Why Chipper Jones won't be able to keep up with himself

The only .375 seasons since 1949 belong to Williams (1957), Rod Carew (1977), George Brett (1980) and Larry Walker (1999). That's it. Four.

Williams is one of only three hitters since 1901 to hit .375 when they were at least as old as Jones is now. The others were Zach Wheat at 36 in 1924 and Tris Speaker at 37 in 1925.)

Remember, too, that the game of the first half of the 20th century bears little resemblance to how it is played today, even if we like to cling to the quaint notion that baseball is timeless. (The appeal of the game is timeless; its intricacies are not.) Heck, even the game Brett played in 1980 is vastly different from what we see today.

Brett was hitting .287 as deep into the 1980 season as May 30, then erupted on a 31-game tear in which he hit a ridiculous .496, raising his average to .390. The chase was on. Brett was hitting .400 as late as Sept. 19. But his quest died over the next seven games. Brett went 4-for-27 that week and wound up at .390. Turn just four of those outs that week into hits and he would have hit .400.

But when you look at those seven games that killed the quest, you understand how much things have changed from Brett to Jones. In those seven games Brett never faced a relief pitcher. Think about that for a minute. A full week of games seeing only one pitcher per game.

Opposing starting pitchers threw every inning but two (63 of 65) against Brett's Royals in that seven-game stretch. Those starters were Matt Keough, Mike Norris, Floyd Bannister, Jim Beattie, Rick Honeycutt, Geoff Zahn and Jerry Koosman. Brett had to be concerned with only one pitcher per night. No closers and no left-handed specialists. Jones typically will face three or four different pitchers a night, facing constant adjustments in velocity, style, release points and such. Expansion and interleague play have added to the variety.

Here's one way to glimpse how much the game has changed: look at the number of different pitchers faced by Williams in 1957, Brett in 1980, Walker in 1999 and Jones last year (even while missing 28 games):

Jones has to process far more information and do so far more often and quickly than Brett. And the game is played even more differently than when Williams made his reputation.

The bottom line is that hitting .400 has not been attained in 67 years because it keeps getting harder, and it's not likely that a 36-year-old, .310 career hitter is going to be the one to buck the odds. Jones did post his career high batting average last season, which suggests his physical skills are sharper than most 36 year olds, but even then it was "only" .337. His batting average on balls in play this year is .428, including a stupefying .470 mark at home. That's Little League stuff that can't possibly hold up.

What Jones has done already is amazing, though perhaps no more amazing than Ichiro Suzuki hitting .429 over half a season -- though because it was the second half of 2004, it did not draw this kind of notice. Think of the hundreds upon hundreds of hitters who have played baseball since Williams hit .400. Only four of them were able to hit .400 past even mid-July: Brett, John Olerud (1993), Walker (1997) and Nomar Garciaparra (1999 and 2000). Brett was the only one who finished better than even .375. And now you want to believe that Jones, at 36, can keep this up for six months?