though there are reports Ginn could even fall to the later part of the first round.

If Ginn does fall past Cincy, he'll be a strong value pick, even if a team doesn't need a receiver. Drafting a receiver is tricky this year because there's a lot of depth at that position and teams likely think they can get a first-round caliber WR in the second or third rounds. Still, I think Ginn is worth the risk.

Let me know where you think Ginn will go and if he'll be a good pro.

Five Hardest Schedules

2007-04-11T16:00:00.000-04:00

Tom Brady's Patriots face the Colts on Nov. 4 in Indy.

Damian Strohmeyer/SI

Team-by-team 2007 schedules

Teams turn around quickly in today’s NFL, so it’s hard to predict how schedules will ultimately play out. But here are the five teams I think face the toughest roads in 2007:

1. New England: Except for home games against Cleveland and Washington, there are no out-of-division softies for the Pats. New England also faced a very tough schedule in 2005 and finished 10-6. With a restocked lineup, the Pats will probably wrap up the AFC East easily. But it will be a challenge to secure homefield advantage in the playoffs.

2. Buffalo: The Bills face a similar schedule to the Patriots and may get off to a rough start this year. They start at home against Denver, then go to Pittsburgh and New England.

3. Jacksonville: In the middle of the season, the Jags face a three-game road trip, which is sandwiched between home games against Indy and San Diego. Yikes.

4. Pittsburgh: The Steelers, who compete in what I feel will be the toughest division in '07, play three of their last four on the road, including trips to New England and Baltimore.

5. Indianapolis: The defending champs will have a target on their backs. They face every team they beat in the AFC playoffs last season (Kansas City, Baltimore and New England) as well as San Diego and New Orleans.

Let me know which teams you think have the hardest schedules.

This Year's Mario Williams?

2007-04-10T14:41:00.000-04:00

Gaines Adams, who was impressive at the combine, is moving up draft boards.

VIDEO: Gaines Adams

Gaines Adams is starting to remind me more of Mario Williams every day.

Like Williams, who went No. 1 overall to the Texans last year, Adams appears to be making a late run toward the top of the draft. The Clemson defensive end has shot up to No. 2 in some mock drafts. And like Williams, Adams has drawn attention because of his combine workout and because he was much better in the second half of his senior season.

At 258 pounds, Adams ran a 4.66 40, a 4.36 20-yard shuttle (that's a great time) and had a 35-inch vertical in Indy. He is the all-time sack leader at Clemson, so it's unfair to label him just a workout wonder. But eye-popping combine numbers seem to be a red flag for potential busts.

You would think if the Lions really wanted Adams, they'd try to trade down and take him at No. 4 or lower. But as Peter King pointed out on Monday, teams are afraid to move up this year.

I know Detroit has been burned by drafting skills' positions, but can you imagine if Calvin Johnson goes No. 1 to the Raiders, quarterback JaMarcus Russell is availabe and the Lions still go with Adams? If Detroit's Matt Millen is motivated by saving his job and thinks a veteran QB like Jon Kitna has a better chance of winning this season, then this franchise is in trouble.

If the Lions did go with Adams, then some weird things could happen at the top of the draft. Say Johnson goes first, then the Browns take Ohio native Brady Quinn. The Bucs at No. 4 can't take another quarterback and the Cardinals at No. 5 have Matt Leinart. Barring a trade, Russell could fall to 'Skins, who already have a young QB, at No. 6. A doubtful scenario, but we've seen top-rated QBs plummet in recent years.

A great pass-rusher is invaluable, but I'm not sure Adams is the right guy to lead the Lions back to respectability. Let me know what you think will happen at the No. 2 spot.

Raiders' Mysterious Ways

2007-04-06T11:28:00.000-04:00

JaMarcus Russell has impressed everyone this offseason, but the Raiders may not feel a quarterback can help them win quickly enough.

