Sizing up Yao

Historical comparisons bode well for Rockets' big man

By John Hollinger, CNNSI.com

Yao Ming's play during his rookie campaign has been impressive, particularly since he took over the Rockets' starting center job in late November. Over his past 20 games, the 7-foot-6 pivotman from China has averaged 15.8 points, 10.3 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game.

Yao Ming (last 20 games)
1st pick, Houston, 2002. 7-5, 296
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
20	15.8	10.3	1.8	2.5	49.6	82.9

But where does that put him compared to other big men selected with the top pick in the NBA draft? Is he on pace to be the next Shaq? The next Smits? The next Olowokandi?

To divine Yao's direction, let's compare how he's played over his past 20 games (given that he faced such a huge adjustment in the first month, unlike that of almost any player in history) to 20 other big dudes taken with either the first or second overall pick in the NBA Draft. The tables below compare their stats, and also include when they were drafted and how big the big guys were:

For starters, there are a few guys who Yao can't hold a candle to. All are either in the Hall of Fame or well on their way, and all except Walt Bellamy kept up the play of their rookie seasons throughout their illustrious careers:

Wilt Chamberlain
1st pick, Phila., 1959. 7-1, 275
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
72	37.6	27.0	2.3	--	.461	.582

Lew Alcindor (K. Abdul-Jabbar)
1st pick, Milwaukee, 1969. 7-2, 267
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	28.8	14.5	4.1	--	.518	.653

Walt Bellamy
1st pick, Chicago, 1961. 6-11, 245
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
79	31.6	19.0	2.7	--	.519	.644

Shaquille O'Neal
1st pick, Orlando, 1992. 7-1, 315
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
81	23.4	13.9	1.9	3.5	.562	.592

David Robinson
1st pick, S. Antonio, 1987. 7-1, 250
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	24.3	12.0	2.0	3.9	.531	.613

 

A few players of recent vintage also compare favorably to Yao's rookie season, including two guys familiar to Rockets fans:

Tim Duncan
1st pick, S. Antonio, 1997. 7-0, 260
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	21.1	11.9	2.7	2.5	.549	.662

Akeem (Hakeem) Olajuwon
1st pick, Houston, 1984. 7-0, 255
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	20.6	11.9	1.4	2.7	.538	.613

 

Ralph Sampson
1st pick, Houston, 1983. 7-4, 235
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	21.0	11.1	2.0	2.4	.523	.661

Alonzo Mourning
2nd pick, Miami, 1992. 6-10, 261
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
78	21.0	10.3	1.0	3.5	.511	.781

 

Lest Rockets' fans worry that Yao can't become a star, however, there are several prominent centers whose rookie stats are quite similar:

Patrick Ewing
1st pick, New York, 1985. 7-0, 255
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
50	20.0	9.0	2.0	2.1	.474	.739

Brad Daugherty
1st pick, Cleveland, 1986. 7-0, 269
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
80	15.7	8.1	3.8	0.8	.538	.696

 

Bob Lanier
1st pick, Detroit, 1970. 6-11, 260
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	15.8	8.1	1.8	--	.455	.726

Bill Walton
1st pick, Portland, 1974. 7-0, 240
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
35	12.8	12.6	4.8	2.7	.513	.686

Joe Barry Carroll
1st pick, Golden St., 1980. 7-0, 235
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	18.9	9.3	1.4	1.5	.491	.716

 

Additionally, there are several big men drafted with the first two picks to whom Yao compares quite favorably, including Rik Smits -- the player Yao was most often compared to before the draft:

Rik Smits
2nd pick, Indiana, 1988. 7-4, 265
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
82	11.7	6.1	0.9	1.8	.517	.722

Steve Stipanovich
2nd pick, Indiana, 1983. 7-0, 250
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
81	12.0	6.9	2.1	0.8	.480	.753

 

Kent Benson
1st pick, Indiana, 1977. 6-11, 245
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
69	7.7	4. 3	1.4	0.8	.465	.652

Shawn Bradley
2nd pick, Phila., 1993. 7-6, 263
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
49	10.3	6.2	2.0	3.0	.409	.607

 

Michael Olowokandi
1st pick, Clippers, 1998. 7-0, 269
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
45	8.9	7.9	0.6	1.2	.431	.483

Sam Bowie
2nd pick, Portland, 1984. 7-1, 263
G	PPG	RPG	APG	BPG	FG%	FT%
76	10.0	8.6	2.8	2.7	.537	.711

 

All told, Yao's rookie season portends a prominent spot in the pantheon of great centers. While he may not be able to join the inner circle with the Shaqs and Wilts, his rookie season stacks up well against perennial All-Stars like Patrick Ewing, Brad Daugherty, Bill Walton and Bob Lanier.

John Hollinger covers the NBA for CNNSI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus.

 

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