Chaos theory

World Cup upsets defy experts' predictions

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By Simon Hooper, CNNSI.com

Soccer experts everywhere are shaking their heads in disbelief, tearing up their predictions and slumping into existential crises.

Theoretical physicists could use the first two weeks of the World Cup as a case study in chaos theory, which makes room for inexplicable, unpredictable and irrational events amid the icy certainties of science.

Nobody of rational mind could possibly have predicted that France and Argentina, the overwhelming pre-tournament favorites, would crash out in the first round. So why bother with professional pundits when any monkey with a keyboard could have done better?

Actually, this column isn't doing too badly so far. Having boldly told you two weeks ago to "forget France and Argentina," (though possibly not quite this early in the competition) the Week at a Glance-endorsed Italians did just enough against Mexico, with a little bit of help from Ecuador, to reach the knockout stages.

Of course, that prediction was based on the premise of Italian impregnability, something that Croatia and Mexico have shown to be about as flawed as Saudi Arabian defending.

But Italy is a notoriously slow starter and long-suffering Azzurri fans will know better than to write off their team just yet.

In 1982, the last time Italy won the World Cup, it only qualified for the second round by virtue of scoring one more goal than Cameroon, having failed to win a game.

And so far Italy has been dreadfully unlucky. Four disallowed goals -- two against Croatia, two against Mexico -- suggests a conspiracy among linesmen determined to reap revenge on the nation that perfected the offside trap.

Had it not been for those decisions, Italy may well have sailed into the last 16 with maximum points.

Looking elsewhere, Brazil stands out as a clear contender after its five-goal performance against Costa Rica.

Ronaldo looks sharp and coach Luiz Felipe Scolari, a man so pragmatic in his approach he famously once urged his players publicly to commit more fouls, seems to have undergone some sort of late conversion to the beautiful game of Brazilian folklore.

Either that or he has decided that Brazil is so vulnerable at the back that attack really is the best form of defense.

The doubt hanging over the Selecao is that they've had it too easy so far. Turkey almost embarrassed them, China was too weak to count and Costa Rica seemed happy to play its part in an exhibition match in the hope that it could score enough goals to defend its goal difference edge over Turkey.

Assuming Brazil survives its second round clash with the yet-to-be-decided winner of Group H, it faces a tough quarterfinal against either England, conqueror of Argentina, or Denmark, a rematch of their 1998 quarterfinal.

Both have shown their defensive qualities against more skilful teams by beating Argentina and France respectively, and either Michael Owen or Jon Dahl Tomasson could worry Brazil's defenders. As in 1982, a Brazilian challenge built on attacking flair could falter against rigid defending.

Germany has had a good tournament so far, with Miroslav Klose leading the scoring charts with five headers. But its second round match with Paraguay perhaps offers the greatest chance of an upset in the second round.

The Germans weren't convincing against Ireland and the suspensions picked up in the card frenzy against Cameroon (Carsten Ramelow, Christian Ziege and Dietmar Hamann) are going to hurt Rudi Voeller's side.

And with Jose Luis Chilavert determined to score against Oliver Kahn -- perhaps the only goalkeeper who can rival him for arrogance -- and Roque Santa Cruz lining up against many of his Bayern Munich teammates, Paraguay should be super-motivated.

That leaves Spain as arguably the last of the major contenders. The perennial underachiever has, for once, sailed through the first round, with three wins. But history tells us Spain always messes up.

A win over Ireland would now set up a rematch of its last quarterfinal in 1994 against Italy, when Luis Enrique had his nose broken in the dying seconds of his side's controversial defeat.

And for now, the Week at a Glance is sticking with the Italians to win again.

