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Who got in? World Cup goal difference rule causes confusion
LONDON (Reuters) -- Soccer fans around the continent could be forgiven for being a little confused ahead of this weekend's final found of European World Cup qualifiers where simple goal difference will be used to split teams level on points. It seems the straightforward answer to a common problem and has been the method preferred by FIFA for all recent World Cups. But such has been the tinkering with qualification formats in different competitions around the globe in recent seasons that it almost seems too good to be true and has led to widespread confusion as the possible permutations for the decisive weekend are calculated. In World Cup qualifying, teams level on points are divided first by simple goal difference -- the number of goals scored minus the number conceded in all their group matches. If the goal difference is identical, then comes goals scored and only then the head-to head record of teams involved. If none of those can split the teams then they playoff in a one-off game at a neutral venue. Two years ago in qualifying for the 2000 European Championship, it was head-to-head records that made the difference. So when Denmark and Switzerland both finished with 14 points the Swiss missed out on a play-off place despite a superior goal difference because they had drawn with and lost to the Danes. That tournament had the added complication of one of the nine runners-up qualifying automatically and the other eight going into playoffs. The ranking order for the nine was decided by the various runners-up's records against the teams finishing first, third and fourth in their group. This was an attempt to prevent big victories over the minnow nations recently introduced into the qualifying system having a disproportional impact on the standings. It appeared to be fair and worked reasonably well but made things very difficult for the average fan - and a fair few national coaches - trying to work out what was needed for their team to make it. The Champions League has gone down the head-to-head route but has thrown in a couple of extra variants just to add confusion. When teams can't be split by head-to-head results or head-to-head goal difference the next factor is goals scored in away games between the two. Only then does it revert to goal difference in the whole group, followed by goals scored. If none of the above do the job it's time for the good old "coefficient," an impossibly complicated ranking system based on points accumulated by the team - and other teams from the same country - over the previous five years. Europe's domestic leagues also take a widely different approach to the issue, with some going for goal difference, some head-to-head, some deciding it on the number of wins and others giving the advantage to teams with a game in hand. Throw in other recent experiments such as that in English soccer's lower divisions where, in an attempt to encourage attacking play, goals scored were counted but those conceded ignored, and a complicated picture emerges. The only answer for fans with a fear of calculators would appear to make sure their team does what the Czech Republic did in Euro 2000 qualifying -- win all their games and have absolutely no worries about taking their place in the finals.
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