No. 3 seed Florida has the highest statistical chance of winning it all based on these rankings, which rely on average margin of victory, adjusted for strength of schedule. The Gators won by 17.9 points per game, second in the nation, and their schedule was the 21st toughest.
Among the matchups of No. 5 seeds versus No. 12s—always a tempting place to look for upsets—Mississippi has the highest probability of KO'ing Wisconsin, followed by Oregon over Oklahoma State (42.1%), Cal over UNLV (41.5%) and Akron over VCU (38.9%).
Two No. 2 seeds were upset in 2012, and two more could be this year. No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast stands the best chance against Georgetown, while Iona's shot at beating Ohio State is almost as good (23.5%). On the other hand, Albany has just an 11.2% chance of ousting Duke.