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With one race remaining in the Sprint Cup regular season, 10 of the 12 drivers who will advance to NASCAR's playoff have locked up spots, and Kasey Kahne looks all but certain to take one of the two wild cards, which go to the drivers in positions 11--20 with the most wins. (Kahne is the only one with two.) Heading into Saturday's race at Richmond International Raceway, five drivers with one victory are in a simple situation: win and they're (almost definitely) in.
Busch has more career victories at Richmond (four) than at any other track besides Bristol (another short track), and he won at RIR in March 2011. He has another advantage: If no wild-carder gets a second win, the Chase spot goes to the driver with the most points. For now, that's Busch.
Gordon lost his best Chase chance on Sunday in Atlanta, when he couldn't pull off a last-lap pass of leader Denny Hamlin. Now he'll need to come up big at a track where he's won just two of 39 starts, his third-worst winning percentage at a track where he's made at least 15 starts.