Bob Rosato/SI

VIDEO: Calvin Johnson | JaMarcus Russell | Brady Quinn

Now that David Carr signed with the Panthers, the list of potential Raiders quarterbacks for next season is even smaller. And SI.com's Michael Silver wrote yesterday that Oakland is strongly leaning toward taking Calvin Johnson with the No. 1 pick, because Al Davis thinks the gifted receiver gives the Raiders a better chance to win now.

Taking Johnson makes sense, but the second half of Silver's report was a head-scratcher. Apparently, Davis is content with Andrew Walter as his starter. The notion of sticking with Walter, who threw 13 picks compared to three touchdowns last year, is either dementia or a smokescreen. Reports also surfaced that the Raiders are trying to acquire QB Josh McCown from the Lions, which indicates even more strongly that they're thinking Johnson at the top of the draft.

If Johnson goes No.1, the next five picks become chaotic. Everyone seems to think the Lions will trade down, so that could mean teams trying hard to move up to take Russell. And then Brady Quinn to the Browns seems like a layup.

All of that makes sense, but over the last couple years quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Matt Leinart have taken nose-dives the week before the draft. It's possible that either Quinn or Russell lasts longer than expected. I don't think that will happen this year, however, especially after a number of teams were burned by passing on Leinart.

Then again, the Raiders are mysterious, so who knows how this will play out? If I had told you at this point last year that Mario Williams would go No. 1 , you would have laughed at me -- even more than usual.

If you think you have a better idea of what's going to happen at the top of the draft, let me know in our comments section.

Running back roulette

2007-03-08T15:02:00.000-05:00

Travis Henry rushed for 1,211 yards and seven touchdowns last season for Tennessee.

John Biever/SI

While the quarterback carousel traditionally gets more ink, the running back changes have been more significant this offseason. Several former 1,000-yard rushers have been traded or signed with new teams. Although they have more knee surgeries between them than Super Bowl rings, this group could make a major impact in 2007.

Here's my projection for each running back next season, assuming they stay healthy ... a huge if in this case:

Travis Henry, Broncos - Henry may be the next running back to explode in Denver. The Broncos still like second-year RB Mike Bell, but he should be more a short-yardage guy.
Predicted 2007 total: 1,400 yards

Thomas Jones, Jets - The Jets ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing attempts per game, even though they were averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. Jones should get 20 carries per contest.
Predicted 2007 total: 1,350 yards

Willis McGahee, Ravens - Ravens VP Ozzie Newsome said McGahee is a back who can make people miss. McGahee certainly didn't avoid many tackles last season, but maybe he'll improve with a better offensive line.
Predicted 2007 total: 1,200 yards

Ahman Green, Texans - Green, 30, joins a team with a notoriously bad offensive line, no passing to game to protect him and he faces a schedule loaded with the top rush defenses in the NFL.
Predicted 2007 total: 1,100.

Jamal Lewis, Browns - Lewis' success hinges on who the Browns draft. Obviously, QB Brady Quinn or OT Joe Thomas could help Lewis' numbers, while RB Adrian Peterson would not. The biggest problems for Lewis are the Browns' lack of a passing game and the fact he won't play Clevleand twice this season.
Predicted 2007 total: 1,000

Tatum Bell, Lions -- It's not clear if Kevin Jones will be able to return from his foot injury, so the former Broncos back has a chance to be the man in Detroit. Unfortunately, that's not saying much.
Predicted 2007 total: 900

Dominic Rhodes, Raiders -- It's hard to evaluate a running back from Indy. Defenses are so scared of the passing game, Colts backs typically run through holes they won't see on other teams. Rhodes will likely split carries with Lamont Jordan in Oakland.
Predicted 2007 total: 750

Still un-signed

Corey Dillon - Dillon was solid in his part-time role with the Pats, but he's fooling himself if he thinks he's still a primary back. The 32-year-old back looked like he was going to collapse of exhaustion every time he broke into the secondary last season.
Predicted 2007 total: 800

Chris Brown - Brown's name is synonymous with "upright running style." The 6-foot-3 running back is just too big a target and likely won't stay healthy as a No. 1 guy. He does, however, have value to a team that needs a dangerous second back.
Predicted 2007 total: 700

Disagree? Let me know in the Comments section.

