Enemy Lines An Opposing Teams Scout Sizes Up The Heat

"Opponents should be able to win most of their matchups against these guys, who are going to have more trouble scoring than ever. I wouldn't be surprised if they have a game in the 50s....

With Alonzo Mourning out, Brian Grant is their only capable center, but he's more effective at power forward. Grant's not going to score much over centers inside, so he'll move out for the midrange jumper—and that means he won't be getting to the line as much....

Eddie Jones is Miami's most talented player, but they're not going to give him the ball and get out of the way. Jones is a straight-line driver. He's effective when you run out to get him, and he catches you leaning....

Travis Best has to be more offensive-minded, and on defense he must keep his man out of the middle. He's the only point guard they can count on, so they'd better hope he holds up over the course of the season....

Caron Butler is going to be a good NBA player. He's a strong re-bounder who's more mature and tougher than most rookies....

Put it all together and it looks as if the Heat would be better off trying to run, but if Pat Riley does give them some freedom, it will be a gradual process. He'll want to build from the defensive end first. A lot will depend on what happens early in the season: If they start pushing the ball a little and Best makes bad decisions, then Riley will have to slow it down again. He can't let them keep making mistakes, because they don't have the firepower to make up a double-digit deficit. He'd rather have them try to hang close and hope they can execute down the stretch....

Next summer they'll end up with another lottery pick and the cap room from Mourning's expired contract to pursue a top free agent. You'd think that after going through this hard year, Riley would stick around next season to enjoy better times, but who knows?"