The Straight Answer On Breaking Balls

The American league long ago picked up the reputation of being more of a breaking-ball league than the National, in which pitchers were said to be more likely to challenge hitters with fastballs. Hitters who failed to make a successful transition from the NL to the AL—including Jack Clark, Glenn Davis and Kevin Mitchell, in the 1980s and early '90s—gave that theory anecdotal credence.

In 1998 former catcher and renowned broadcaster Tim McCarver wrote in his book Baseball for Brain Surgeons and Other Fans, "Particularly in the American League, pitchers are reluctant to throw fastballs, especially when they are behind in the count."

Might this still be true (if it ever were) at a time when league identities have been blurred by increased player movement, interleague play and the consolidation of umpires? Dodgers general manager Paul DePodesta found the answer to be no. While assistant G.M. in Oakland two years ago, DePodesta analyzed the percentage of fastballs thrown in so-called hitter's counts (I and 0, 2 and 0, 2 and 1, 3 and 0, 3 and 1).

"It's a myth," DePodesta says, echoing the results of Inside Edge's analysis of last season's numbers (chart, above). "The data showed that there was almost no difference. Actually, the [percentage of] fastballs thrown in the American League in those counts was about one percent higher."

[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]