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Weighting by the net Posted: Monday December 03, 2001 10:48 PMUpdated: Tuesday December 04, 2001 1:57 AM
By Chris Apple and Marc Foster, special to CNNSI.com In previous columns, we’ve looked at weighting the goals and assists of scorers and playmakers in the NHL. We take the difference of the score when the goal was scored and value that goal based on a specific formula, previously discussed in 'All goals are not the same', then look at the difference between straight goal scoring and weighted performance. Now, what we will do is look at the reverse, weighting the performance measurements of goaltenders. We’ll look at both the overall weighted goals against and the average weighted goals against for goaltender, and the results might surprise you. Given the fast start of teams like Calgary and Detroit, you’d expect their goaltenders to be among the overall top performers both in conventional and weighted statistics. However, when looking at the weighted goals against Dominik Hasek, we find that he currently has allowed 30.30 weighted goals this year so far in 52 actual goals. Overall his performance is improved by 42 percent, and knowing that he’s played in 22 games thus far, his weighted goals average is 1.38. What might surprise you to know is that among active goaltenders with 20 or more games, Hasek ranks 12th in weighted goals against average (wGAA), not improving overall his rank of 12th in GAA. What this shows is that many of Hasek’s games with Detroit have been close in score, with Detroit either exchanging leads or allowing teams to close the score when only leading by one or two goals. But knowing he has a 15-5-1 record, his performance has been solid and allowed Detroit to win by holding off late attacks and keeping the games close. To truly illustrate the importance at looking at weighted goals against, we must look at Chris Osgood of the Islanders. In looking at goaltenders with 20 or more games, Osgood ranks ninth in GAA, however jumps six spots to third in wGAA. In 23 games, he has allowed 52 goals, with a weighted goals against of 21.00 for a remarkable 0.91 wGAA, a 60 percent improvement. Osgood has been a solid acquisition for the Islanders, allowing goals only in less important situations where the difference in the score is high. Couple that low wGAA with his 13-7-3 record shows that the Islanders picked up a valuable addition during the waiver draft. Remarkably, another top performer is Hasek’s replacement in Buffalo, Martin Biron. With a 12-11-2 record, Biron has allowed 55 goals, with a weighted value of 16.35, for a 0.65 wGAA or a 70 percent improvement. In most losing situations, he is keeping the Sabres in the game by keeping the score low, but also is very stingy in allowing goals when the Sabres take a decisive lead. On the opposite end, we see a series of goaltenders with about a 50 percent winning rate that improve very little when looking at weighted goals against and their averages. Roman Turek of the Flames has no overall improvement, as do Sean Burke of the Coyotes and Johan Hedberg of the Pittsburgh. All three site at between 51 and 63 percent winning averages, but all have been involved in battles to maintain leads and haven’t had the luxury, like Osgood, of having a large lead in most games to maintain.
Coming Next week: We’ve looked at the weighted performance of the active leaders in the NHL, but who are the sleepers? In our next column we’ll look at who some of the promising backups and future leaders might be, by looking at wGA and wGAA of all goaltenders in the league. Marc Foster is a research analyst in Fort Worth, Texas. Chris Apple is a database analyst/Internet specialist in Lincoln, Neb. Together, they operate HockeyResearch.com, and hope to one day elevate statistical research in hockey to the level seen in other sports.
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