Don't Count Us Out

IN A season in which it seems every team but your Thursday-night rec-league squad has tried and failed to hold on to the No. 1 ranking, there's a simple reason Memphis coach John Calipari and his players never worry about how they would handle the top spot in the polls. They're absolutely certain that the voters will never let them get there. Never mind that the fifth-ranked Tigers had a 20-game winning streak through Sunday, the longest in the country, or that they advanced to last year's NCAA title game and to the Elite Eight the two seasons before that. Their status as the powerhouse of Conference USA, in which they haven't lost a league game since March 2006, counts little in the eyes of some pollsters. One voter ranked Memphis 12th in last week's AP poll. "Those guys will give up a kidney before they put us Number 1 in the country," says Calipari. "Maybe two kidneys. We aren't allowed to lose a game."

If the 26--3 Tigers seem more amused than irritated by their treatment in the polls, maybe it's because they realize the voters are doing them a favor. Ever since North Carolina's seven-week run at No. 1 ended with a loss to Boston College on Jan. 4, the throne has come equipped with a whoopee cushion. Pittsburgh (twice), Wake Forest, Duke, Connecticut (twice) followed the Heels as the top-ranked team, none of them for more than three weeks. Four times, teams that were voted into the top spot lost their very next game. "My only prayer at night is 'Please don't let us move up,'" says Louisville coach Rick Pitino of the No. 1 ranking.

The constant shifting at the top is the last thing anyone expected when the season began. The Tar Heels were widely considered to be the kings-in-waiting, blue bloods advancing toward their inevitable coronation. What we have instead is a big, juicy hamburger of a season, deliciously messy and hard to get a grip on, with No. 1 teams dropping like plops of ketchup, unpredictably and often.

There is still the very real possibility that North Carolina will have the mess all mopped up by the end of the championship game in Detroit four weeks from now. But the 25--3 Tar Heels, like every other elite team in this marvelously competitive season, have been bloodied a bit, more than was expected last June, when three key players, guards Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson and forward Danny Green, ended their flirtations with the NBA and decided to rejoin reigning Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough for another season at Chapel Hill. That meant all the major contributors to last year's 36--3 Final Four team were returning, and the only issue for the Tar Heels seemed to be who would hold the ladder when they cut down the nets in the Motor City.

But the überteam that remains head and shoulders above the rest of the crowd all season only arises about once a decade in college basketball. There's a reason, or, rather, multiple reasons, that the 2006--07 Florida team with NBA-bound big men Joakim Noah and Al Horford is the only one in recent memory to maintain an aura of invincibility from Midnight Madness all the way to March Madness. The wide distribution of talent, the distracting dreams of NBA dollars, the unpredictable rate of improvement among still-developing players, and two ever-threatening wild cards—injuries and the referees' whistle—all conspire against wire-to-wire dominance.

THESE DAYS it's almost impossible for a team even to establish control of its conference. The lone exception is Memphis. Through Sunday, the Tigers' average margin of victory in their 14 league wins was 17.1 points, and only two teams, Tulsa and UTEP, had lost to Memphis by less than double digits. But Calipari's team hasn't exactly been a pushover outside the conference, either, with victories over Gonzaga and Tennessee. Their defense is one of the stingiest in the nation and certainly seems capable of carrying the team deep into March. Memphis ranks ninth in scoring defense (58.6 points per game), second in field goal percentage defense (37.1%) and fifth in blocked shots (6.3). In a 68--50 romp over then No. 18 Gonzaga in Spokane last month, the Tigers held the Bulldogs 27.9 points below their season average. Against Southern Miss last Saturday, playing their second game in less than 48 hours, the leg-weary Tigers gave up just 14 points in the first half and held the Golden Eagles to 29.4% shooting from the field for the game in a workmanlike 58--42 win. "When we shut people down, we can stay in any game," says senior guard Antonio Anderson.

The Tigers' defensive prowess is primarily due to their remarkable length. Lanky forwards Robert Dozier (6'9") and Shawn Taggart (6'10") both have wingspans in excess of seven feet. Calipari, a devotee of man-to-man defense, has begun to take further advantage of their size and speed by periodically switching to a 3--2 zone, with stringy 6'8" freshman Wesley Witherspoon disrupting things at the top. Last Saturday, the scheme thoroughly crippled the Golden Eagles, who struggled to advance the ball inside the three-point line and went 9:45 without scoring. "They're so long, you can't turn any corners on them," says Southern Miss coach Larry Eustachy. "There are no good shots."

A soft conference schedule certainly didn't hamper the Tigers in the tournament last season, when they fell to Kansas in the championship game. It could work even more to their advantage this season, when some of the traditionally strong conferences, like the Big East and the ACC, are particularly loaded. The intensity of the competition could leave some of those teams burned out and bruised by tournament time. "The question is, Have we paid too great a price in the regular season?" says UConn coach Jim Calhoun of the Big East grind. "Are we going to be fit enough, is Louisville, is Pittsburgh going to be fit enough to be able to win next month? That is the concern I have."

For some teams, the season seems like one long war of attrition. Michigan State, a presumed title contender last fall, dealt with injuries to center Goran Suton (both knees) and forward Delvon Roe (left ankle), and Raymar Morgan's mononucleosis. Purdue, picked to win the Big Ten title, lost forward Robbie Hummel to a back injury, and went 2--3 in the games he missed.

But it's not just fallen stars who can quickly shift the balance of power. Injuries to key role players and defensive stoppers have diminished several teams. Jerome Dyson of UConn, North Carolina's Marcus Ginyard and Dominic James of Marquette—fine perimeter defenders in addition to their other talents—are all injured and lost for the season, and their teams are more vulnerable as a result.