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Expert Opinion
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We asked former Alabama and new Texas A&M coach Dennis Franchione (right)—whose Crimson Tide lost to Oklahoma, Georgia and Auburn, and beat LSU—for his picks for the January bowls.
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Bowl
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Predicted Score
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OUTBACK (JAN. 1)
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Florida (8-4) 35, Michigan (9-3) 27
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Gators have superior team speed and a big-play QB in Rex Grossman
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COTTON (Jan. 1)
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Texas (10-2) 32, LSU (8-4) 14
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Tigers will be no match for Longhorns in this home game for Texas
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GATOR (Jan. 1)
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Notre Dame (10-2) 21, N.C. State (10-3) 20
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Teams are evenly matched, but Irish have been my pick since I first pretended to be Joe Theismann in my backyard in rural Kansas
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CAPITAL ONE (Jan. 1)
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Penn State (9-3) 27, Auburn (8-4) 17
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Auburn plays good D, but Larry Johnson's a difference-maker
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ROSE (Jan. 1)
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Oklahoma (11-2) 29, Wash. State (10-2) 20
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Emotions will be running high for Cougars and lame-duck coach Mike Price, but Sooners are just too talented
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SUGAR (Jan. 1)
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Georgia (12-1) 38, Florida State (9-4) 21
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Bulldogs coach Mark Richt, a former Seminoles assistant, wants this one badly and will get it because he has better personnel
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ORANGE (Jan. 2)
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Iowa (11-1) 38, USC (10-2) 31
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Hawkeyes have had the magic going all season; if not for a play or two they would be going for an undefeated season
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FIESTA (Jan. 3)
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Ohio State (13-0) 24, Miami (12-0) 21
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Ohio State has the right formula for this upset: power running game, tough defense, knack for playing hard on every down
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Time for a math lesson. Miami's offense averaged nearly 42 points while extending the sixth-longest winning streak in college football history to 34 games and putting the Hurricanes in position to win a second consecutive national title, in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 3. Their opponent, unbeaten Ohio State, averaged less than 19 points in its last five games and wasn't always impressive down the stretch. Conclusion: The Buckeyes are not going to win a shootout Their defense is going to have to find a way to slow down Miami and give the feeble Ohio State offense a shot at winning the school's first national title since 1968.
This isn't all bad news for the Buckeyes, who have been living off their defense since the leaves started falling (and freshman tailback Maurice Clarett got hurt). "Their defense is physical and disciplined," says Purdue offensive coordinator Jim Chaney. "They do not get themselves out of position, and they do not allow big plays." Sound defense, however, will not be enough for the 13-point underdogs to upset Miami. The Hurricanes have two Heisman finalists ( quarterback Ken Dorsey and tailback Willis McGahee) and at least three other offensive starters who are likely future first-round NFL draft picks ( wideout Andre Johnson, center Brett Romberg and tight end Kellen Winslow). Miami will be the fastest and most explosive team Ohio State has seen, and at least three of Ohio State's best defenders will have to raise their level of play to halt the Canes.
Matt Wilhelm, middle linebacker. The 6'5", 245-pound senior led the Buckeyes with 111 tackles. At the vortex of a 4-3 alignment, he gets most of the inside running plays and cutbacks funneled to him. For Ohio State to succeed, he must stop McGahee. Easy to say. Consider the play McGahee made against Pittsburgh on Nov. 21, when Miami trailed the Panthers 14-7 with just over two minutes left in the first half. On first-and-10 from their 31, McGahee ran left, found little room, quickly slashed to the inside, cut abruptly right and ripped into the open field. Sixty-nine yards later the game was tied and Pitt was deflated. Miami went on to win 28-21. "We had the play stuffed," says Pitt defensive coordinator Paul Rhoads. "We had people in every gap, we had every zone covered. A great runner made a great cut, and our guys just froze. He broke three sets of ankles on one play. On that kind of play, I think Miami's speed is going to surprise Ohio State."
Mike Doss, strong safety. A three-time All-America, he is the Buckeyes' best player, a physical run-stopper who likes to attack the line of scrimmage but is also effective in zone pass coverage. "They never let Doss get very far away from the ball," says Chaney. To control the Miami run, Ohio State will often have to outnumber the Hurricanes' blockers, with eight players in the box and three defensive backs against Miami's favored two-back set. Doss, a senior, will be the X factor, the player who either commits to the run or drops into coverage. He must hide his intentions from Dorsey as long and as convincingly as possible, because if Dorsey sees Doss moving up, he'll know he's getting single coverage and exploit it. If he sees Doss sitting back, he'll give the ball to McGahee.
"You have to make Dorsey read your defense, postsnap," says Rutgers coach Greg Schiano, who was an assistant coach at Miami when Dorsey arrived. "He can still be effective, but it's a lot harder for him that way"
Chris Gamble, cornerback. A sophomore, he started the season exclusively at wide receiver but finished it as a 60-minute man in the mold of Charles Woodson—and as one of the best corners in the country. Against Miami he'll likely find himself in man-to-man coverage against Johnson, Roscoe Parrish or Ethenic Sands, because Ohio State will probably cheat senior free safety Donnie Nickey to whichever side sophomore corner Dustin Fox is playing. "Nine of the 11 guys on their defense are probably the best in the conference at their position," said one Big Ten offensive coordinator. "Fox is one of the other two. Teams were able to do some things against him. Ohio State is going to have to roll their coverage to give him some help. That's going to leave Gamble on an island. He's good, and he's going to have to be."
"Look at Miami's wide receivers," says Schiano. " Andre Johnson is as good as you get. Winslow is just like a wide receiver, and he's as good as you get. And Dorsey is not only bright but physically talented, which he doesn't get credit for."
The key for Gamble, and for the combination of Doss, Fox and Nickey, is to disrupt Miami's flow. "It's all rhythm with Miami," says one Big East coach. "Once the receiver plants his foot and commits to the route, the ball is gone. And they get big chunks. They don't drive the field—they make big plays."
But here's the killer: It's possible to do everything right against Dorsey and still lose. On Nov. 30 in Syracuse, Miami was leading 14-0 early in the second quarter. On second-and-goal from the Syracuse four, Dorsey took a quick drop. "He looked for Roscoe Parrish on the fade, but Syracuse had outside leverage on him, so no sale there," says a coach who has seen the Miami- Syracuse tape. "Then he looked for Winslow in the middle, but he was bracketed [covered front and back]. Nothing there. So he saw Andre Johnson at the back of the end zone to his right. He was covered, but Dorsey sat on his back foot, fully cocked, then just gave Johnson a little head shake to the middle. Johnson cut, and—boom!—touchdown. Dorsey read three receivers, improvised and completed the ball."
If he does that on Jan. 3 in Tempe, class dismissed.