Will Raiders trade Moss?

2007-03-07T15:37:00.000-05:00

Randy Moss had just 42 catches for 553 yards and three touchdowns last year.

John Iacono/SI

How many teams really want a 30-year-old malcontent wide receiver coming off his worst season? We're about to find out, as the Raiders field offers for Randy Moss. Let's handicap the odds for where Moss will end up:

New England: The Pats were apparently interested, but appear less likely to pursue Moss now that they traded for Wes Welker and reportedly made a hefty offer to free-agent Donte' Stallworth. If Stallworth turns them down, maybe Moss comes back into the picture. I'm not convinced New England needs Moss in the first place. The Pats' lack of big-time receivers hurt them last year, but they were not far off from winning the Super Bowl. A moderate improvement at that position is all they need.
Odds: 15/1

Green Bay: The Packers signed troubled Koren Robinson last year, so Moss won't scare them. Former disgruntled Raider Charles Woodson had eight interceptions for them last year, which might lead them to think they can resuscitate Moss' career.
Odds: 8/1

Tampa Bay: NFL.com reported that the Bucs contacted Oakland about Moss. This might imply Tampa Bay believes Georgia Tech wideout Calvin Johnson won't be available at No. 4 in April's draft. Tampa Bay desperately needs a vertical threat on offense, although I'm not sure Moss would be happy with Jeff Garcia at quarterback -- assuming he can beat out Chris Simms and maybe Jake Plummer.
Odds: 12/1

Jacksonville: Jacksonville was a rumored destination for Moss a couple of weeks ago, but not much seems to be developing. The Jags have invested in first-round picks WRs Reggie Williams and Matt Jones, but still lack a bona fide deep threat. The rumor may have started because the Jags hired Moss' former coach Mike Tice as an assistant.
Odds: 40/1

San Diego: San Diego's one weak spot on offense is receiver and it's interesting to imagine Moss facing single coverage as teams focus on LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates. Three reasons the Chargers haven't been mentioned much in the Moss chatter: 1) Moss has played poorly against San Diego over the last two seasons; 2) Raiders owner Al Davis wouldn't help a divisional rival; 3) Norv Turner is San Diego's new coach.
Odds: 75/1

Oakland: Davis has a history of asking for too much and the Raiders likely still want to try to get something out of the investment they've already made in Moss.
Odds: 2/1

Where do you think Randy Moss will play next season?

Questionable free-agent signings

2007-03-05T15:08:00.000-05:00

Leonard Davis signed a seven-year, $50 million deal with the Cowboys.

Rich Gabrielson/WireImage

Before you get too excited about the money flying around right now, look at how the Colts built their Super Bowl team. They drafted or signed as undrafted free agents 21 of 22 positional starters, and picked up the other one, Anthony McFarland, at last year's trade deadline.

They did sign kicker Adam Vinatieri last year, but you get my point. The financial structure of the NFL has made the pendulum swing toward drafting to build a champion instead of free agency. Good teams are vigilant about keeping their best players so they don't have to overpay in the open market. And if they draft well for their system, they can overcome free-agency losses.

With the bump in salary cap, this market was particularly overvalued and it's easy to spot the questionable deals, even though some of them look bigger on paper then they are in reality.

Here are my top five red-flag signings:

Leonard Davis, OT/OG, Cowboys: It seems weird the Cowboys would give him so much money – an $18 million signing bonus – and they're not even sure if he'll play guard or tackle.

Nate Clements, CB, 49ers: Clements' eight-year, $80 million deal is believed to be the richest for a defensive player in NFL history. Does that mean Clements is the best defensive player ever?

Derrick Dockery, G, Bills/Eric Steinbach, G, Browns: I'll be the first to admit I can not evaluate offensive guard play, but I do know the Vikings' acquisition of guard Steve Hutchinson for record money barely improved their rushing offense. I doubt Dockery and Steinbach will have a great impact either.

