SI Vault
 
CHUTES AND LADDERS
NATE SILVER
May 07, 2007
With a nod to Milton Bradley (no, not the A's outfielder), SI projects which players, with the first and often deceptive month of April behind them, are likely to see their numbers climb--or take a slide
Decrease font Decrease font
Enlarge font Enlarge font
May 07, 2007

Chutes And Ladders

With a nod to Milton Bradley (no, not the A's outfielder), SI projects which players, with the first and often deceptive month of April behind them, are likely to see their numbers climb--or take a slide

View CoverRead All Articles
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Long in decline, Erstad's value is further diminished by his manager's insistence on batting him at the top of the order, where his .313 OBP at week's end has limited RBI chances for the mashers behind him.

RAMON ORTIZ
P Minnesota Twins

Good start (2.57 ERA), good pitching coach ( Rick Anderson), reasonably good value ($3.1 million). But though he's throwing strikes, he's not missing bats (14 K's in 35 innings). That will catch up to him.

BRADEN LOOPER
P St. Louis Cardinals

The wins (three) and ERA (1.91) are nice, but most pitchers lose something moving from the pen to the rotation, and fatigue is bound to catch up to Looper, who's never pitched more than 86 innings.

ADAM DUNN
OF Cincinnati Reds

Why should we anticipate a drop-off in his .874 OPS through Sunday? His career April OPS is 200 points higher than his post-April OPS, the largest split for any player since 1960 (minimum: 300 plate appearances).

BARRY ZITO
P San Francisco Giants

He's not the worst free-agent signing, but somewhere between his two starts to begin '07 (0--2, 8.18 ERA) and three strong subsequent outings (2--1, 1.32) lies the truth: Zito is a slightly above-average pitcher.

TIM HUDSON
P Atlanta Braves

Continue Story
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9