Can Anyone Beat Duke?

Along with suntan lotion and a Grapefruit League schedule, please toss a volume of Coleridge into the knapsack you're taking to St. Petersburg. A willing suspension of disbelief, to use the poet's phrase, is necessary as we ponder the Duke-against-the-field look of this year's Final Four. (Question: Did anyone in any office pool anywhere not have the Blue Devils in St. Pete?)

Remove from your mind the vision of Michigan State, Duke's semifinal opponent on Saturday, clanging jump shots and turning their games into rock fights at 10 paces. Forget that the preseason goal of Ohio State, which could play the Blue Devils in the championship game, was, in the words of coach Jim O'Brien, "maybe to get invited to the NIT." Ignore the fact that Connecticut, Duke's other final-game possibility, barely beat Gonzaga 67-62 to make the Final Four and seems to go through more emotional ups and downs during one game than the Blue Devils have gone through all season.

Most of all get amnesiac about Duke's eye-popping statistical dominance this season (chart, page 42); the formidable specter of coach Mike Krzyzewski, Mr. March, directing traffic from the sideline in his fifth Final Four of the decade; and the learned opinions of most of America's hoop heads, including Oklahoma coach Kelvin Sampson, who says, "When I think of a great team, I think of Duke. When I think of another great team, I think of Duke's bench." Just get your mind to accept the notion, for a moment, that the Blue Devils can be beat.

After all, Duke was the last team to beat a seemingly invincible opponent in the Final Four, when it upset unbeaten UNLV 79-77 in 1991 for the first of Krzyzewski's back-to-back titles. "Coach told us, 'I'm going to be talking to the media all the time about how great UNLV is,' " says Bobby Hurley, the point guard on that team," 'but I'm going to tell you guys right here, right now, I think we can beat them, and I want you to believe we can beat them.' That kind of confidence rubs off." This year's first-time-to-the-Final Four coaches—Michigan State's Tom Izzo, the 1998 national coach of the year whose team seems to reflect his smiling-assassin persona; Ohio State's O'Brien, who worked so many miracles this season he should hold his summer camps at Lourdes; and Connecticut's Jim Calhoun, an edgy sideline sentry who lives and dies with every possession—will be working the mental game, too, and all are experts at it.

Do we really think any of these supporting acts in St. Pete can beat the Blue Devils? We do. (Please note that can is different from will.) Here's how:

Michigan state over duke, Saturday night. In the Spartans, the Blue Devils will be meeting a true modern Stone Age fam-i-ly. Though they frequently fail to draw iron, the Spartans rarely fail to draw blood. Witness the collision between point guard Mateen Cleaves and Oklahoma's Eduardo Najera, who was setting a pick in the Midwest Regional semifinal last Friday night. Najera ended up with a concussion and a lacerated chin, while Cleaves walked away with just a head bruise. In the ensuing huddle, assistant coach Tom Crean cracked up the Spartans by saying of Cleaves, "It's not like he's missing an arm or anything." In one practice this season, center Antonio Smith says he was elbowed in the face a dozen times, sustaining two chipped teeth, and had to get stitches in his right elbow after he used it to knock out one of guard Doug Davis's teeth. Saving Private Ryan was a cotillion compared with the average Michigan State scrimmage.

The Spartans come about their toughness naturally. Cleaves, Smith, shooting guard Charlie Bell and forward Morris Peterson (Michigan State's leading scorer even though he comes off the bench) are all natives of Flint, the blue-collar Michigan city that defines gritty. They played together on various schoolyard and AAU teams, but high school was another matter. For example, during one game between Northern High (Cleaves and Smith's team) and Northwestern High (Peterson's), Smith went after Peterson when Peterson committed a hard foul on Smith's brother Robaire. A scuffle ensued until Cleaves played peacemaker—by pushing Peterson away. All four of the Flintstones proudly sport FLINT tattoos on their arms. Even Sparty, Michigan State's broom-headed mascot, was wearing a paste-on skin FLINT during Sunday's 73-66 win over Kentucky in the Midwest final.

This Duke team is supposed to be tougher than previous Blue Devils teams, which, rightly or wrongly, were thought to have had a soft, preppy aspect to them (SI, Feb. 22). In any case there's no reason to believe that the Blue Devils will recoil in terror at the sight of a few tattoos, particularly since they rolled the 'Stones 73-67 earlier this season. But Duke has spent so much time playing above the fray, refining the art of clean, surgical basketball, that one has to wonder how they will do if their semifinal turns into a contest of rim-rattling jump shots (the Spartans outrebounded the Blue Devils by an absurd 41-25 margin in their Dec. 2 meeting) and tooth-rattling picks. Remember this: Duke has trailed only five times in the second half this season, but three of those times it was to unintimidated urban teams—Cincinnati, St. John's and Fresno State. If Michigan State keeps the game close, it just might steal a win the way Cincinnati did in handing the Blue Devils their only loss so far this season.

Ohio state over duke, championship game, Monday night. A few months ago the Buckeyes, known as the Suckeyes during last season's 8-22 campaign, weren't sure they were as good as Northwestern, never mind dreaming about challenging the likes of Duke. "Who ever thought this could happen?" O'Brien whispered to point guard Scoonie Perm, as they embraced at midcourt after a 77-74 win over St. John's in the South Regional final. "Not me," answered Penn. If not you, Scoonie, then who? While Duke's 36-1 season has been an almost uninterrupted ascent, Ohio State's has been nothing less than a magical mystery tour.

The tour leaders have been Penn, who has been mightier than just about anyone in the tournament, and southpaw shooting guard Michael Redd, who seems unstoppable once he decides to bull his way to the hoop, which is a large percentage of the time he has the ball. Two players, no matter how formidable (this duo averages 36.8 of Ohio State's 75.3 points per game), do not an upset make, of course, and, for the Buckeyes' backcourt to dominate, it must find a way to get Blue Devils quarterback William Avery into foul trouble and onto the bench.