Schedules tell different stories for Ravens, Saints; what to watch for

Three things on my mind entering the line-of-demarcation week of the 2009 NFL season:

1. Beware Baltimore. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has an interesting philosophy about the schedule that's turning into the toughest in football. "We're in a stretch where we play seven of eight against teams that, right now, are either in first place or tied for first,'' he said. "But I've told our team that's exactly the way we want it. Because if we win, we gain a game on a team we're battling for the playoffs.''

When Baltimore beat Denver 30-7 on Sunday, a couple of things were evident: The Ravens are mixing up their blitzes better to try to get more pressure on the quarterback, so they can cover up their deficiencies at cornerback. Jarret Johnson, in particular, came alive, and if he and Terrell Suggs can be the bookend pass-rushers the rest of the year that they were against Kyle Orton, Baltimore will be a better defense.

Also, the Ravens' 2008 draft is panning out superbly. Joe Flacco is the league's 11th-rated quarterback and Ray Rice the ninth-ranked rusher. Rice has been a revelation. The Ravens thought knew he was a between-the-tackles back with a little burst; he's that, plus good at blitz pickup (excellent leverage) and receiving. The Ravens are certainly one of the best six teams in the AFC and should make the playoffs, but that depends so much on my next point ...

2. This is the time of year when the schedule starts to play a major role in who plays in January. The Chargers and Ravens have the same record, 4-3, and Baltimore won head-to-head in Week 2 at San Diego. But the Chargers have Kansas City, Cleveland, Tennessee and Washington remaining; Baltimore's relative gimmes are Cleveland, Detroit and Oakland -- and the Ravens have the unbeaten Colts and both division games with Pittsburgh in the final seven weeks of the season. If the Ravens do make the playoffs and aren't too injured when they get there, I think they'll be a very tough out.

3. "Do you think the Saints (or Colts) will go undefeated?'' The other night, on ESPN, Stuart Scott asked Matt Millen if he thought New Orleans would go undefeated. Millen said absolutely not -- which is the same thing I believe. But this is what we do in the media. We do stories too fast, before they make sense.

I think the Saints are the best team in football, and I understand the Saints have the easiest schedule down the stretch -- they face only three tough teams (New England and Dallas at home, Atlanta on the road). But the Saints, to me, don't pass the smell test of a 16-0 team, at least right now. Two weeks ago, New Orleans was down 24-3 to a decent Miami team. If the Saints get to 11-0, then we'll talk ... because then they'll have beaten the Patriots, and will have only two serious challenges the rest of the way. By the way, New England's margin of victory after eight perfect weeks of 2007: 26.4. New Orleans' margin through eight weeks: 17.0.

Matt Schaub, QB, Houston.

Schaub is playing in rarefied air through eight games -- in the Peyton Manning altitude, leading the NFL in passing yards (2,342) and touchdown passes (16, tied with Brett Favre), with one game in hand over Manning. But sooner or later the Texans -- 1-13 all-time against the big, bad Colts -- have to start beating them, and the only way they'll do that Sunday in Indy is by scoring 24 or more.

With the run game struggling, it's going to fall to Schaub. Houston didn't trade two second-round picks and give Schaub $8 million a year so he could play close games. They got him and Mario Williams and some good linebackers so they could beat the team that's dominated the division since the Texans were born seven years ago. Adding to the weight on Schaub this week: He'll be without tight-end targets Owen Daniels and James Casey, both injured.