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Stage set for World Cup draw Posted: Wednesday November 28, 2001 5:37 PMUpdated: Wednesday November 28, 2001 5:53 PM
About all the United States soccer team learned for certain about the World Cup on Wednesday is that it will not be playing a team from Africa or CONCACAF in the opening round of next year's tournament. By Paul Kennedy, Soccer America PUSAN, South Korea -- FIFA has determined the order of the draw for the 2002 World Cup, which will take place Saturday, Dec. 1, in Pusan, South Korea, in ceremonies to begin at 5 a.m. ET. In seeding based on the performance of the teams in the last three World Cups and on the FIFA rankings for 1999-2001, Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Germany and Spain joined defending champion France and co-hosts South Korea and Japan as the eight seeded teams. Here are the four bowls into which the 32 finalists will be divided to determine the eight groups of four and explanations of why teams may be moved between groups after they are picked (live radio coverage on Futbol de Primera Spanish-language network; live online at www.ussoccer.com and on television with taped coverage on Univision -- East feed: 11 a.m. ET; Central feed 10 a.m. CT; Mountain Feed: 10 a.m. MT; West Feed: 9 a.m. PT): Bowl 1: The eight seeds -- France (Group A), South Korea (Group D), Japan (Group H), Brazil, Argentina, Italy, Germany and Spain.
Based on the principle of balancing the four groups in South Korea (A, B, C and D) and the four in Japan (E, F, G and H), teams from the same confederation in the same bowl can't all play in the same country. Therefore, if Brazil or Argentina lands in South Korea, the other team will go to Japan. If the first three teams picked are the three European teams -- Italy, Germany and Spain -- the third is moved from South Korea to Japan. Bowl 2: The other 11 European teams -- England, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Belgium, Ireland, Russia, Turkey, Slovenia and Poland. After the first eight teams are picked, the other three move into Bowl 3. Bowl 3: The three remaining European teams, the three South American teams (Paraguay, Uruguay and Ecuador) and the two Asian teams (China and Saudi Arabia). Based on the principle of limiting the number of European teams in any group to two, the three remaining European teams have to go to a group headed by South Korea, Japan, Brazil or Argentina. Based on the principle of otherwise avoiding two teams from the same confederation in the same group, China and Saudi Arabia can't be placed in the same group as South Korea or Japan and the three South American teams can't be placed in the same group with Brazil or Argentina. For what was termed "geographical and economic" considerations -- i.e. the need to sell tickets in South Korea, where demand for tickets lags behind demand in Japan -- China will play in South Korea in Group A, B or C. Again, based on the principle of balancing the four groups in South Korea and the four in Japan, the three South American teams can't all play in South Korea or Japan, and Saudi Arabia has to play in Japan. Bowl 4: The three CONCACAF teams (U.S., Costa Rica and Mexico) and the five African teams (Cameroon, South Africa, Tunisia, Senegal and Nigeria). Again, based on the principle of balancing the four groups in South Korea and the four in Japan, the three CONCACAF teams can't all play in South Korea or Japan. What does this mean for the United States? 1. It won't face its CONCACAF rivals or the five African teams in the first round. 2. It will, in all likelihood -- 7/8 chance -- face two European teams in the first round. 3. It has a 7/32 chance (roughly 22 percent) of facing Brazil or Argentina and two European teams in the first round. 4. Based on FIFA's ranking of the teams for the purpose of the draw, here are the best- and worst-case scenarios for the United States: Best-case draw: U.S. (ranking 13), South Korea (25th), Poland (28th) and Ecuador (30th). Worst-case draw: U.S. (ranked 13th), Brazil (ranked 1st), England (ranked 8th) and Croatia (ranked 9th). Because FIFA didn't rank the 11 "unseeded" European teams between the second and third bowls, the key will be which European team(s) the United States faces. The odds are it will face two, but it must avoid facing two that are ranked above it: (1) Italy, Germany, France or Spain from Bowl 1 and (2) England, Croatia, Denmark or Sweden from Bowl 2. Paul Kennedy is managing editor at Soccer America magazine.
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