Such is the zeal
with which major league teams are spending money that they cannot be
constrained by the mediocre talent available nor, as Cubs general manager Jim
Hendry proved last week, three blocked arteries and an EKG machine. Hendry
provided the metaphorical highlight of the off-season when, tethered to a
heart-monitoring device while awaiting an angioplasty, he made a cellphone call
and closed a four-year, $40 million deal for lefthanded starter Ted Lilly, a
seven-year veteran who has yet to throw 200 innings in a season and whose
career won-lost record (59--58) and ERA (4.60) are the very definitions of
average. Hendry soon felt better. After the angioplasty, of course.
Think House meets
Deal or No Deal when it comes to this off-season, as owners happily dole out
millions to your average Joe (Borowski, to whom the Indians gave $4.25 million
despite a 2006 season in which the journeyman 35-year-old closer blew seven
saves). However, at the same time that they generated debate about the mental
wellness of front offices throughout the majors, such deals confirmed the
extraordinary financial health of the game. "It could have been
anticipated--though maybe not quite to this extent," Braves G.M. John
Schuerholz says of a six-week stretch in which more than $829 million was
lavished upon free agents. "History tells you that every time additional
money comes to clubs, it slips right through their hands and into the players'.
We're seeing that again."
Said one player
agent at last week's winter meetings, "The spending is moving the market so
fast that what was unreasonable just two weeks ago is reasonable
today."
The market is
being driven by record crowds (total attendance is up 8.1 million from 2002),
growth in revenues from traditional and new media, revenue sharing and labor
stability. Last month owners and players agreed on a second straight collective
bargaining agreement without a work stoppage. Says an American League
executive, "I was shown the books, and beyond the Internet and XM
[satellite radio] money everybody talks about, you wouldn't believe what's
coming in and projected from licensing and international business. This
[spending] isn't a one-year thing."
Oddly, what's
missing from the forces driving spending is one traditional catalyst: star
talent. Outside of free-agent outfielder Alfonso Soriano ($136 million, eight
years from the Cubs) and lefthander Barry Zito (still unsigned as of Monday),
this free-agent class lacks difference-making players. "It's a function of
more players getting locked up to longer deals," says Dodgers G.M. Ned
Colletti. "You get fewer of those players on the market. There aren't the
arbitration guys or five-plus [service years] guys out there like there used to
be."
The flow of star
talent, though, could be about to accelerate. Among the potential free agents
next year are Braves centerfielder Andruw Jones, Blue Jays centerfielder Vernon
Wells, Cubs righthander Carlos Zambrano, Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki and
Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, all of whom gained leverage with the
market upswing. Toronto, for instance, could explore trades for Wells next
month if the recent runup has put a contract extension out of reach. (Only 28,
Wells is almost certain to eclipse the deal Soriano, three years his senior,
received). Colorado righthander Jason Jennings, another potential '07 free
agent, is already available by trade, having told the Rockies he'd be foolish
to forfeit free agency by signing an extension.
Halfway through
baseball's most extravagant spending season since the winter of 2000--01, here
are the most important story lines of the bull market of '06--07.
THE CUBS
The worst team in the National League last season has spent $304 million on new
manager Lou Piniella and eight players ( Soriano, Lilly, third baseman Aramis
Ramirez, infielder Mark DeRosa, pitchers Jason Marquis, Kerry Wood and Wade
Miller and backup catcher Henry Blanco). One NL G.M. speculated that the
Tribune Company, which is considering a sale of the club, is looking to give
the Cubs additional curb appeal. "The Cubs are a brand with great value
even when they lose," says the G.M, "but if you turn them into a
winner, the price goes up even higher. They figure if they add $40 million [in
payroll], they'll get that back and a lot more if they're selling a playoff
team."
Seeing how the
six-division playoff format allows for quick on-field turnarounds, the Cubs
envision themselves as next year's version of the '06 Tigers. Since the wild
card was introduced in 1995, 19 teams--or 20% of all playoff clubs during that
span--have made the postseason in the year after a losing season. Says
Piniella, "Jim told me when he hired me, 'We're going for it.' He's done it
and then some. We have eight starting pitchers under 30. We should
contend."
OVERVALUED
PITCHERS
Lilly, Marquis (three years, $20 million), Adam Eaton (three years, $24.5
million from the Phillies), Gil Meche (five years, $55 million from the Royals)
and Vicente Padilla (three years, $33.8 million from the Rangers) all turned
middle-of-the-rotation careers into riches. Meche's contract was not only the
longest of those deals, but also the most stunning. The 28-year-old righthander
has not thrown 200 innings in a season, and his ERA was worse than the league
average in three of the four years in which he made more than 25 starts.
Moreover, Kansas City, which also signed closer Octavio Dotel (one year, $4
million plus $2 million in incentives) and was pursuing righthander Miguel
Batista, ranked 26th in payroll last season and hasn't made the playoffs since
1985. Spending by such a low-revenue club confirmed not only the widespread
health of the sport but it also underscored the success of the players' union
in convincing clubs to funnel more revenue-sharing money toward payroll rather
than their own pockets.
Midlevel
innings-eaters Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver remained available, as did Zito, who
could command a deal of at least six years and $100 million, surpassing the $16
million average annual value the Dodgers gave Jason Schmidt, 33, for three
seasons and the Yankees gave Andy Pettitte, 34, for one year. The Giants, Mets,
Astros, Cardinals, Twins, Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays continue to search
for starting pitchers.