Magic Is Gone

Many recognized measures of success in baseball have changed not a whit, remaining as fixed as stone mile markers along an ancient highway. Babe Ruth might never have DH'd in an interleague game for a wild-card contender, but 200 hits for the Bambino resonates with the same excellence now as in his day. Likewise, a .300 hitter and a 20-game winner still carry undeniable seals of approval, and 100 wins validates a team's greatness.

With home runs, however, the old markers are useless. Eastern Europe has been redrawn less over the past decade than the boundaries of what makes a great home run hitter. Here's an example of how fast home run standards have changed: In 1992 Dave Hollins of the Phillies hit 27 dingers and finished fourth in the National League home run race, eight off the lead of the Padres' Fred McGriff. Only seven years later Edgar-do Alfonzo of the Mets hit the same number of jacks as Hollins and finished 25th in the league.

Thirty home runs used to convey a sense of elitism and wonderment—and once upon a time so did one-hour Martinizing. A record 45 players hit 30 dingers last year, compared with only five as recently as 1988. What's more amazing: that Steve Finley could become a 30-home-run hitter for the third time or that Hall of Famers Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Brooks Robinson, Jackie Robinson and Charlie Gehringer never were?

Likewise, 400 career home runs doesn't confer the same status as it did. Six players have hit their 400th homer in the past three seasons—the first time so many have reached that mark in such a brief interval—and before this year is over, Rafael Palmeiro, who needs 16, and Albert Belle, who needs 24, could join recent additions Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, Jose Canseco, Cal Ripken Jr., Ken Griffey Jr. and McGriff in the club. Even grand slams, the rarest of taters, are losing luster. The rate of grannies has nearly doubled in just the past eight years (one every 13.8 games, compared with every 25.1 games in 1992) and almost tripled over the past 25 years (37.2).

"If Frank Robinson played today in Camden Yards," says former Orioles pitcher Jim Palmer of his old teammate, "I know he'd hit at least 70 home runs, maybe 80." Robinson, fourth on the alltime home run list and an 11-time All-Star, hit 40 home runs in a season only once. Jay Buhner of the Mariners, named to one All-Star team in his career, has three 40-homer seasons.

Go figure, but do so at your own risk. The mileposts have changed.

[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]