Starting Over

BESIDES A knee-buckling curveball that froze MVP candidate Carlos Beltran for the final strike of the National League Championship Series and a mid-90s fastball that overmatched the Tigers in the World Series, Cardinals righthander Adam Wainwright also has plenty of humility. When asked last week about the difference between last spring and this one, he replied, "Last year you could pick maybe two people off the street that knew who I was, and that was probably my mom and my brother."

Wainwright, 25, dominated October as a closer (four saves, no runs, 15 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings), but now the Cardinals are returning him to a starting role (the job he held for 135 of his 137 minor league appearances). Long on relievers but short on starters in the wake of the free-agent departures of Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis, the Cardinals felt they had little choice. "He should develop into a top-of-the-line starter," says St. Louis G.M. Walt Jocketty, whose desperation for rotation help may yet prompt him to trade for a veteran such as the Phillies' Jon Lieber, the Yankees' Carl Pavano or the Dodgers' Brad Penny.

Last spring was a watershed for Wainwright, who wondered whether he had the mental toughness to play pro ball after he was cut from the U.S. Olympic qualifying team in 2003. For guidance he turned to '05 Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter, who had his own doubts while recovering from shoulder injuries that forced him to miss all of '03. "I told myself," says Wainwright, "I am not going back to the minor leagues."

Wainwright, of course, did not. He steadily worked his way from middle man to setup man to closer to postseason hero. Last week he allowed himself the small indulgence of recalling his ninth inning closeout of the Mets to clinch the NLCS. "Be glad to," he said, smiling. "The first two batters, I was a mess. I let myself think what would happen if I didn't get the job done. That was the first time I did that all year. Every fan at Shea Stadium was crushing me. All year I never heard the crowd. But I could hear them this time, and they were letting me have it." After the first two Mets got hits, Wainwright told himself, Enough is enough. "And when Beltran came up," he says, "I knew I was going to get the job done. I said to myself, 'I am going to throw this curveball like it's the best curveball I ever threw in my life.'"

Now he's ready to take on a new challenge, with the old outlook.

Baseball Prospectus Says
BP's research indicates that a typical pitcher can expect a 25% jump in his ERA when he makes the transition from the bullpen to the rotation. Wainwright, though, can probably handle the switch as well as anyone. He's only one year removed from being a starter in the minors, his curve is a pitch that should hold up well with repeated use, and he's got an excellent defense behind him to help keep his pitch counts down. But some deterioration in his numbers--and perhaps a stint on the DL as he adjusts to the higher workload--is inevitable.
BOTTOM LINE: PECOTA projects a 9--8 record, and a 3.88 ERA in 25 starts.