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Turning back the clock
Pitching stands to improve with contraction
Posted: Wednesday November 07, 2001 2:15 AM
Updated: Wednesday November 07, 2001 3:00 AM
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Javier Vazquez, who won 16 games with a 3.42 ERA this season, could be headed toward a team near you. Al Bello/Allsport |
By Jacob Luft, CNNSI.com
The last time Major League Baseball expanded, in 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa put on a home run chase for the ages.
The first time the sport expanded, in 1961, it was Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle making a run at the record books.
Baseball has had six rounds of expansion, with the end result usually being a marked, if not dramatic, increase in offense (see chart, below). But now the sport is looking to dissolve two of its 30 teams, and how that affects the product on the field is anybody's guess.
Odds are, though, it will increase the quality of pitching more than hitting.
Thanks to the expanded strike zone introduced this season, the current trend already is slanted toward pitching. The slugging percentage of American League teams fell from .443 in 2000 to .428 in 2001; NL slugging dipped from .431 to .425. AL teams averaged 13 less home runs while NL power production fell from 187 homers per team to 184.
In 1997, the last time the major leagues featured 28 teams, the NL slugged .410 and the AL .427.
Taking all of this into account, it probably means that Barry Bonds' freshly minted record of 73 home runs should be safe for at least a year or two.
| Reversal of fortune? |
|---|
| In general, expansion has increased offense in both leagues over the years. Would contraction have the opposite effect? |
| Year |
LG |
Exp. Teams |
ERA |
R/G |
HR/G |
| 1998 |
AL |
Devil Rays |
+.08 |
+.07 |
-- |
| NL |
Diamondbacks |
+.03 |
-.01 |
+.04 |
| 1993 |
AL |
-- |
+.38 |
+.29 |
+.13 |
| NL |
Rockies; Marlins |
+.54 |
+.61 |
+.21 |
| 1977 |
AL |
Blue Jays; Mariners |
+.54 |
+.52 |
+.31 |
| NL |
-- |
+.41 |
+.42 |
+.27 |
| 1969 |
AL |
Royals; Pilots |
+.64 |
+.68 |
+.17 |
| NL |
Expos; Padres |
+.61 |
+.62 |
+.21 |
| 1962 |
AL |
-- |
-.05 |
-.09 |
+.01 |
| NL |
Colt .45s; Mets |
-.09 |
-.04 |
-.08 |
| 1961 |
AL |
Angels; Senators |
+.15 |
+.14 |
+.07 |
| NL |
-- |
+.27 |
+.13 |
+.28 |
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Rough neighborhood
| |
| Hitters Beware |
|---|
|
The AL West would be a pitching haven if Arizona replaces Texas.
|
| Team |
ERA |
Rank |
| Seattle |
3.54 |
1 |
| Oakland |
3.59 |
2 |
| Arizona |
3.88 |
2* |
| Anaheim |
4.20 |
5 |
|
* 2001 NL Ranking
| | |
|
The Arizona Diamondbacks have won the World Series, and their reward might just be a few trips to Disney World next season.
Well, Anaheim, to be exact. And instead of riding Space Mountain, they might be playing the Angels at Edison Field.
Under one of the contraction/realignment scenarios rumored, the D'backs would be moved to the AL West to give each league 14 teams. Texas would move to the AL Central, and the AL West would consist of Seattle, Oakland, Anaheim and Arizona.
So instead of defending their NL West title against the likes of respectable-but-not-dominant clubs such as the Giants and Dodgers, the D'backs would be playing a significant part of its schedule against 116-win Seattle and 102-win Oakland.
Texas posted a major league-worst 5.71 team ERA last
season; Arizona was second in the NL at 3.88. After the smoke clears, the
division would feature three clubs with team ERAs below 4.00. And the fourth team, Anaheim, had an above average team ERA of 4.20.
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