Tom Verducci's View

THE DEEP ROOTS OF THE CUBS' WOES

Chicago G.M. Jim Hendry has put manager Dusty Baker and his staff under review at the All-Star break, but the team's problems go beyond the dugout. The Cubs' inability to develop or acquire hitters who work counts and get on base is systemic, epitomized by rookies Ronny Cedeno (.281 OBP at week's end) and Angel Pagan (.293 OBP, one walk) as well as off-season acquisition Juan Pierre (above) (.321 OBP). Any franchise that wastes at bats on Neifi Perez (.269 OBP) just doesn't get it. Through Sunday the Cubs ranked last in the majors in walks and runs and were a lock to finish with an OBP below the big league average for the 15th time in 17 years. Their 33--54 record will likely cost Baker his job, but unless the Cubs change their philosophy on hitting, his successor won't fare much better.

REDS' PICKUP WON'T GIVE MUCH RELIEF

Lefty closer Eddie Guardado, whom Cincinnati obtained from the Mariners for a prospect on July 6, figures to have little impact on the NL race. Guardado, 35, will find Great American Ball Park too cozy for his style; he surrendered eight homers in 23 innings in Seattle this year. "He's got nothing left," says one AL scout. "What he will do is make Todd Coffey a better closer someday by teaching him the ropes."

THE RUNDOWN

?Yankees G.M. Brian Cashman has shown patience with his injury-depleted roster, but a fellow G.M. recently gave him this advice about chasing the defensively superb Red Sox: "You'd better move quickly [on a deal], before it's too late to catch them."

?Still doubting the Tigers, who were 30 games better than .500 after 86 games? Don't. Of the 44 previous teams to start 58--28 or better, only three did not make the postseason.

?The Cardinals brought in one reject pitcher ( Jeff Weaver) for another ( Sidney Ponson) in a rotation with the league's second fewest strikeouts. Says one NL manager, "They better make every play behind [Weaver], because the minute you don't, he's ready to pack it in."

Extra Mustard
by Baseball Prospectus

WERE THE BEST PLAYERS CHOSEN FOR THE ALL-STAR TEAM? Based on the Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) ranking--which compares the runs a player has created with what a waiver-wire caliber player at the same position would create--mediocre selections such as Mets catcher Paul Lo Duca (144th in VORP at week's end) and Red Sox infielder Mark Loretta (127th) diluted both starting lineups. However, the two 32-man rosters were mostly filled with deserving players--the highest ranking 11 pitchers and 25 of the top 30 position players were named All-Stars. The biggest snub: Indians DH Travis Hafner, who led the majors at the break with a 55.5 VORP.