1 Baltimore Ravens

Elvis Grbac knew he was stepping into an enviable but dicey situation when he became the first man in NFL history to replace a still-active incumbent Super Bowl-winning quarterback. But two things made him feel secure during the first Ravens minicamp of the off-season: Tony Siragusa's needle ("We won the Super Bowl without you, so don't screw it up," the Goose told Grbac) and coach Brian Billick's faith. When two downfield receivers were covered on a third-down play during practice, Grbac threw to a back in the flat and came up short of a first down. "Perfect!" Billick hollered. Grbac realized then that Billick trusted him to know when to take the safe and unproductive completion—and turn things over to Baltimore's piranha of a defense to do its thing.

The Ravens won last year in spite of Trent Dilfer, and though they marched through the playoffs unscathed, Billick knew that Dilfer's popgun performance-he completed only 48% of his passes in the playoffs and looked like Rick Ankiel in the Super Bowl—would eventually cost Baltimore. Grbac threw for 4,169 yards with 28 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while completing 59.6% of his passes for the otherwise toothless Chiefs last year. The quarterback switch was a no-brainer.

Accuracy is vital to the precision attack that Billick runs, and he thinks Grbac can once again be the 67% passer he was in three seasons of spot duty with the 49ers early in his career. "The difference between leading the league in passing and being mediocre is microscopic," says Billick. "Teams throw about 500 passes a year. The difference between a 65 percent passer and a 55 percent passer is 50 completions. That's three a game. I think Elvis can give us those three throws."

He'll have to. During a training-camp rushing drill on Aug. 8, scrub defensive lineman Kelly Gregg fell across the left knee of running back Jamal Lewis (1,364 yards as a rookie last year), severing the left anterior cruciate ligament. Instant crisis: Baltimore had to replace one of its three indispensable players (the others are Grbac and Super Bowl MVP linebacker Ray Lewis), and veteran running back Terry Allen isn't likely to take up much of the slack. Jamal's mishap followed an injury to right tackle Leon Searcy, who will be out until October with a torn left triceps. Suddenly one of the 10 best running games in football looks like one of the 10 worst.

Last year Lewis pulled the Baltimore offense out of an October swoon. The Ravens won their final 11 games (including playoffs), and Lewis averaged 107 yards over that span. Lewis's injury made the Ravens, says Billick, "significantly more thankful that we signed Elvis. This will change how we play offense, because we wanted to build 10-, 14- and 17-point leads and then count on Jamal to run out the clock. Now our five-yard runs might have to become five-yard completions." With Lewis gone, the offense's two new playmakers—Grbac and a rookie tight end with great hands, Todd Heap-become much higher Fantasy Football draft choices. Look for Grbac, a master of the fake, to make a living on play-action passes, even with a mediocre running back behind him.

The question about Grbac is his leadership. When he invited a select group of Kansas City players to a party at his house early last season, some of the uninvited bristled. When he tried to make amends by inviting everyone to another party at his home, all but a handful of players stayed away. "The defense hated Elvis," says a source close to the Chiefs, "and he didn't have the personality to win them back. He's pretty much a loner."

In fairness, recent K.C. teams flunked chemistry class, and Grbac should fit better with the we-are-family Ravens. Any defense that keeps a lid on its anger when the offense goes a month without scoring, as Baltimore's attack did last October, has the team concept figured out.

Thirteen of the 14 players who logged the most minutes on the Ravens' defense last year are back this season, so Baltimore should win 17-14 games if the offense struggles. That's assuming, of course, that the Ravens, who were unusually healthy last year, stay that way. If so, Baltimore will continue to fly under Football America's radar. And win. "I get the feeling that the country's still trying to figure out who we are and where we came from," says left tackle Jonathan Ogden. "We snuck up so fast. Are we a one-year wonder? A fluke?"

If attendance in the training room stays low, the Ravens will be playing January football. Of course, with Searcy and Jamal Lewis entering sick bay in one bad August week, that's a very big if.

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