Theory Vs. Reality

STOP US if you've heard this one before: Peyton Manning will have a big year for the Colts because, with Edgerrin James gone, he'll need to throw more often. Or this one: LaDainian Tomlinson's rushing numbers will suffer because opposing defenses can stack the line against Philip Rivers, the Chargers' inexperienced quarterback. Those are just two of a slew of assumptions bandied about by fantasy owners who seem to be "in the know"--notions tossed around in bars and over the Internet, spreading like germs in a second-grade classroom. But are theories like these valid? SI's team of NFL insiders canvassed the games, practice fields and locker rooms to find out.

Fantasy Theory 1

Steve McNair will significantly improve the receiving numbers of Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason.

REALITY Though not the athletic quarterback he once was, McNair, 33, is a marked upgrade over Kyle Boller, who's now the Ravens' backup. McNair has completed at least 60% of his passes in every season since 1999; in three years Boller has never been above 58.4%. Mason (eight catches for 93 yards in two games), with whom McNair connected for 29 TDs during eight years in Tennessee, will certainly benefit. Clayton's numbers should get a boost too, though he remains a marginal fantasy commodity.

The biggest beneficiary, however, will be tight end Todd Heap, who caught a team-high five passes for 46 yards in the Ravens' opener and added five catches for 17 yards and a touchdown on Sunday against the Raiders. Over his career McNair has shown an affinity for throwing to the tight end; 31% of his completions (728 of 2,338 at week's end) have gone to players at that position. "Steve's going to obviously look Todd's way a lot," says former Titans tight end Frank Wycheck. "I predict big numbers."

Fantasy Theory 2

Donovan McNabb's numbers will suffer without Terrell Owens.

REALITY Unless your TV and computer have been disconnected, you know that the Eagles' McNabb hasn't exactly missed T.O. so far, passing for 664 yards and five touchdowns in two games. The key questions: Will this trend continue, or are McNabb's numbers inflated because he faced two poor pass defenses (Titans and Giants)? The consensus from on-the-scene reporters who have been watching McNabb since training camp: He's the goods.

Even before Owens brought his trash-talking, abs-crunching circus to Philly, McNabb performed like a top-tier QB, throwing for 3,365 yards in 2000 and 25 TDs the next year. Owens's arrival in '04 helped drive McNabb's stats to career highs (3,875 yards and 31 TDs). McNabb's drop-off last year was largely attributed to T.O.'s departure in November, but the quarterback was also playing with a sports hernia that caused him to miss the last seven games. Now healthy, the 29-year-old McNabb is back to making plays on the run, throwing across his body and spreading the ball around the field (20 completions to wide receivers, 17 to running backs and 14 to tight ends through Sunday). "He's healthy and confident," Philly coach Andy Reid says. "He knows he has his whole game back."

Fantasy Theory 3