1999 NBA Draft’s Most Overrated
Posted: Monday June 07, 1999 03:48 PM
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Penn State's Calvin Booth has a strong shot-blocking ability, but his lack of strength and muscle makes him a questionable pick. Jonathan Daniel/Allsport |
By Tom Heitz, Turner Sports
The great thing about the NBA Draft is that it is all based upon conjecture. Who can really predict how good or bad a player will eventually become? Though teams spend many hours and more money trying to predict what players will shine at the next level, the fact remains that it's easier to find an honorable Olympic Committee member than a potential NBA stud.
Oh, there were the Shaquille O'Neal's and Patrick Ewing's -- great college players whom everyone knew would become great pros. But there were also the Ralph Sampson's and Joe Barry Carroll's -- great college players whom everyone knew would become great pros, but didn't.
With that in mind, the following is my list of the top ten most overrated players available for the June 30th NBA Draft (7 p.m. on TNT). Though I haven't seen all of these players, I've been in contact with those "in the know" and I have read about these potential draftees. Obviously, that makes me an expert, right?
1. Baron Davis , 6-3, PG UCLA
He's explosive and can push the ball in the open court, but with a suspect jumpshot and the fact that he's out of shape makes one wonder. You would think that once he decided to enter the draft, he would have done all he could to trim down and show the scouts that he's ready to lead a team. Plus, is he fully recovered from last year's ACL surgery? We'll find out in next week's Pre Draft Camp in Chicago.
2. Corey Maggette , 6-7, SF Duke
I'll admit it, I haven't watched this guy play that much. The fact that he averaged less than 20 minutes a game last season at Duke has a lot to do with it. He can run, jump and drive but can he shoot? He's similar to Jerry Stackhouse and Stack's game has more holes than the new gun control laws.
3. Jumaine Jones , 6-9, F Georgia
In five years, this guy will be nothing more than a jumpshooter. He'll follow the same path that Rex Chapman, Walt Williams and Dan Majerle have taken. You know what I'm talking about -- players who came into the league as athletic-types but somehow got away from the slashing and cutting and fell in love with their jumpers. Jones has too much talent to be a one-dimensional player.
4. Lee Nailon , 6-9, F TCU
The same questions that arose when he declared last year for the draft are still out there. Is he tall enough? Are his gaudy numbers (22.8 ppg and 9.3 rpg) a product of the Horned Toads' up-tempo offense? And can he hit an outside shot? While Nailon was one of the better players at the Nike Desert Classic, scouts will know more if he shows up at the Chicago camp.
5. Any (and I mean any) Foreign Player
It's amazing how people get excited over all the foreigners who are eligible for the draft. When was the last time any of these-type players ever helped a team? You can make a case that Drazen Petrovic and Toni Kukoc are the only overseas players who did not attend college in the U.S. and had a major impact with an NBA team. Let's go back to last year when Dirk Nowitzki, Radoslav Nesterovic, Mirsad Turkcan and Vladimir Stepania were all picked in the first round. Any of those guys make a major impact with their teams? Enough said.
6. Todd MacCullough , 7-0, C Washington
I can't help but look at this guy and think "career backup center". He's big and has a decent inside game, but that's about it. He's not expected to go higher than twenty, so it's hard to classify him as overrated. But I do.
7. Dion Glover , 6-5, G Georgia Tech
All indications are that he'll pull himself out of the draft and head back to Atlanta for his junior season. But still, the fact that he even entered the draft after missing the past season following ACL surgery is reason enough to consider him overrated. If he heads back to school, that would give Duke three more underclassmen in the draft than Tech. I don't know if Bobby Cremins is happy or sad about that.
8. Calvin Booth , 6-11, Penn State
A shot-blocker and that's it. He was the only legitimate center on last summer's Goodwill Games' team yet played fewer than ten minutes a contest. The fact that he's even being considered as a late first-rounder and early second-rounder is scary.
9. Shawnta Rogers , 5-4, George Washington
A nice story in the mold of Muggsy Bogues and Earl Boykins. But those guys can't help a team and neither will Rogers. If Rogers was 6-0, he wouldn't be considered a pro prospect.
10. G.G. Smith , 6-2, G Georgia
If his father wasn't Tubby Smith, he wouldn't even be a lock for the CBA Draft.
Next Monday I will list my top ten most underrated players for the '99 draft. Try and contain your excitement over the next week, if you can.
Tom Heitz has been involved with Turner Sports production for four years, and currently provides behind-the-scenes analysis for the NBA on TNT.
Provided courtesy of TNT, copyright 2003
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