Here's the formula again. Denver, which is scrambling, is at Indianapolis, which on Sunday clinched a playoff spot. The AFC South title would come with a win over the Broncos. I'd give Denver a shot if—and you know what's coming—coach Mike Shanahan had called for a chippie field goal in overtime on Sunday against the Browns instead of Portis's 38th carry. What a disaster. Now Portis is hobbled with a sprained knee and ankle, and Denver's season could be lost, all for those three extra yards. The Colts win.
Baltimore at Cleveland is no gimme. The injury-wracked Browns have been playing courageous football, while the Ravens showed last weekend that they're not upset-proof. What the hell, I'll take the Browns in an upset. The 6-8 Jets are very serious about wanting to finish with a .500 record, so I'm going with New York in an improbable upset over the league's hottest team, the Patriots. Here's another improbable hometown win: the Bills, and the wintry northern winds, over the Dolphins.
Finally, Green Bay travels to Oakland on Monday night to meet a Raiders team that threw a wrench into the Ravens' playoff plans last weekend. Don't expect a repeat. The Packers will survive a rough one loaded with penalties and turnovers.