The Health Club

Cleveland's Eddie Murray, who hit his 490th career home run last Friday, appears to be a lock to join one of baseball's most exclusive fraternities, the 500-homer club, which has a membership of 14. But after Murray, which other current players are likely to hit 500? This might seem to be the age of the home run hitter, but injuries and labor strife have put a crimp in the efforts of some of the game's biggest bangers.

One of the hallmarks of the great sluggers of the past was durability. Hank Aaron missed only 106 games from his first full season in 1955 through '71, during which time he hit 626 home runs. Willie Mays missed only 39 games from 1954 to '66 and hit 518 homers in that span. From 1956 to '66 Frank Robinson missed only 77 games and hit 373 homers. Even the oft-injured Mickey Mantle missed only 45 games from 1955 through '61, when he slugged 290 of his 536 home runs. But today's mashers are a different story.

First off, they all lost at least 65 games in the last two seasons because of the strike. Injuries have also taken a heavy toll. The Mariners' Ken Griffey Jr., who reached 150 career homers faster than all but two players in major league history, missed 73 games last season with a fractured left wrist and is out again this year with a broken hamate bone in his right hand. Jose Canseco of the Red Sox had 324 career homers at week's end, but he has missed 190 games in the last 4½ seasons because of various injuries. The Rangers' Juan Gonzalez is only 26 and had 184 career homers through Sunday, but he has missed 108 games in the last 3½ years, mostly because of back problems. And As first baseman Mark McGwire has missed 255 games in the last 3½ years, yet still passed the 300-homer mark last week.

If not for recurring heel injuries the past few seasons, McGwire might have stroked number 400 last week. At 32, can he avoid injury and thereby get enough at bats to hit 200 more homers? "I was on base the other day in Detroit," McGwire says, "and [Tigers shortstop] Alan Trammell said to me, 'Only 200 more, that won't be hard for you.' I told him, 'Two hundred is a lot of homers.' "

If anyone can do it, it's McGwire. From 1986 to '92 McGwire reached 200 career homers in fewer at bats (2,852) than all but lour players in history. And despite the injuries that have prevented him from winning a home run title outright, he's still hitting taters at a Ruthian pace. Through Sunday he had hit 64 in his last 162 games—at the astonishing rate of one every 7.9 at bats. (His average of one homer every 8.1 at bats in 1995 topped Babe Ruth's single-season mark of 8.5 in 1920. The Babe holds the career record of one in every 11.8 at bats, while McGwire stands at one every 12.7 at bats for his career through Sunday.) And even though he has already lost 23 games this season to injuries, he still had 25 homers at week's end; only Baltimore's Brady Anderson, with 27, and the Cubs' Sammy Sosa, with 26, had more.

But he keeps getting hurt, sometimes in the normal course of running the bases. Similarly, Griffey broke his hamate bone taking a normal swing in a game on June 19. In May, Braves rightfielder David Justice dislocated his right shoulder while swinging at a pitch, ending his season. Last year Dean Palmer, the Rangers' slugging third baseman, tore his left biceps in mid-swing, effectively ending his season. Why do so many players today keep getting hurt in these unusual ways?

Managers Don Baylor of the Rockies, Art Howe of the A's and Marcel Lachemann of the Angels are among many who believe players are too muscular today. "It's not just the mass, it's that the mass is put on so quickly," says Baylor. "You see a guy his rookie year, and two years later he's put on 35 pounds. You think, Oh, my god, what happened? Sometimes a player's frame and his body are not ready for that. I remember first shaking hands with Willie Mays and Hank Aaron. Their strength was here [indicating his fingers] to here [his elbow]. And those guys never missed a game."

Aaron was 6 feet, 180 pounds, Mays 5'10½", 170. In their prime they had perfect bodies for baseball—lean, yet strong and well proportioned. The average size of the 14 players who have hit 500 homers is slightly more than 6 feet and 190 pounds. Among today's players who have a shot at 500 homers (chart, below), the Giants' Barry Bonds and the Braves' Fred McGriff come close to fitting that profile, and they have been relatively injury-free. But McGwire is 6'5", 250 pounds. Canseco is 6'4", 240. Gonzalez is 6'3", 215, but he lost about 25 pounds in the off-season because he had become too bulky. You have to wonder whether all that time in the weight room is risky,

McGwire says his size and strength are assets and don't make him injury-prone. "The worst year of my life [in 1991 he hit .201], I didn't lift a weight," says McGwire, who works out five days a week, even during the season. "After that I said I'd never stop lifting. It's something I enjoy. I love being in good shape."

Stricken Skipper