Pecking Order: The K-Rod blues

When Francisco Rodriguez came to the New York Mets, I thought he was in for a rude awakening. First, he'd be on a much bigger stage than in Anaheim, and second, he was now in the same bullpen as J.J. Putz -- a bona fide Major League closer that could eat into K-Rod's ninth-inning duties should he struggle. I also felt that K-Rod was a bit of an injury risk, largely because of his jerky motion and slight frame. But here we are, over two months into the season, Putz is on the DL, and K-Rod is looking sharp as ever -- mowing down batters on the world's biggest stage.

Aside from his notable 0.98 WHIP and .153 BAA, Rodriguez has some bizarre batted ball splits. His GB/FB rate of 0.51 is the lowest (by far) of his career, and 20 percent of batted balls are infield fly balls (IFFB%, or essentially, pop-ups). I know we all analyze numbers like mad in this business, and constantly look for ways to explain that a low BABIP is a terrible thing (his is also quite low at .229), but I can't figure out how inducing lots of pop-ups is a bad thing for a closing pitcher. Pop-ups aren't usually a matter of luck, since even a perfect swing -- from a timing standpoint -- yields a line-drive, a moon shot, or a ball fouled directly back and out of play. Pop-ups are usually induced by a combination of a batter's poor timing and a pitch's sharp movement, just like broken bats. In only two seasons of Mariano Rivera's career, 2004 and 2008, did he post an incredibly high IFFB%. In these seasons, two of his best statistically, his IFFB% was a preposterous 26.2 and 24.5, while his BABIP was .285 and .234. I'd say there's a correlative link.

Sure, K-Rod will get hit a little more as his BABIP creeps upward during the season, but I'm willing to gamble that he's made an adjustment to induce more pop-ups by getting in on the hands of hitters more effectively -- and that's a great approach to have as a closing pitcher.

Stats as of June 10, 2009

Matt Lindstrom, FLA
11-for-13 (85%), 24.1 IP, 24 Ks, 5.92 ERA, 1.85 WHIP
Next in line: Leo Nunez
Third in line: Kiki Calero

Fernando Rodney, DET
11-for-11 (100%), 25 IP, 19 Ks, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Next in line: Brandon Lyon/Joel Zumaya
Third in line: Ryan Perry (Minors)

Scott Downs, TOR
8-for-9 (89%), 25.1 IP, 25 Ks, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
Next in line: Jason Frasor
Third in line: B.J. Ryan/Jesse Carlson

Matt Capps, PIT
13-for-15 (87%), 18.2 IP, 12 Ks, 5.30 ERA, 1.77 WHIP
Next in line: John Grabow
Third in line: Sean Burnett/Jesse Chavez

José Valverde, HOU
2-for-4 (50%), 8 IP, 11 Ks, 5.63 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Next in line: LaTroy Hawkins
Third in line: Chris Sampson

Huston Street, COL
10-for-11 (91%), 24.1 IP, 25 Ks, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Next in line: Manny Corpas
Third in line: Alan Embree