THE 32-YEAR-OLD Smith can still be a playmaker, but not with these quarterbacks. Whether it's Jimmy Clausen (disastrous as a rookie), Cam Newton (raw in the passing game) or Derek Anderson (58.2 passer rating over the past three seasons) as the Carolina signal-caller, Smith is likely to fall short of 1,000 yards for a third straight year.
11 Michael VICK
FOR VICK to justify a slot in the first round, he has to pile up the rushing yards. But for every rushing yard, the injury risk goes up. He missed four games with injuries last year and didn't top 300 passing yards after Week 13. In eight seasons he has played 16 games once. You can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it—especially if you have an injured Vick.
12 Tony GONZALEZ
GONZALEZ'S NUMBERS declined significantly for a second straight year, and at age 35 he's not going to reverse that trend. There's a reason the Falcons gave up a mother lode of picks to land Julio Jones sixth overall in April: By the second half of the season the 6' 3" Jones should overtake Gonzalez as the top complement to Roddy White.
13 Maurice JONES-DREW
AFTER OFF-SEASON knee surgery for a second straight year Jones-Drew hit it on the head in July when he told The Florida Times-Union, "They're going to be anxious to throw Rashad [Jennings] in, and they're already kind of scared of my knee." Factor in a tougher slate of run defenses as well, and MJD is an awfully risky way to start your draft.