Is This The Year? (no, But ...)

IN HIS often explosive 19-year managerial career, Lou Piniella has been ejected 57 times, including once from an exhibition game. When he retired as a player, from the New York Yankees in 1984, he received a bashed-in water cooler as a farewell gift from a fan. But last week, as the first-year Cubs' manager addressed his pitchers, catchers and a smattering of position players--most notably $136 million free-agent prize Alfonso Soriano--for the first time, his usual dour countenance was as sunny as the azure Arizona sky. "We're going to have some fun," the 63-year-old Piniella assured the assembled. "It's going to be nice and relaxed here."

Did the man say relaxed? Pressure on the Northsiders to win is now as high as it's ever been, following the Cubs' 96-loss finish and a wild-spending winter in which ownership ran up a free-agent tab totaling more than $297 million, a record for a single off-season. While the Cubs' players welcomed their manager's What, Me Worry? attitude, they weren't completely buying it: By Friday they had started to organize a clubhouse pool inviting wagers on the date of Sweet Lou's first meltdown.

Nonetheless, the tone at the Cubs' camp was upbeat, purposeful and, yes, relaxed. Soriano quietly arrived in Mesa four days ahead of the reporting deadline for position players--a stark contrast to the traditional late arrivals of the Cubs' last superstar, Sammy Sosa. First baseman Derrek Lee, who missed most of last year with a fractured right wrist, was all smiles as he took one healthy cut after another in the batting cage. Oft-sidelined Mark Prior, the onetime ace who's vying for a rotation spot after a disastrous 2006 (1--6, 7.21 ERA), threw pain-free and looked sharp.

Of course, there were the usual signs of the apocalypse, courtesy of the franchise's other injury-cursed righthander, Kerry Wood, who bruised his right ribcage three days before the start of camp--while stepping out of a hot tub. Wood, who has been pegged as a closer candidate if Ryan Dempster's struggles from last season persist, met with reporters after he was injured and said with a shrug and a smile, "It's that time of year again." (Wood was back throwing off the mound two days later, and pitching coach Larry Rothschild anticipates a quick recovery.)

In taking over for the laid-back Dusty Baker, Piniella might be the most important piece of an extreme makeover that has transformed everything from the clubhouse, where there are 17 new faces, to the iconic Wrigley Field outfield walls, which will feature advertisements among the ivy for the first time, to help pay for Chicago's projected $115 million payroll. The team's lavish off-season spending might not even have been possible without the addition of Piniella, who signed a three-year, $10 million pact. "We didn't know how interested [free agents] would be in coming here, especially coming off a few losing seasons," says Cubs general manager Jim Hendry. "But after Lou came on board, I think guys looked at us and thought, 'They're serious about winning now.'"

That was certainly the case with Soriano, the most coveted position player from the '06 free-agent class. In late November, Piniella and Hendry met secretly with Soriano for three hours in a Ritz Carlton hotel suite in Naples, Fla. The Dominican-born Soriano and Piniella, who speaks fluent Spanish, instantly connected. "I could tell from our visit that he's a good young man," says Piniella. "A humble kid. He came here early and got a head start. He wants to be ready--and it sends a great message to the team." Says Soriano, "I saw his passion [during the meeting in Florida]. He's real, and he'll tell you exactly what he thinks, and I like that."

Though Soriano is coming off a career year (a remarkable 46 homers while playing half his games in cavernous RFK Stadium), he is yet another free swinger in a lineup full of them. Chicago ranked last in the National League in on-base percentage in 2006 and, not surprisingly, second-to-last in runs. Soriano's career on-base percentage is a mere .325 and his strikeout-to-walk rate remains alarmingly high, yet the Cubs are committed to batting him leadoff. Then there is the issue of where he plays in the field. Last week Piniella revealed that he wants Soriano in centerfield. Not only has the 31-year-old never played the position, but the swirling winds of Wrigley make it one of the most perilous centerfields in baseball. A second baseman for much of his big league career, Soriano initially balked at moving to the outfield for the Nationals last spring. He eventually relented and played a full season in left, where he displayed an adequate arm and good range, though he committed 11 errors. He says he's game for another switch, but not without some trepidation. "I'm an outfielder now," he says, "but I'm not a good outfielder yet. I have a lot to learn."

Only three teams (the 1991 Atlanta Braves, the '99 Arizona Diamondbacks and the 2003 Cubs) have made the postseason after losing more than 95 games the previous season, but Piniella, who never won more than 70 games in his last managerial job (with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays from '03 through '05), says he wouldn't have taken the gig if he didn't think he could do what Jim Leyland did for the Detroit Tigers last season. "We can turn this around quick because we have the makings of a real good pitching staff if we can stay healthy," he says, contemplating a rotation anchored by ace Carlos Zambrano and bolstered by free-agent lefthander Ted Lilly.

As for his sunnier demeanor, Piniella, who worked last year in the Fox broadcast booth, insists that a year away from managing has softened his edge. "It gave me a different perspective--helped me lighten up," he says. "You step back and see that sometimes you take things a bit too seriously."

Says Hendry, "He's invigorated. He's hungry for one last shot to win. When he went to Tampa, financially the team wasn't able to move forward, and that wore him down a little. When we met [in Florida in November], he asked me one question: 'What's your payroll going to be?' I told him at least $100 million. He said, 'That's good enough for me.'"

Baseball Prospectus Says
Yes, the Cubs have tried to buy their way to contender status. And it just might work in a division that was won last year by a team that went 83--78. PECOTA anticipates that Soriano will make a big splash (a .287 batting average and 39 homers) while Lilly, who signed a four-year, $40 million free-agent contract this off-season, should help stabilize the rotation (10--8, 4.37 ERA). Although PECOTA is less excited about new acquisitions Jason Marquis (projected 5.26 ERA) and infielder Mark DeRosa (11 HRs, 50 RBIs), getting a full season of Lee (28 HRs, 86 RBIs) should help the Cubs tremendously, as will Piniella, whose ability to manage a bullpen is far superior to that of his predecessor, Baker.
BOTTOM LINE: an 84--78 record, putting Chicago in a three-way war of attrition in the NL Central with the Brewers and the Cardinals.