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A tennis grab
(Mail)bag
Posted: Mon Aug. 3,
1998
Sports Illustrated staff writer Jon Wertheim will answer your tennis questions weekly. Click here to send a question.
A few bullet points of business before we get to the
'bag:
-
Too bad you can't buy stock options in
Andre
Agassi's
career.
- When do you suppose was the last time a 28-year-old player
who started the year ranked 122 won four tournaments by the
first week of
August?
- If they played today, how many games does
Marat
Safin, who beat Agassi at the French Open, take off of our
bald-pated hero?
- Here's a problem with the ranking system as it stands
today: Slovakia's
Henrieta
Nagyova won as many points for beating German
Elena
Wagner in the finals of the Polish Open last weekend as
Lindsay
Davenport received for beating
Venus
Williams to win the Bank of the West
tournament.
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Lindsay Davenport outlasted Venus Williams to win her second tournament of the year.
(AP/Paul Sakuma)
| - Speaking of Davenport, she made a miraculous recovery from
the variety of injuries and ailments—none apparently
life-threatening—that kept her from playing for the
Fed Cup last
weekend.
- Speaking of recoveries, best wishes to
Rod
Laver for getting back on the golf course, if not the tennis
court, in the near
future.
- Speaking of Laver, here's a memo to
Boris
Becker: The Rocket was ranked No. 7 in the world when he was 37
years old. Think about hanging in there for a few more
years.
Now on to your questions
...
1) Now that Andre Agassi has won the Legg Mason in such a
dominating fashion, do you think that he can be consistent
enough to win seven matches in a row at the U.S.
Open?
2) How would you rate Marcelo Rios' chances at the U.S.
Open?
3) Do you think that Yevgeny Kafelnikov stands any chance
of doing well at the U.S. Open, since he has had such a bad
year?
—Mustafa Ehsan, Sunnyvale,
Calif.
1) Agassi? Consistent? I'm not sure Agassi is consistent
enough to drink out of a straw twice in a row without
spilling. But it's hard not to like the way he's been
playing lately, and if he can sustain this level, I don't
see anyone other than
Pete
Sampras taking him out at the Open. My one beef with Agassi is
that with his colossal talent, it's inexcusable that he
allows his ranking to yo-yo like
Oprah's weight. You watch him tear apart a quality opponent like
Tim
Henman, as he did last weekend at the Mercedes Cup, taking the
ball on the rise, hitting half-volley winners, even
cranking up his serve, and you wonder why he's only won
three
Slams.
2) It borders on farcical that a player who's been ranked
No. 1 on two separate occasions this year has only made it
past the quarters in one Grand Slam event in his life. Put
it this way: Rios is so maddeningly erratic—witness
his decisive loss to the
semi-retired Becker last month—that it would surprise
me less if he lost in the first round than if he lived up
to his likely seeding and made it to the
finals.
3) Compared to Kafelnikov, Rios is a hungry competitor who
always plays his hardest, particularly when the chips are
down. So far this year, the Russian Rocket has gone by way
of the Space Station Mir. Kafelnikov could salvage a
disappointing 1998 with
some overdue success at the Open. More likely, he's upset
fodder yet
again.
1) What's wrong with men's tennis in the U.S.? Are there
no exciting lads coming up with the potential to win on the
ATP tour?
2) The women's game has really taken off. These blassful
teenagers, with their confident, aggressive attitudes,
bring excitement to the tour that we haven't seen since the
days of Chris Evert, Evonne Goolagong, Steffi Graf and
Monica Seles. They say that Mirjana Lucic has all the tools
to be No. 1. Will she challenge Martina Hingis, the
Williams sisters and Anna Kournikova for the top prize and
the No. 1
ranking?
3) What are your thoughts about U.S. vs Spain in the Fed
Cup? Could we have won if Davenport or Venus Williams had
participated? I think Lisa Raymond played really well and
could have won if she had more experience. Maybe next year.
Who do you think will win in the Fed Cup final, Spain or
Switzerland?
—Harry C. Tiller, Washington,
D.C.
1) Now that the
Justin
Gimelstob bandwagon has been summarily abandoned, the next big thing
in American tennis is supposedly 17-year-old
Taylor
Dent, son of former touring pro
Phil
Dent.
2) Here we go with "blassful"
again. Lucic is something of an enigma. The youngest of the
teen sensations, she hits thunderbolts off both sides and
has a serve that has the potential to rival that of Venus
Williams. Problem is, Lucic
has no clue how to work a point and set up a shot. After a few
solid wins at Wimbldeon, she was humiliated by
Serena
Williams, winning only three games. Since then, she came down with
a suspicious case of "chicken pox" and had to
pull out of hardcourt events. Her showing at the U.S. Open,
however, ought to give some indication as to whether she's,
well, blassful enough to
hang with her
peers.
