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The first third of the season is in the rearview mirror, and one Big Question looms, Shaq-like, over the league: Is there a team besides the Spurs or the Pistons that can win the title? To hear one astute observer tell it, Detroit will not be denied. "The Pistons are in a league of their own right now," says San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich. "The rest of us better hope that they can't sustain it, but I don't see why they can't. They've got the best starting five in the league, they're hungry, and they're looking to prove something."
Detroit plays at San Antonio next Friday, the second of the teams' two meetings. Will that serve as a prelude to a Finals rematch? Or can another team build momentum over the winter and topple the titans come spring? Here's an assessment of how the contenders stack up.
Tier 1 Finals Redux
The Pistons have reinvented themselves as a lethal offensive team; their 99.7 points per game through Tuesday was a 6.4-point hike from last season, and Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince had each raised his production while playing fewer minutes. The increased efficiency is a result of new coach Flip Saunders's inventive playbook as well as his decision to divide practice time equally between offense and defense; his predecessor, Larry Brown, leaned heavily toward D. "Now our guys know that scoring is just as important as getting a big stop," says G.M. Joe Dumars. "It's not unlike Tony Dungy going to the Indianapolis Colts: They already had the offense, so he brought a sense of urgency on the defensive end. We were the opposite: We had the sense of urgency on defense, so we needed to open up the offense."
Nobody has benefited more from the change than SI's MVP front-runner, Billups. Through Tuesday the league's deadliest crunch-time player was averaging career highs of 19.6 points and 8.4 assists as well as an NBA-best assist-to-turnover ratio of 4.36. "He's Nash-like: He's distributing the basketball just as well as he's scoring points when they need them," says Popovich. "He's keeping it all together, he plays D and his team exhibits unbelievable confidence in allowing him to run the whole damn thing."
The Spurs, at 23-7, fell just one win short of their best 30-game start in the Tim Duncan era, despite Manu Ginobili's eight-game absence with a right-foot injury and Duncan's battles with plantar fasciitis. Not even an 85-70 drubbing from Detroit on Christmas had the champs down. "That was a great game for us," says Popovich. "It gave me some fuel, something I could use as a reminder. 'Uh, guys, this is the team, and right now they're a little more focused: They're trying to prove something a little more than we are.'"
Tier 1-A The Riley Factor
Talentwise, the Heat belongs in the same stratosphere as the Pistons and the Spurs. Chemistrywise? Not even close. Not yet at least. But count on Pat Riley to find a successful mix. It will take time, and the new Heat coach has plenty of that. With a division title a foregone conclusion, Riley has more than three months to tinker with the league's most fascinating set of player combos.
The early signs have been positive. Since Riley replaced Stan Van Gundy on Dec. 12, the Heat is 8-3, thanks largely to the return of Shaq to the lineup. But the team has also profited from the willingness of Jason Williams, Gary Payton and Antoine Walker-all of whom are playing their best ball of the season-to assume more complementary roles. "I see a very talented team with a great, great coach who is going to use the season to come together and be ready for the playoffs," says Dumars. " Pat Riley understands exactly what it takes."
Tier 2 Ever on the Cusp