Consider This by Baseball Prospectus

Albert Chen

June 04, 2007

In 1988, Bill James wrote, "Players taken in the June draft coming out of college ... perform dramatically better than players taken out of high school." His assertion gained momentum in 2005 when Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus reviewed every draft from 1984 through '99 and found that college players selected in the first three rounds produced 55% more value over their careers than high school players taken in the same slots. The theory was persuasive. In last year's draft 25 college prospects were among the 44 first-round picks; 10 years earlier the 25th college player wasn't chosen until the 73rd pick. Now, the current trend has inflated the draft positions of college players, which makes a high schooler a potentially better value pick. A G.M. entering the June 7 draft would be wise to abide by this age-old rule: Take the best prospect available.