Ahman Green, RB, Texans: Green reportedly got more money from the Texans (four years, $23 million) then he was even looking for. Green was a great player at one point, but 30-year-old running backs with injury histories don't have a lot of value in today's NFL.

Dewayne White, DE, Lions: I'm willing to assume this a bad signing just because we're talking about the Lions. Anyone care to argue with that logic?

Let me know who you think was overpaid and who actually deserved a big payday.

Combine craziness

2007-02-22T12:11:00.001-05:00

Mario Williams wowed the scouting community with his outstanding performance at the 2005 combine.

You'd think in this day and age teams wouldn't take the NFL Scouting Combine and subsequent pro days too seriously. Everyone knows the players spend weeks preparing specifically for the physical and mental tests they'll face. And every year, a few smart teams strike gold by ignoring the kind of measurables that come out of the draft process and focusing instead on college production.

But even last year, the combine shaped the very top of the first round. The Texans were quite open about the fact that they drafted Mario Williams No. 1 overall because he was 6-foot-7, 295 pounds and ran a 4.70 40, and they said little about his play at North Carolina State. I know it's only been one year, but that pick already appears to be a mistake.

Houston passed on Reggie Bush, Vince Young and Matt Leinart, despite their outstanding college careers. The Texans claimed they thought they could win if they bolstered their defense immediately, plus they had faith in quarterback David Carr. Both those premises turned out to be ridiculous. Williams had 4.5 sacks and the Texans' D struggled. Carr threw 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions and came no closer to delivering on the promise he had as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2002 draft.

The Patriots have become the NFL's gold standard for drafting this decade and they rarely seem to pay attention to numbers coming out of the combine or pro days. One could argue their mini-dynasty started when Tom Brady didn't get enough zip on the ball at the 2000 combine, allowing him to drop to New England in the sixth round.

There are exceptions. Jevon Kearse's incredible combine workout justifiably moved him up in the 1999 draft. But for every Kearse, there are two Mike Mamula-like busts. Guaranteed, someone is going to make millions this week by running a fast 40 and a quarterback will bomb the Wonderlic and raise red flags. And come September, none of that will matter on the field.

Let me know how important you think the combine is and who you think this year's workout wonder will be.

Readers' choices for Chargers coach

2007-02-13T11:44:00.000-05:00

If the Chargers need help choosing their next coach, I hope they're reading Huddle Up today. The nominees are flowing in, ranging from the serious (Mike Martz, Pete Carroll), the longshots (Bill Cowher, Bill Parcells) and the ridiculous (Rich Kotite, Nick Saban, NBA coach Larry Brown).

In a most unscientific manner, I tallied the responses. Here are the 10 most popular choices and my quick take on their chances:

1. Mike Martz -- Martz may like an offense that is too wide open for San Diego, which has a much stronger defense than the Rams team Martz brought to the Super Bowl.
2. Jimmy Johnson -- Johnson makes sense in many ways ... if he wants the job.
3. Pete Carroll -- Seems like they're a lot of readers who think Carroll fits better in college than the NFL.
4. Bill Parcells -- Wow, can you imagine if the Chargers basically traded Wade Phillips for Parcells.
5. Bill Cowher -- No one buys that he won't coach in the right situation.
6. Jon Gruden -- His success getting the Bucs over the hump makes him a viable candidate. Now, for the matter of his existing job in Tampa Bay ...
7. Norm Chow -- Only downside is Chow has never been a head coach.
8. Dick Vermeil -- Who doesn't love Vermeil? May be too old, but would still be a popular choice.
9. Rex Ryan -- Lots of folks have chimed in with the Ravens defensive coordinator. Buddy's son will be a head coach some day, although his lack of experience could bother the Chargers.
10. Ron Rivera -- How is this guy not a head coach yet?

Now that you have had some time to mull it over, who is your final recommendation for the Chargers' next coach?