Coleman's Curse

Talented Sixer has nonetheless been toxic to his teams

By John Hollinger, CNNSI.com

If there's a bad luck charm in the NBA, my guess is that he's 6-foot-10, left-handed, and was once the top pick in the NBA Draft.

Derrick Coleman is a talented basketball player; there's no doubt about that. He averaged 15.1 points and 8.8 rebounds a year ago, has made the All-Star team in New Jersey, and has scored in double figures in 11 of his 12 NBA seasons.

So why are his teams so much better without him?

Coleman's impact on 76ers Situation  W  L  Pct.  Coleman doesn't play  7  4  .636  Coleman plays 1-19 min.  8  3  .727  Coleman plays 20+ min.  6  13  .316

Philadelphia's collapse against Boston on Monday dropped the 76ers to 6-16 in their past 22 games, after a scintillating 15-4 start. That slump coincides nicely with Coleman's return from injury and insertion into the starting lineup.

In fact, it was the 13th time this year they've lost when Coleman plays more than 20 minutes -- but they've won just six times when he plays that much. By comparison, the Sixers are 8-3 when he plays fewer than 20 minutes, and 7-4 when Coleman doesn't play at all.

Overall, it looks like a case of subtraction by addition.

But this is nothing new for Coleman. Last year, he missed 24 games with the 76ers, and the team went 14-10 without him, compared with 29-29 when he played.

That record is worse than it sounds. The Sixers suffered multiple injuries last year, and when Coleman was hurt but at least four of the top five players on the roster (Allen Iverson, Matt Harpring, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie and Eric Snow) were available, the Sixers went 13-6.

Coleman's impact, 2001-02 Situation  W  L  Pct.  Coleman plays  29  29  .500  Coleman doesn't play  14  10  .583  Coleman and only one other key Sixer out  9  5  .643  Coleman out; rest of Sixers healthy  4  1  .800

The phenomenon isn't restricted to Coleman's time in Philadelphia, either. Before coming to the 76ers, Coleman played three years for the Hornets, and Charlotte was staggeringly more effective with Coleman watching the game: 51-18 without him, but just 70-75 with him, including 12-22 in 2000-01.

Hornets with and without Coleman, 1998-2001 Year  W  L  Pct.  Difference  1998 thru 2000              With Coleman  58  53  .522     Without Coleman  17  4  .809  -.287  2000-01              With Coleman  12  22  .353     Without Coleman  34  14  .708  -.355  Overall in Charlotte              With Coleman  70  75  .483     Without Coleman  51  18  .739  -.256

So why is it that Coleman is such a drag on the Sixers' chances? Let's break down Philadelphia's performance with and without DC this season:

Sixers with Coleman Min.  Pts. For  Pts. Against  0  94.3  93.3  1-19  94.2  94.2  20+  93.1  97.2

Coleman has had almost no effect on Philadelphia's offensive performance, but defensively the Sixers have been better off without him, progressing from 93 points allowed when he doesn't play at all to 97 allowed when Coleman is on the court.

Standing his ground Opposing centers' performance vs. Coleman over last 12 games Date  Vs.  Player  Pts.  Dec. 21  Atl  Ratliff  5  Dec. 30  GS  Dampier  8  Dec. 31  LAC  Olowokandi  13  Jan. 2  Phx  Williams  6  Jan. 4  Dal  Bradley  10  Jan. 6  Ind  Miller  8  Jan. 8  Det  Robinson  17  Jan. 10  NY  Thomas  15  Jan. 12  Orl  Kemp  6  Jan. 15  NJ  Collins  10  Jan. 17  Mil  Caffey  4  Jan. 18  Was  Haywood  10

The odd thing about Coleman's performance is that while Philadelphia's opponents are scoring more, opposing centers haven't exactly been blazing a path to the basket. Coleman has played more than 20 minutes in 11 of Philadelphia's last 12 games, and in that span the only opposing center to get more than 15 points was Detroit's Clifford Robinson.

Moreover, Coleman stood up to Shaquille O'Neal so well in a 107-104 win over the Lakers that he got a standing ovation from the Philadelphia fans. Shaq got his 26 points, but had to work for it (9-of-18 from the field, seven turnovers).

So if Coleman's stopping his man, it's a bit of a mystery why the Sixers' defense is worse when he plays so much. The answer may lie in how he helps out his teammates -- or doesn't.

Regardless, this is the fifth straight year that Coleman's teams have been markedly better in his absence, and in his 12 years he's never played on a team that won more than 45 games.

It looks like his streak is headed for 13, so while the cause may be mysterious, it's hard to write off the Coleman Curse as a fluke.

John Hollinger covers the NBA for CNNSI.com and is the author of Pro Basketball Prospectus.

 

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