Extra Mustard by Baseball Prospectus

Tom Verducci

April 17, 2006

IS THE TIGERS' POWERFUL START A SIGN OF BIG THINGS TO COME? Detroit's 15 home runs in its first three games was not only unexpected but also unmatched in recent history. Since 1960 only one other team, the '98 Mariners, slugged as many as 10 homers in its first three games. Five more clubs hit nine: the '64 Cubs, the '80 and '96 Brewers, the '88 Mets and the 2000 Cardinals. Those six teams continued to hammer the ball, with three hitting 200 or more homers. However, only three of the six finished the year with a winning record. The '96 Brewers are probably the team that best compares with this season's Tigers: Like Detroit, Milwaukee had a slugging first baseman (John Jaha, 34 homers; Chris Shelton, five in his first four games of 2006), a rotation that featured two pitchers age 24 or younger (Scott Karl and Jeff D'Amico; Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander) and a mustachioed scrapper in the dugout (Phil Garner; Jim Leyland). Unfortunately, Tigers fans should note, the Brewers finished 80-82 that year--and haven't had a winning season since.