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Final Four Forecast

In a tournament as fickle as the weather, UConn is the pick

Compiled by Kelli Anderson, Laura Karmatz and Trisha Lucey

  Svetlana Abrosimova Can Svetlana Abrosimova help the Huskies give Auriemma his "miracle"? Chuck Soloman
Geno Auriemma has been to the Elite Eight six times, the Final Four three times and the winner's podium once, in 1995. He knows well the pitfalls that await every wannabe champion. "There is no way we could've predicted all that happened in '95," says the University of Connecticut coach. "Now I know that in any game, it could all unravel. If we win a championship at the end of this one, it'll be a miracle."

A miracle? If so, it'll be a miracle greatly facilitated by talent, depth, chemistry, work ethic, desire and leadership. But even with all that going for them, the Huskies will have to get a little lucky and stay injury-free to win it all this year.

They will also have to overcome the spoiler factor. Last year's Tennessee team was the most heavily favored in NCAA tournament history until it ran into upstart Duke in the East region final and lost 69-63. Somewhere, this year's Duke is lurking. Could it be Penn State, Notre Dame, Illinois or Rutgers? They have coaches (Rene Portland, Muffet McGraw, Theresa Grentz and Vivian Stringer) eager to take center stage at the First Union Center in Philadelphia, an area they all once called home.

In the end, a hometown connection won't give anyone an edge over Auriemma, who grew up in suburban Norristown and earned his coaching stripes at nearby St. Joseph's. This year his Huskies are the team to beat, and barring unforeseen disaster -- or a miracle occurring elsewhere -- nobody will.

Madness Q & A

No one knows more about what it takes to win the NCAA tournament than the players and coaches who participate. So we quizzed 12 of the game's biggest names about the ins and outs of the Big Dance

Where would you least like to play the opening rounds of the tournament?

  • DUKE GUARD GEORGIA SCHWEITZER: "I'd have to say Clemson. My first two years here, we've lost there. Last year that was our only loss in conference. They have a band that picks on the players. We never seem to play well there."

  • PENN STATE GUARD HELEN DARLING: "Louisiana Tech. We went there last year, and that's just a tough place to play. They have great crowd support. That's one place I definitely would not want to go in the opening rounds."

  • TENNESSEE FORWARD MICHELLE SNOW: "Louisiana Tech and Connecticut are probably the two hardest places to play in. At Tech the students are right on the floor. I think that's the worst place."

    If you were playing in a close tournament game, which opposing player would you least like to see with the ball in the final seconds?

  • UCLA GUARD ERICA GOMEZ: "I would probably say Tamika Catchings from Tennessee. She can go inside or out, shoot the three or post you up. So she's an offensive threat no matter where she is on the floor."

  • NOTRE DAME CENTER RUTH RILEY: "Jackie Stiles from Southwest Missouri State. I played with her on Team USA, and she just works so hard. She finds any way she can to score. She has that go-to attitude. She's hard to rattle, hard to get out of her game."

  • IOWA STATE GUARD STACY FRESE: "Edwina Brown from Texas. She's a very good offensive player and she can score easily. We haven't really matched up one-on-one, but I tried out for the World University Games this summer, and she was there. She works really hard, she's physical and athletic and really strong. She's their go-to player, and a tough player to go up against."

    Who's your favorite dark horse candidate to make the Final Four this year?

  • LOUISIANA TECH COACH LEON BARMORE: "Keep an eye on Oklahoma. They've got some good athletes, and they've been together a little bit. They may not beat Iowa State and win the league, but look out for them in the tournament."

  • NOTRE DAME COACH MUFFET MCGRAW: "I'd go with Boston College. They only lost at UConn by seven. They're smart, they don't beat themselves. They don't have a lot of depth, but they are fundamentally sound, smart and well coached, and they have great guard play."

  • LSU COACH SUE GUNTER: "Iowa State is a team that was on the brink last year and knocked off a very good Connecticut team and then brought almost everybody back. North Carolina is a possibility and so is UCLA. Both started off ranked high, then dropped for different reasons, and now they're starting to climb their way back up."

     
    SI FOR WOMEN'S 1999-2000 ALL-AMERICA TEAM
    Pos. Player Class School
    FIRST TEAM
    G Kelly Miller Jr. Georgia
    G Helen Darling Sr. Penn State
    F Shea Ralph Jr. Connecticut
    F Tamika Catchings Jr. Tennessee
    C Ruth Riley Jr. Notre Dame
    SECOND TEAM
    G Edwina Brown Sr. Texas
    G Semeka Randall Jr. Tennessee
    F Svetlana Abrosimova Jr. Connecticut
    F Maylana Martin Sr. UCLA
    C Summer Erb Sr. North Carolina State
    Player of the Year: Shea Ralph, Connecticut
    Freshman of the Year: LaToya Thomas, Mississippi State
    Coach of the Year: Kay Yow, North Carolina State
    What's the most underappreciated key to winning it all?

  • IOWA STATE COACH BILL FENNELLY: "The draw. It's all about matchups. The teams that make the Final Four are good and they're lucky. Some teams match up better with others. Seeding is overrated, but I think the draw becomes a huge issue."

  • CONNECTICUT COACH GENO AURIEMMA: "Really, really, really good guards who are tough and smart; and really, really, really good officiating. Guards have to handle the ball, make open shots, get the ball to the right people and play great defense."

  • DUKE COACH GAIL GOESTENKORS: "It's nothing physical, it's emotional. When you get to that point, it's not about boxing out. You've gone over all those little things a million times. You have to somehow help your team feel that they're comfortable, that they belong, that they don't have to do anything special. You don't have to play better, you have to play as good as you are, because that's what got you there." u

    Our virtual No. 1: Duke

    Can't wait to find out who will be this season's national champ? Neither could we. So we held our own NCAA tournament. We formed an Elite Eight from among the highest-ranked teams available on the EA Sports March Madness 2000 video game, divided them into four regionals and then conducted our cyber tournament. If the real thing is anything like our virtual competition, get ready for a wild ride: Powerhouses UConn (which lost to Duke), Tennessee (beaten by Illinois) and Louisiana Tech (toppled by Texas Tech) all failed to reach our Final Four.

    The championship game pitted Duke (which routed Texas Tech in a semifinal) against Georgia (which downed North Carolina State and Illinois) in a rematch of a 1999 national semifinal. Led by junior guard Georgia Schweitzer, the Blue Devils emerged victorious, 81-70. Schweitzer was stellar with 13 points, nine rebounds, six assists and four steals, and the Duke defense held Georgia's star guards, Kelly and Coco Miller, to 23 points -- about eight off their combined average this season. The Lady Bulldogs also couldn't get a break from the officials: They didn't shoot a single free throw, and Duke went to the line 18 times.

    If nothing else, this exercise proves that anything can happen in March. Why do you think they call it Madness?

    Hooping it up on the web

    Here are some cool URLs for following the tournament:

    www.cnnsi.com
    CNN/SPORTS ILLUSTRATED's site includes printable brackets, team pages, analysis by SI FOR WOMEN's Kelli Anderson and Trisha Lucey, and coaches' diaries.

    www.finalfour.net
    The NCAA's official site provides news, stats and rosters as well as ticket and venue information.

    sports.philly.com/special/WF4
    This site is chock-full of hoops history, including a searchable database of every weekly AP Top 25 poll since the 1976-77 season.


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