Fantasy Mail: Time to quit Lester?

Each week I'll answer a handful of the most pertinent questions I've received during the week in my attempt, weak as it might be, to bring insightful fantasy analysis to the fore (my email address is listed at the bottom of the piece if you wish to drop me a line).

When I took Jon Lester I thought I had quite a steal at the draft table. However, this season has pretty much been misery all the way though with this guy. Do I hang on with the hopes he heats up once warm weather finally arrives in the northeast?
-- Jake, Saratoga Springs, NY

I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- I'm still buying Lester. Why would I say that when his ERA is 6.07 and his WHIP is 1.60?

(1) Lester has been a strikeout machine this season. Lester entered the year with a K/9 mark of 6.65. This year that number has taken a massive step up to 9.40. Moreover, the speed of his pitches is also up, his fastball by a mph up to 93, and his slider is also coming in about half a mile an hour faster as well. Perhaps all those innings last season really didn't take anything out of that left arm of his.

(2) With the huge increase in punchouts we have only witnessed an incremental up-tick in his walk rate from last season as his 2.82 rate of '08 has increased to 3.19 in '09. Still, after being over 4.40 walks per nine innings in each of his first two seasons we'll happily take a number in the low three's, especially with the massive increase in punchouts.

(3) His line drive rate allowed last season and this year is virtually identical (roughly 21% both years), though he has seen a slight rise in his fly ball rate to 35.6% (it was 32% last year). Still, his current fly ball level is about "normal" and by no means something to be overly concerned with, that is until you see that batters have converted 17.5% of those fly balls into home runs. That number is bound to regress as we move forward given his barely 9% mark in his career which is spot on the major league average.

(4) And here is the big one -- dude has been extremely unlucky. With a BABIP of .314 in his brief career, including a two straight years under .300, it's an utter shock to see his current mark at .374, the worst mark amongst pitchers who have thrown 50-innings this season. Given his growth this season, and his often dominating peripherals, there just doesn't seem to be any rational explanation for this number being that high other than pure luck.

Add it all up and I'm still firmly in the Lester corner. If his current owner is fed up jump all over the lefty from Boston, and if you own him, continue to bide your time, things should turn around soon.

With Brett Myers future cloudy at best, I need pitching help. I've been offered Bronson Arroyo and Joel Pineiro for Brad Hawpe (I have a ton of outfield depth). Should I accept the offer to help out my ailing staff?
-- Rick, Mission Hills, CA

The first thing to mention here is that no deal is ever a 2-for-1 transaction. The person trading two players will almost certainly have to acquire someone else off waivers to fill a vacated roster spot (unless someone is being activated from the DL). In addition, the person who is acquiring two players will have to drop someone else on their roster since they only moved one player in the deal. So remember to keep an eye on who that extra player will be in the deal.