3) The U.S. definitely suffered when Davenport lamely
withdrew and Raymond, a player never accused of being
"match tough," took her spot. I wouldn't hold my
breath waiting for Venus Williams, who completely spurned
the USTA as a junior, to play Fed Cup.
As for the final, Hingis and
Patty
Schnyder, who is on the cusp of becoming a top 10 player, should be
able to take three of the four singles matches from
Spain.
When will one of the Williams sisters win a Grand Slam
singles
event?
—Quinn Johnson,
Oakland
Venus, who is already up to No. 6 in the world, has a legit
shot at the Australian or the U.S. Open in 1999. Her
frenetic game and sloppy footwork doesn't translate well to
clay and she needs to volley more consistently to win
Wimbldeon, but there's
nothing stopping her on the hard stuff. In the long run,
though, I think Serena will have the more successful career
because, as their father Richard has said, "She's the
meaner of the
two.".
What do you think has been the biggest difference in Monica
Seles from when she dominated the game (1990-93) to her
present status? Why was she affected so much by the
stabbing
incident?
—Anshu, New Delhi,
India
Before her hiatus in 1993, Seles was simply fearless on the
court. Her confidence was unwavering, she won big points,
she had a Sampras-like equanimity. While I don't think
she's hitting the ball much differently since returning to
the Tour in 1995, she
often tightens up in big matches and plays "not to
lose." It doesn't help that Seles' shoulder is still
not 100%, which limits the range of her service motion, and
that her fitness level is suspect. Still, Seles is only
24—and has barely picked up a
racket for two years—so there's time yet for her to regain
her mental edge and make it back to No.
1.
I was wondering what you thought of the Bryan twins chances
at being top pros? I know that they did well at the last
tournament they were in. I have seen them play several
times in college and was impressed by their
abilities.
—Craig Crenshaw, Athens,
Ga.
As a doubles team,
Bob and Mike
Bryan may well make some noise, but don't look for either of
them to crack the top, say, 40 in singles. They're both big
kids (6' 3") with solid all-court games but neither
has the one weapon to be a truly elite player. As a rule,
success in the college game
is a poor predictor of how players will fare as pros. The
American players with a real future on the Tour skip
college altogether, à là Sampras, Chang,
Agassi, rather than wait till they're in their early 20s.
The Bryans, who went to Stanford, may
replicate the status of other recent college stars like
Alex
O'Brien and
Chris
Woodruff. But I wouldn't expect much more than
that.
My favorite player is Gustavo Kuerten. He's really cute and
he has a huge forehand, but can he win anything that's not
on clay? What are his chances in the U.S. Open? Please post
your response as soon as possible because my friend Marcy
and I have a friendly wager about what you'll
say!
—Lizzy, Windhoek,
Namibia
Dear Gaga for
Guga,
I hope Marcy enjoys her steak dinner—or the equivalent
Namibian wager—because the odds of Kuerten winning
anything at the Open are about the same as Men Without Hats
releasing a platinum CD. Kuerten, it appears, is a classic
one-hit wonder—the one hit
in this case being his forehand. Everything else about his
game—his wardrobe notwithstanding—is mediocre. By
the way, a special prize for anyone out there who can name
the members of the Namibian Davis Cup
team.
1) Rank your top 10
men.
2) How do you feel about the Grand Slams devising a system
of seeding that takes into account several factors: current
ATP rank; results over most recent six weeks (including
Davis Cup play); results on a particular surface;
head-to-head performance against other top players; history
at a particular Grand
Slam.
—Steve Sheer, Boca Raton,
Fla.
If I were picking racehorses today
...
1)
Sampras
2)
Agassi
3)
Petr
Korda
4)
Rios
5)
Patrick
Rafter
6)
Carlos
Moya
7)
Greg
Rusedski
8)
Jonas
Bjorkman
9)
Henman
10)
Richard
Krajicek
As much as people hate the idea of letting the Grand Slam
poobahs come up with their own seedings that depart from
the ATP Tour rankings, I think it's a necessary evil.
Otherwise, you get ludicrous results that skew the draw.
If, for instance, the U.S.
Open were to start today, Agassi, who's won 11 straight
hardcourt matches, would be seeded lower than Moya, who's
never gotten past the second round in Flushing. Generally,
I like your criteria, particularly the bonus points for
Davis Cup play.
Is there any way we can coax John McEnroe out of
retirement? There hasn't been one
thing worth watching in tennis since he left. Don't give me a
bunch of crap about the Williams sisters or Anna
Kournikova. Tennis has sunk to depths that are challenging
soccer. The only thing worth watching for is to see who
McEnroe is going to call out
next.
—Scott Carter,
Dallas
If anything can, Scott, it's an eloquent, well-reasoned
plea like yours.
Send a question to Jon Wertheim, and check back the beginning of each week to read more of his answers.
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