The Cubs took
Brownlie with the 21st pick—bypassing future big leaguers Matt Cain, Joe
Blanton, Jon Lester and Jonathon Broxton—and lavished him with a $2.5 million
signing bonus. Within three years Brownlie could not throw any harder than the
mid-80s, and minor league hitters were crushing his pitches. Chicago released
him in March 2007. Brownlie spent much of last year playing independent league
baseball and is now pitching for the Washington Nationals' Double A Harrisburg
affiliate. In May '07 Brownlie told SNY.tv, "The major question about me is
why my velocity has dipped in the past couple of years.... There's really no
answer to it; we don't know what's going on."
Says Peterson,
"How many Robert Brownlies are out there every year, and how many of them
can be saved? That's what drives me into the amateur market. Because he could
be saved. No question in my mind."
Peterson and
Duquette (the former Orioles G.M.), in conjunction with ASMI, have formed a
private start-up to bring pitching biomechanics mainstream. Their fundamental
challenge is to make the hardware and expertise of the ASMI lab portable with
sensorless technology. On a major league level, for instance, that would mean
giving pitchers biomechanical feedback in real time during the game on a
clubhouse monitor. On the amateur market, it would mean testing top pitchers at
so-called showcase events such as the Area Code Games and Perfect Game and
sending them home with a diagnosis and prescription, including drills and a
conditioning program to turn red flags into green ones.
"It's very
close to coming out, and it's going to turn into a competitive field pretty
quickly," Duquette says. "The last time I looked there were hundreds of
millions of dollars [worth of pitchers] on the disabled list. Why wouldn't you
want to find an answer in that regard? The number of [elbow] and shoulder
surgeries is at an alltime high. To have an analysis done and have a program to
reduce the [number] of injuries and surgeries is long overdue."
According to
Fleisig, the No. 1 injury risk for pitchers is overuse. Young pitchers who
continued to pitch with arm fatigue are 36 times more likely to be seriously
injured. The risk is exacerbated by poor mechanics. "After someone has
pitched for so many years, there are so many weak links in the chain
already," Peterson says. "The dynamic power [of the start-up] is at the
amateur level. Most people are of the belief that when you talk about
fundamental skills of sport, the younger you begin, the better off you are. But
the longer you wait to pitch, the better you are. Because understanding the
rotational forces is so great, if you're out of synch, you're damaging your arm
with every pitch. You can hit for a long time and be a bad batter, and you're
not going to injure yourself. Not true with pitching. You will get hurt.
"And those
kids, they can and will be saved."
BRAD LINCOLN,
whom the Pittsburgh Pirates drafted six spots ahead of Lincecum, missed all of
last season with a blown elbow and has not made it past Class A ball. The other
five pitchers selected before Lincecum in 2006—the Mariners' Morrow, the Kansas
City Royals' Luke Hochevar, the Los Angeles Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, the
Florida Marlins' Andrew Miller (a Detroit Tigers draftee) and the Colorado
Rockies' Greg Reynolds—are a combined 20--31 in the majors, or four more wins
(and 25 more losses) than Lincecum has. Lincecum has a .727 winning percentage
for a team that has played .394 baseball (69--106) in the games that he hasn't
started.
"In my 13
years in the big leagues," San Francisco infielder Rich Aurilia says,
"this is the only guy I've seen who really is worth the hype. The first
one. The real deal. And the reason I say that is not just the stuff. That's
obvious to everybody. But it's the fact that he's a great kid who is smart, who
is willing to learn and who respects the game. I really mean that. He's an easy
kid to root for, and I don't say that just because he's my teammate. He's going
to be great for this game.''
On that hot,
early-June night in Washington, Lincecum carved up the Nationals with such ease
that he missed the strike zone only 28 times to 25 batters. He bore 94-mph
two-seamers into the knuckles of righthanded hitters, blew 97-mph four-seamers
to every edge of the strike zone, snapped off wicked 80-mph curveballs and
fiendishly disguised downward-breaking 84-mph split changeups with the same
ferocious arm speed as his fastball. Lincecum allowed one run in seven innings;
he threw 83 pitches. Afterward, as always, he showered and jumped back into his
skateboarder attire without bothering to ice his arm. "Never," Tim
says. "Like my dad says, 'Ice is made for two things: injuries and my
drinks.'"
"I thought
I'd have more problems with his delivery," Nationals first baseman Aaron
Boone says, "but it wasn't as deceptive as I thought. The fastball, though,
is big-time. And that hammer [the curveball] is really good. That was
impressive."