Lighten up

World Cup predictions overstuff the mailbag

CNNSI.com's World Cup analyst Gabriele Marcotti will be covering every kick of the tournament, with a "91st Minute" column filed each matchday. Click here to submit a comment or question to Marcotti's mailbag.

Well, it's amazing what a few predictions can do to somebody's mailbag. I got hundreds of responses, some of them in agreement, most questioning my sanity.

What generated the most controversy was picking Brazil and Italy to go to the final, as well as suggesting the United States might make it to the next round.

First, let me say that predictions are not an exact science. If you look at a player-for-player assessment of which squads are strongest, you'd probably pick Argentina and France (though, because they're in the same half of the squad, they can't meet in the final). You have to make room for surprises, because the World Cup always generates surprises.

Mine are educated guesses. That's it. I do not have a crystal ball, nor do I claim to be absolutely right. To David, in Melbourne, Australia, who says "Why are you so sure Italy will win the World Cup?," and to others, I can only say -- I'm not sure.

It's conjecture, based on what I've seen, what I've read and what others have told me. Soccer balls are round, not square, which means anything can happen. Take predictions for what they are: a bit of fun. If it was an exact science, who would want to stay up to watch the World Cup?

Breaking down the Cup Korea-Japan will showcase the very best that the game has to offer, barring those who are absent through injury (Robert Pires, Gianluca Pessotto, Mehmet Scholl, Kieron Dyer), neglect (Romario, Roberto Baggio) and incompetence in qualifying (Holland, Czech Republic, Australia). The bookmakers see Argentina and France as joint favorites, followed by Italy, with Germany, Brazil and England just behind. It's going to be tight and here's how things might unfold. --CNNSI.com's Gabriele Marcotti

To Marcin Niewiara (St. Louis, Missouri), Mohamed Fall (New York, New York) and the others who suggested I picked Italy because I happen to be Italian, please give me a little bit of credit. That's just silly.

I picked Italy because of the quality of its defense (arguably the best in the world), attack (Christian Vieri did score five goals last time around) and mentality in big tournaments. If you exclude penalties, when facing elimination Italy has lost just once in World Cup play in the last 24 years (to France in 1986). Throw in a favorable (on paper, at least) half of the draw, a fine performance at Euro 2000 (and that was without Vieri), and I thought it was reasonable they might go far.

I might add that both the most successful manager of all time (Sir Alex Ferguson) and one of the greatest players of all time (Diego Maradona) have also picked Italy, so I think I'm in good company, no?

Brazil is a huge sticking point. Yes, confidence is low; yes, Felipe Scolari's men were very disappointing in qualifying. Call me a romantic if you like, but Ronaldo is back, as he proved in the last few months of the season with Inter Milan. At the very least, Scolari has provided defensive stability, which is key in World Cups. And that's without getting into Rivaldo, Ronaldinho, Cafu, Roberto Carlos, etc.

Once you get to the quarterfinals, it's about individuals. And Brazil has plenty in that department, so, to my friend Jorge (New York, New York), who has promised to buy me dinner if I get my predictions right, I have just two words: you're on. Without the weight of expectations, Brazil may just do it.

As for the United States, Tony Hartmann in Clearwater, Florida, and others disagree strongly with my suggestion. Tony's argument is based on the fact that the U.S. draws most of its team from MLS, which is inferior to top leagues in Europe, that the U.S. qualified from CONCACAF, a weak confederation, and that they have a tough group draw.

Fair points. Except South Korea draws most of its players from an inferior league as well (the K-League). Poland enjoyed a very favorable qualifying group. As for Portugal, two of its biggest stars (Luis Figo and Manuel Rui Costa) are coming off lackluster, injury-riddled seasons, not to mention that it lost at home to Finland (4-1) last month. So yes, I do think the United States has a chance, albeit an outside chance.

Picking Germany to go the semifinals was also controversial. I have to say that when I made my prediction, Sebastian Deisler was not yet injured. I don't think Germany is that impressive (which is why I think Cameroon will win the group), and, to be honest, its matches with Spain and Portugal could go either way. But heck, you've got to choose.

Frankly, I thought Portugal was a lot stronger two years ago, and Spain's central defense of Fernando Hierro and Miguel Angel Nadal is a serious liability in my opinion (as is the unavailability of Santiago Canizares).

Finally, a word on England. I, for one, don't believe the hype. Losing Steven Gerrard is a huge blow. Kieron Dyer is untested on the left. Emile Heskey leaves me unconvinced. And I'm not a Sol Campbell fan. Throw in the fact that this is a very young team and that any one of the teams in Group F (yes, even Sweden) is capable of getting to the quarterfinals and, frankly, it's not unreasonable to suggest that Sven-Goran Eriksson's first World Cup experience will be a short one.

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