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Baseball Prospectus: GM for a day: Yankees
By Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus
December 05, 2008
For the purposes of this exercise, I'll assume there's no turning back the clock. Colleague Joe Sheehan rightly upbraided Yankees GM Brian Cashman for failing to offer Bobby Abreu and Andy Pettitte arbitration, and those decisions are in the books; I won't cheat by hitting the magic "undo" button. We move on.
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December 05, 2008

GM for a day: Yankees

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4. Center field is still a problem. Cabrera hit only .249/.301/.341, including a pathetic .235/.280/.286 after May 6, and his defense slipped as well. Since his trade value is currently minimal, I'm keeping him as a reserve outfielder; he can sit in the corner and think about what he's done. Johnny Damon isn't suitable for center field anymore; he's my left fielder now. Brett Gardner doesn't cut it, and Jackson is at least a year away, so I need a stopgap.

To get one, I'm proposing a swap of Hideki Matsui to the Giants for Randy Winn. Matsui is 35, and coming off of a .294/.370/.424 season. He's owed $13 million for 2009 and has a full no-trade clause, but last winter there were reports that he would waive it for a trade to the Giants. Winn is also 35, owed $8.25 million, and has a limited no-trade clause in which he can block deals to up to 10 teams. I'm guessing that a shot at playing for the Yankees would be worth dodging another sub-.500 season. He has only played 166 games in center since 2004, but the DT numbers show him as still above average out there. He hit .306/.363/.426 last year, and should meet his career .347 OBP while holding down the fort.

To make this happen the Yanks will pick up the difference in salaries, of course. Selling Godzilla's ability to play the field might require the pot to be sweetened by taking an extra couple of million off the Giants' plate or throwing in a live arm, but it's doable. The Giants' home-run leader, Bengie Molina, hit just 16 last year; Matsui should be good for 20-25 while carrying his typical .370 OBP, something a team that finished 13th in the NL in that category could sorely use.

5. Time to deal with the rotation. Assume that Wang and Chamberlain are locks, that Hughes or Kennedy will take the No. 5 spot, that Alfredo Aceves, who put up a 2.40 ERA in 30 late-season innings, is my seventh starter behind whichever of the two above is fifth or sixth, and that at least one spare is stretched out at Scranton. That leaves a need for two starters.

For one spot, I sign Derek Lowe, who made former Dodgers GM Paul DePodesta look brilliant for inking him to a four-year, $36 million deal on the heels of an ugly 5.42 ERA in his farewell campaign in Boston. Since then Lowe has ranked 10th in the majors in innings, 11th in SNLVAR, and 12th in ERA+, and he's coming off the best of those four seasons. He hasn't missed a start in seven years, and is the only active major leaguer with at least 10 years of service and no trips to the disabled list. After last year that's music to my ears.

Lowe is also the majors' most extreme ground-baller this side of Brandon Webb, and while the middle infield of Cano and Derek Jeter isn't well-suited for that, I'm banking that the second baseman can bounce back and return to competence in the field. Besides, with Wang in the rotation, I've already bet on the infield defense to some extent, and with Teixeira replacing Giambi, I've at least made one upgrade. If Cano doesn't work out at the keystone, he's headed for leftfield, DH or the glue factory in 2010 so long as this is my team. I'm prepared to go four years on Lowe, even though they're his age 36-39 seasons, and assuming I'll need to spend around $16 million a year, again mindful that the Red Sox may bid him up too.

Having signed Lowe, I'll go high-risk/high-reward for the other spot. I'm not touching A.J. Burnett's shaky track record with a 10-foot pole; instead I'm going to sign Ben Sheets to a two-year, $30 million deal with a vesting option for a third year. Sheets threw 198 1/3 innings last year, his most since 2004, but tore a flexor muscle in his elbow in late September and finished the year on the DL. I'm betting that will hamper his ability to get a long-term deal, and I'm willing to pay more for less, to go as low as 300 innings in 2009-2010 to vest the option, and to include escalator clauses that increase the value of that third year based on innings, All-Star appearances, Cy Young voting or whatever else it takes.

6. With Matsui traded and Damon in left, my DH spot is vacant. I'll need to use Posada there once or twice a week to preserve his 37-year-old body and surgically repaired shoulder. Additionally, I've got Cabrera to play an outfield slot and give someone an occasional half-day off, and whomever isn't playing out of Nady and Swisher as another option as well.

Now that Betemit is history, I need some backup infield options as well. Having already locked up two members of the fin de siècle Holy Trinity of shortstops, I'm intrigued by the possibility of bringing Nomar Garciaparra back east to be a part-time jack of all trades. He's experienced at both infield corners, and in between some 17 stints on the DL last year played a passable shortstop for a few stretches while hitting .264/.326/.466. At around 250-300 plate appearances, many of them coming as DH, he might actually hold up over the course of a season. If Nomar chooses not to come east or to hang up his spikes entirely, Eric Hinkse, who bopped 20 homers for the Rays in just 432 PA, would make for a fine fallback, adding an extra outfield glove in exchange for Nomrar's largely redundant one at short. Either way I can't imagine either player costing more than $4 million.

I'd still need a backup second baseman, and may as well find someone competent at both middle-infield slots. Chris Gomez, Ramon Martinez and Craig Counsell are all capable of providing a .325 OBP in that role, which will do nicely; Counsell's lefty bat makes him the first choice. Since I'll deploy Posada at DH sometimes and be stuck with Jose Molina's weak bat, an offense-minded third catcher would be nice. Greg Zaun or Javier Valentin, both switch-hitters, would be my top choices there; since Joe called dibs on Valentin for the Dodgers, I'll take the former, and work him into the DH rotation as well.

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