The Can't Miss Kid

Expos' Guerrero showing rare mix of power, contact

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Posted: Wednesday April 26, 2000 01:11 PM

Vladimir Guerrero has struck out only once in 50 at-bats against right-handed pitching this season. Matthew Stockman /Allsport

By Ryan Hunt, CNNSI.com

Montreal right fielder Vladimir Guerrero is 24. That's his age, not his projected strikeout total.

Close enough.

Granted, it's only April, but Guerrero has a chance to do something only five players in major league history have accomplished -- hit 40 or more home runs and have fewer strikeouts than homers.

And the feat, which has happened only nine times, hasn't occurred since 1955, when Cincinnati's Ted Kluszewski finished with 47 homers and 40 K's.

When you look at 30-homer seasons with fewer strikeouts, the number only jumps to 25 times by 13 players -- the last in 1956, when Kluszewski (35/31) and Yogi Berra (30/29) both accomplished the feat.

Power Supply More homers than strikeouts; 40 HR min. Player  Tm  Yr  HR  K  Johnny Mize  STL  1947  51  42  Ted Kluszewski  CIN  1954  49  35  Lou Gehrig  NYY  1934  49  31  Lou Gehrig  NYY  1936  49  46  Ted Kluszewski  CIN  1955  47  40  Joe DiMaggio  NYY  1937  46  36  Mel Ott  NYG  1929  42  38  Ted Kluszewski  CIN  1953  47  40  Johnny Mize  NYG  1948  40  37

George Brett was the last player to have more home runs than strikeouts, finishing with 24 homers and 22 strikeouts in his magical .390 season of 1980. San Diego's Tony Gwynn is the only other player to have challenged it recently, but with considerably less power, hitting 16 homers and striking out 18 times in '97.

But where Guerrero, who has seven homers and only three strikeouts this season, differs from many of the listed players is that he's right-handed.

Joe DiMaggio (1937) is the only right-handed major leaguer to hit 40 or more homers and have fewer strikeouts. And just four righties have done it with 30 or more homers -- DiMaggio, Rogers Hornsby, Andy Pafko and Al Simmons.

Guerrero is also predominantly a power hitter, yet he's become among the most selective players in baseball. He cut his strikeouts down from 95 in 1998, his first full year in the majors, to 62 in '99. He is on pace to strike out only 27 times this season.

Considering he's also on pace to hit 63 homers (again, it's only April), Guerrero could also make a run at the record for homer-to-strikeout differential in a season -- which is 19, held by Tommy Holmes of the 1945 Boston Braves.

Keep In Contact Biggest single-season HR-to-K difference Player, Team  Yr  HR  K  Diff  Tommy Holmes, Braves  1945  28  9  +19  Lou Gehrig, Yankees  1934  49  31  +18  Joe DiMaggio, Yankees  1941  30  13  +17  Yogi Berra, Yankees  1950  28  12  +16  Ted Kluszewski, Reds  1954  49  35  +14  Minimum 20 HRs

Holmes struck out only nine times in 636 at-bats that season to go with his 28 home runs.

So just how hard of a feat is having more homers than strikeouts? Only three weeks into the season, there are only two major leaguers with at least 30 at-bats who can boast having more homers than whiffs -- Guerrero and St. Louis' Placido Polanco (three HRs and two K's).

Guerrero recently had a streak of 82 consecutive plate appearances without a strikeout. Through April 24, Guerrero is fifth in the National League in plate appearances per strikeout (three K's in 75 PAs).

By comparison, Marlins outfielder Preston Wilson struck out 30 times -- with only one homer -- in his first 75 at-bats this season. At his current clip, amazingly, it will take Guerrero 660 at-bats to reach 30 strikeouts.

 

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