First round coaching casualties mount As the first round losers depart, so too do many of their coaches. Bora Milutinovic quit as Chinese coach after his side's 3-0 defeat by Turkey, having failed in his bid to take a fifth nation into the second round without even winning a point or scoring a goal. Uruguay's heroic fightback against Senegal wasn't enough for Victor Pua, who resigned immediately, although he could soon be back in international management with Peru. Costa Rica coach Alexandre Guimaraes says he'll "wait and see what happens" after coming to the end of his contract following his side's brave performance in losing 5-2 to Brazil. Meanwhile French coach Roger Lemerre is expected to be put out of his misery Friday and Argentine coach Marcelo Bielsa has his work cut out to earn a new contract before his present one expires on June 30.

Swedish captain Andersson ruled out Sweden will be without captain Patrik Andersson for the rest of its World Cup campaign. The Barcelona defender has played no part in the competition so far after injuring his groin in training before the Swedes' opener against England and will return to Spain for treatment. Andreas Jakobsson of Hansa Rostock is likely to continue to deputize in defense, having stood in for Andersson in all three group games. The Group F winner faces Senegal in the second round.

Brum deal for Birmingham Newly promoted Birmingham City was handed a nightmare return to the top flight when the English fixtures were unveiled Thursday. The Blues, back among the elite for the first time in 16 years, faces Arsenal, Manchester United and Leeds in their first three games. Manchester United kicks off against another newly promoted West Midlands side, West Bromwich Albion, while Manchester City, the third newcomer, faces Leeds. Liverpool, runner-up last season, faces Aston Villa on the opening day.

Rio Ferdinand The young Leeds defender has been justifiably compared with Bobby Moore for his performances against Argentina and Nigeria and seems to have finally matured into the great player England fans had hoped. Manchester United and Inter Milan are reportedly among his admirers. Francecso Totti Italy's playmaker has looked out of sorts in all three games so far. Against Mexico he missed an easy chance to open the scoring and consistently failed to deliver from set-pieces. Alessandro Del Piero's vital goal, after replacing Totti, could mean the Roma man is confined to the bench in future.

Riquelme set for Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid looks set to be the club to finally bring Boca Juniors' Argentine midfielder Juan Roman Riquelme to Europe, according to Marca. Jesus Gil, the president of the newly promoted Spanish side, told the paper: "It all now depends on Boca Juniors. We have done everything we have to do." Gil is reportedly ready to pay US$9.41 million for the 23-year-old, formerly linked with Barcelona. "If it was down to me he could come right now," said Gil.

Toon launch bold bid for Rivaldo Newcastle has launched an audacious effort to try and tempt Brazilian superstar Rivaldo away from Barcelona, the Sun says. Barca is reportedly willing to talk to the English club, managed by former Barca coach Bobby Robson, which is willing to pay US$14 million. "Rivaldo is one of more than 40 players we have been linked with, so I suppose there is a 40-1 chance we could be signing him," Robson told the Newcastle Journal. Rivaldo could be keen to move as he is guaranteed 20 percent of any transfer fee and may not be keen renew acquaintances with Louis Van Gaal, about to begin his second spell as Barca coach. But the Sun says the Brazilian has also been linked to a swap deal for Lazio's unsettled Spaniard Gaizeka Mendieta.

Tigana or Deschamps? With Roger Lemerre's contract as French coach likely to be torn up Friday, speculation has turned to his likely successor. Le Parisien claims the frontrunners are Fulham coach Jean Tigana, a European Championship winner in 1994, and France's 1998 World Cup-winning captain Didier Deschamps, who has launched his coaching career at Monaco. Tigana appears the favorite as he has the backing of Michel Platini and World Cup-winning coach Aime Jacquet, while Deschamps has been criticized for his side's poor performance last season.

"You want to try sitting in that dug-out when your backside's on the bacon slicer." -- Mick McCarthy offers an intriguing insight into life as Ireland's World Cup coach.

"I was stunned by the way Cameroon played. It frightened me. I have never seen such a lazy group of players compete in a World Cup." -- German legend Franz Beckenbauer pulls no punches after watching his country eliminate the African and Olympic champion.