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All assists are not the same
By Marc Foster and Chris Apple, special to CNNSI.com In a previous column, "All goals are not the same...”, we took a look at the value of weighting goals to measure the effectiveness of the scoring of a player. This same principle can be applied to the assists that result in these goals to look at the overall efficiency of the people creating the plays. Once again here’s how we create this weighted value, one point is assigned to any goal that results in a tie or leads to a one-goal lead. A goal that adds to a one-goal lead or reduces a two-goal lead to one, is valued at 0.75 weighted points. For any goal that cuts a three-goal lead or adds to a two-goal lead, 0.50 weighted points, and 0.25 points are assessed for adding to a 3-4 goal lead or reducing a 4-5 goal lead. Finally, just 0.10 weighted points are assigned for any goal that adds to more than a five-goal lead or reduces more than a six point lead. If a player scores into an empty net, this results in reducing the weighted value by one category. For example, if Mario Lemieux scores to give a two-goal lead to the Penguins, he would receive 0.75 weighted points, however if that same goal was an empty-netter it would only be worth 0.50. The weighted percentage is then determined by weighted goals/assists divided by the actual amount. Let’s take a look, thus far at the assist leaderboard:
As you can see, weighting assists once again in our leaders does not radically shift the balance of power until you start weighing comparing percentages. Here’s that same table, ordered by percentages:
In our experience as amateur players (if senior league hockey counts for much), we’ve learned as any player has that a team is not one player scoring goals, but an offensive unit skating in making passes and creating opportunities. The value of an assist thus far has been intangible, though rewarded with a point; we’re simply trying to place further value in the play-making abilities of players. Let’s take a look at Sergei Samsonov of the Bruins. His weighted assist percentage is a solid 98 percent, when you couple of that with the fact that he has 11 assists thus far, his play making has been invaluable to the efficiency of the scoring in Boston. It is true, though that the season is young and his percentage could drop, but thus far his performance has been quite solid. In even-strength situations is percentage ranks at 4 assists out of 4 for a even 100 percent, only on the power play does his play-making efficiency drop with 6.75 (out of 7 assists) weighted point for a solid 96.4 percent efficiency. We could compare that to Calgary’s Jarome Iginla, who’s recently made headlines for being left off the NHL’s All-Star ballot. Overall, Iginla ranks in the top 10 for (non-weighted) assists, but when you look into his assists we see that six of 14 assists have led to either multiple-goal leads or goals that reduced a multiple-goal deficit. Even strength he is a 7 of 9 for 77.8 percent, while on the power play he is 3.75 of 5 for 75%. It should be noted though that lately his even-strength play making efficiency has been improving, since October 25th he has been 3.5 of 4 for a solid 87.5 percent, while before that same date he was 3.5 of 5 for 70 percent. In the past weeks we’ve been introducing some new measurements in stats analysis, and now that the season is well underway we thought we’d update some numbers. The first is weighted goals. This is no different conceptually than weighted assists.
Second, we have some updated scoring efficiency numbers. Instead of looking at G/GP or Pts/GP, we can break down games by minutes played, giving us min/goal or min/point. We can divide this further into even strength, shorthanded, and power play minutes and scoring.
Marc Foster is a research analyst in Fort Worth, Texas. Chris Apple is a database analyst/Internet specialist in Lincoln, Neb. Together, they operate HockeyResearch.com, and hope to one day elevate statistical research in hockey to the level seen in other sports.
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