Pitcher Perfect: Reach for the Cy

Since we're at the end of the season, let's do our annual review of who was truly the most valuable pitcher in each league, and in a perfect world would receive the Cy Young award.

When evaluating the candidates for the Cy Young, I ask three questions:

1. Did he have a good season compared to the league?
2. Was the pitcher valuable to his team?
3. Did he pitch well when it counted?

That first question is answered by looking at who had the best results in their respective leagues. This is the true absolute stats in a vacuum (there's a movie idea as good as Snakes on a Plane). Voters usually put a lot of emphasis on pitching wins, but in recent years they've put in perspective what statistics are in the pitcher's control versus those that are defense- and team-dependent. And as team dependency goes, a win is tops on the list. So I look at wins, ERA and WHIP, but relative to the league and the pitcher's team (see below).

The second question requires that we look at the pitcher's results compared to the other starters on his team. That allows us to see how well he has done with the same defense, offense and bullpen that at least four other starters have had. This can help a pitcher on a bad team or penalize one on a good team. In the latter situation, I give the benefit of the doubt. I will also look at wins the pitcher had taken away because of blown saves.

The last question is harder to quantify than the previous two, but it has to do with how well he has done in meaningful games, which usually occur in September. Granted, the Royals and Pirates meaningful games are over by Memorial Day (or sometimes Mardi Gras), but this can help the pitcher on the good team who is penalized by question two.

It's hard to judge apples and oranges, especially when the orange payroll is four times that of the apples. So rather than letting the stats dominate all the decisions, I keep things in context with the league and the season. That means pitchers on bad teams don't get penalized. Relievers are also considered, but they had to be closers and had to have a stellar season. I do keep an eye open for middle relievers, but I've never seen one that merited a Cy Young.

Pitchers that don't depend on strikeouts have just as much value as fireballers (that's why I look at K/BB and not just K9). Durability is appreciated, but not just for durability's sake. Having said that, a starting pitcher needs 20 starts unless he went 18-1 in his 19 starts, and conversely, I won't bump up a pitcher simply because he has less starts than the opposition. I also don't penalize or split my vote for two pitchers from the same team, but to be the best pitcher in your league, you have to be the best on your team.

And with all that, let's look at the two leagues:

First let's answer the first question by looking at a few league-wide numbers. Note that the names listed below are not the only ones to be considered for the award, but names that appear more than once tend to be the top nominees.