Ireland must beat Saudis by two

Updated: Saturday June 08, 2002 11:47 p.m. ET

CHIBA, Japan (AP) -- Entering the World Cup, few people gave Ireland much chance of advancing from its group -- particularly after the dismissal of its star, Roy Keane.

But after 1-1 draws against both Cameroon and Germany, the surprising Irish head into their final Group E match against Saudi Arabia on Tuesday needing to win by two goals to snag a place in the second round.

Meanwhile, the Saudis, who have already been eliminated, are playing for nothing less than restoring a measure of dignity after two straight losses, including an 8-0 drubbing by Germany.

Ireland coach Mick McCarthy cautioned that the Saudis are no pushovers. He witnessed their 1-0 loss to Cameroon on Wednesday, and came away thinking the Africans were lucky to have won.

"I thought they (the Saudis) possibly had the better chances in the game," he said Saturday. "For us to underestimate Saudi Arabia would be folly indeed. They're not a bad side."

Indeed, the Saudis looked like a completely different team against Cameroon to the side that lost to Germany. They hustled, fought for every ball and created good scoring opportunities but just could not convert.

Saudi midfielder Hussein Sulimani said that, despite losing, their performance "proved we are men."

Going into Tuesday's match, Saudi Arabia could play the spoiler, as an Irish loss or draw would kick them out of the tournament.

For Ireland, which has two points, the objective is clear: win by two goals to advance.

That would give them five points and at least the group's second best record, sending them through to a June 16 match in Suwon, South Korea, against the winner of Group B, most likely Spain.

"Certainly, we're in a good position," midfielder Matt Holland said Friday. "We know if we win 2-0 we're through. If we play as well as we did in the first two games, we're going to win."

Cameroon and Germany, who also clash Tuesday, each have four points. The winner would advance. And, if Ireland wins its match, the loser would go home.

If Cameroon and Germany draw and Ireland wins, giving the top three teams five points each, the two teams with the higher goal difference would advance.

Germany has a huge advantage there, having scored nine goals and given up only one. Cameroon has a goal difference of one, while the Irish have zero in this category. So Ireland needs to secure at least a two-goal margin of victory to progress.

Other than that, there is one potentially hazardous outcome for the Irish: If Cameroon draws 1-1 with Germany and Ireland beats Saudi Arabia 1-0, Germany would top the group on goal difference.

But Cameroon and Ireland would be equal on goal difference, total goals scored and all other tie-breaking criteria -- so FIFA would have to cast lots to see who advances.

Come Tuesday, Ireland finds itself as favorite for the first time in the tournament -- not a position that the Irish particularly like.

"We like upsetting people. It's easier to go into the competition as an underdog," said McCarthy. "We need to qualify, and that's added pressure. But we've delivered before, and if we perform like we have, I don't see why we can't do it again.

"But it isn't going to be easy. It'll be a tough game."

McCarthy said the Saudis were just as big and physical as the Germans and Cameroonians, and that in Wednesday's match "they defended crosses, corners and free kicks exceptionally well."

So far in the World Cup, the Irish have overcome several difficulties themselves. They've proved they can play solid soccer without Keane, who was sent home after a dispute with McCarthy.

They've also had to come from behind to salvage draws after poor starts in both of their games. Against Germany, that didn't happen until the 92nd minute, thanks tvored foes only to stumble against a weaker team.

In its 1990 debut, Ireland tied England 1-1 but then played a scoreless draw against Egypt. Four years later, Ireland shocked Italy 1-0 in its opener only to fall to Mexico 2-1.

McCarthy said that the two starters who didn't train Saturday because of injuries, Holland (rib) and goalkeeper Shay Given (hip), should be fit for the match against Saudi Arabia.

The game kicks off at 8:30 p.m. (1130 GMT) Tuesday in Yokohama, while Germany and Cameroon face off at the same time in Shizuoka, near Mt. Fuji.

Asked whether he favors Germany or Cameroon, McCarthy said the Cameroonians are trickier and the Germans stronger.

"If I was going to put money on it, I'd back Germany," he said. (mjf-nk)