Sixty Feet, Six Inches

"I don't need to fight, to prove I'm right..." --Baba O'Reilly (The Who)

In between filling out your brackets you'll be taking part in anywhere from 1-20 fantasy baseball drafts and auctions this month. Of course, you'll do your research, make your cheat sheets, debate the values of players with others, create elaborate spreadsheets, watch the news for injuries and position battle updates, and when all else fails, depend on your own paradigm of the player. While none of these systems are foolproof -- see my high pick of Mark Prior last year as evidence -- probably the most difficult to update is your mental image.

Once you've decided that a player is an injury risk, a stud, a never will, or a category killer, it takes a slap in the face to change your mind (please don't try this at home). Even I fall prey to this cast-in-stone thinking. For example, in one column I flippantly said A.J. Burnett was poised for a great year in 2005, but he'll continue to be a WHIP killer. I got a response from The Reader that essentially said, "...now why do YOU get to write a column?" (If I had a dollar for every one of those, they'd be calling Donald Trump my apprentice.) and went on to say that he hopes the rest of his pitching staff has Burnett's WHIP-killing 1.17 ratio. I believe a threat against my cat's life was also made.

The Reader was right; I was wr-wr-wr ... well, not as right as I like to be. My paradigm of Burnett was stuck on the guy that threw the nine-walk no-hitter in 2001. Once I had made up my mind that the guy had no control, that was it for him. Sure I would say his numbers were improving, but I would look at them without actually seeing them. After admitting my mis-mis-mis-inconclusive evaluation of his statistics, I said what a great guy Burnett was, took credit for it in my column, and then drafted him in my experts mixed league. Problem solved.

So in order to avoid going down that road again, here are some players and teams that have certain tags stuck to them that we need to un-stick:

Paradigm: A.J. Burnett is a WHIP killer. Reality: A.J. Burnett is a stud. OK, we talked about this one, but let's look at the numbers. Pre-injury, he was a WHIP machine, but was improving. In 1999 and 2000, he had a WHIP of 1.51. In 2001, it dropped to 1.32, and in 2002 it was 1.19. In 2003, he blew out his arm and had a WHIP of 1.57. Last year, while recovering he had a very nice WHIP of 1.17. Looking at his walks and hits given up, the real story was the walks. It took A.J. four years before he posted a BB/9IP below 4.00. The next year he had injury trouble and posted a walk ratio over 7.00. Last year, he found the plate and had a stunning BB/9IP of 2.85. If A.J. can keep his control, his days as Capt. WHIP may be over.

Paradigm: Matt Morris is a strikeout pitcher. Reality: A true strike out pitcher throws around a K per IP, or 9.00 K/9IP. Morris has only had a ratio of over 7.00 twice (2001 and 2002), and since then has been backsliding. Last year he posted a 5.84 ratio, and his ERA and WHIP also flirted with mediocrity (4.72 and 1.29, respectively). While Morris is on the rehab road from surgery for a frayed labrum, readers of this column know that once the words "labrum" and "pitcher" are used in the same sentence, I will never again recommend him. So don't worry that Morris won't get you K's; worry he might kill your ratios.

Paradigm: Josh Beckett is an ace that should be drafted early. Reality: Beckett is very skilled and looks like a great pitcher, but he has never won more than nine games in a season in the major leagues. In addition, he has only been over .500 once in wins: 9-8 in 2003. He's never had more K's than IP, his ERA has been fair, and his WHIP has been above average. But our problem is we've seen him thrive in two stretches: in the four games he started as a callup in 2001, and the 2003 playoffs against the Cubs and Yankees. While I have no doubt he could be an ace, blisters and other maladies have kept him from becoming Jason Schmidt or John Santana.

Paradigm: Randy Johnson is an unpleasant, freakishy-tall guy. Reality: OK, that one I got right. Unless Randy's really a woman, of course.

Paradigm: Great American Ballpark is a pitcher's nightmare. Reality: Those that keep the ball up may give up more homers there, but it's not a run factory. Last year the Reds slugging percentage at their home park was 28 points less than their road average (.403 vs. .431). Likewise, their opponents hit for more power on the road than in Cincinnati (.498 vs. .465). In 2004 the ballpark was only 18th in runs per game, 15th (or right in the middle) in ERA and 26th (!) in batting average. Those are not the numbers of a Midwestern Coors Field. It's time for the pitchers to take the blame for giving up runs.