All-bizarro Team

Baseball Prospectus's Nate Silver judges which monster starts are for real

ALL STATS THROUGH SUNDAY

LF Carlos Quentin
WHITE SOX
.301 11 HRs 27 RBIs
Some of the best candidates for breakout years are players who suddenly get a steady job with a new team after having had to scratch and claw for playing time before. Think David Ortiz with the Red Sox in 2003. Or Carlos Pe�a with the Rays in '07. Or Carlos Quentin in '08.
The Verdict: For Real

CF Nate McLouth
PIRATES
.306 12 HRs 36 RBIs
McLouth has a well-rounded skill set, but he's never been much of a power hitter; the most home runs he ever hit in a season as a minor leaguer was 12. He's not big or strong enough to sustain this year's power over the long haul.
The Verdict: Fluke

RF Ryan Ludwick
CARDINALS
.336 11 HRs 29 RBIs
You might be tempted to apply the Carlos Quentin theorem to Ludwick, since he's another guy who has never before gotten such steady playing time. But Ludwick is 29. ( Quentin is 25.) Particularly improbable: Ludwick has hit .397 against righties, 119 points above his career average.
The Verdict: Fluke

SS Ryan Theriot, CUBS
.331 1 HR 12 RBIs
Theriot has fooled us before: He was hitting more than .300 as late as May 19 last year before eventually slumping to .266. A player who relies as heavily as Theriot does on singles—81% of his hits—is unlikely to sustain such a fast start, though Theriot's improved plate discipline should keep him from slipping too far.
The Verdict: Fluke

2B Dan Uggla, MARLINS
.316 13 HRs 31 RBIs
A peek behind the numbers of this 2005 Rule V pick reveals something that doesn't quite add up: Uggla is hitting .316 despite having struck out in almost one third of his at bats. He has too many holes in his swing to hit this far above his career norm of .263, but he'll keep hitting for power.
The Verdict: For Real

3B Blake DeWitt
DODGERS
.318 4 HRs 21 RBIs
The minor league record of this Dodgers rookie was not particularly impressive. You don't go from having a .793 OPS in the minors, as DeWitt did last year in Class A and Double A, to a .908 OPS in the majors without running a little hot.
The Verdict: Fluke

SP Edinson Volquez
REDS
7--1 1.33 ERA
Volquez is second in the National League in strikeouts per nine innings, and he has improved his ground ball--to-fly ball ratio to 1.76 to 1—a key metric when your home yard is as power-friendly as the Great American Ball Park. He's not going to finish with an ERA out of the Dead Ball era, but he's going to be very good.
The Verdict: For Real

1B Conor Jackson
DIAMONDBACKS
.310 5 HRs 32 RBIs
Because Jackson has an exceptionally strong plate approach—he walked more often than he struck out in 2007 and is on pace to do the same this year—he should continue to make the most of his at bats.
The Verdict: For Real