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Chat Reel: SI's William Nack

Other horses seem to be racing for second

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Posted: Friday May 19, 2000 02:22 PM

Sports Illustrated senior writer William Nack joined CNNSI.com users for a chat on May 18 to preview the second leg of horse racing's Triple Crown, the Preakness. A transcript follows.

CNNSI.com Host: Welcome to our Preakness preview chat with Sports Illustrated's William Nack. Thanks for joining us, Bill.
William Nack: Thanks for having me. I'm in Baltimore. It rained this morning, but the favorite's trainer, Neil Drysdale, says he is not concerned about the shape of the race track. He says Fusaichi Pegasus has worked over muddy tracks, winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on an off track. Plus he has the pedigree -- he's the son of Mr. Prospector. Offspring of Mr. Prospector normally do well on off tracks; it's a genetic thing.

From Art: How do you envision the Preakness being run if the track is sloppy or muddy?
William Nack: There is speed in the race. Hal's Hope drew the outside post; he's got speed. High Yield's got speed -- he drew No. 5. Red Bullet has also got speed. I see Hal's Hope going to the lead like he did at the Derby. I'm anticipating he'll break well and come over. I think Fusaichi Pegasus, by the time they get to the first term, he'll be into the bridle -- running full speed. He'll probably be fourth or fifth on the outside and relaxing.

One of the advantages of this horse in this race is that he has Kent Desormeaux on him. For years Desormeaux owned Pimlico; he had everything but the deed. He was one of the greatest apprentice riders of all time here and knows Pimlico intimately. There's nothing he doesn't know about the racing surface. He told me this morning: "Every time I come here it's like coming home. I might be from Louisiana, but I really learned to ride horses at Pimlico." Desormeaux being the pilot is good news for everybody interested in seeing this horse go on.

I think he'll improve on his Derby. He's still a fresh horse -- the Derby was his fifth start. He's got a lot of improving to do -- growing up,. mental maturation. I don't think we've seen the best of this horse yet.

From Mike: Will the small Preakness field be good for FuPeg or work against him?
William Nack: It'll be good. There's plenty of speed to sweep him along, though I have a feeling if Hal's Hope gets the lead his jockey, Roger Velez, will tuck in on him. There's not a lot of wild speed in the race. This is a good-sized field. I give three horses a chance if Fusaichi Pegasus stubs his toe.

I like Red Bullet -- he's really well bred, a son of Unbridled, a Derby winner. Red Bullet finished second to Fusaichi Pegasus in the Wood Memorial. If you look at films of the Wood, you think, If he couldn't beat Pegasus then, what makes you think he can beat him now? One thing he has going for him: He didn't run in the Derby, aiming for the Preakness, in order to freshen him up. The trainer thought it would be better to skip the crazy atmosphere of the Derby. The only problem is that very few horses, in my lifetime, have won the Preakness without running the Derby. Deputed Testimony and Codex come to mind ... but beyond those two I can't recall any. So Red Bullet has that going against him. The Derby is a mile and a quarter and is a great conditioning race for the Preakness. Horses that bypass the Derby frequently lack that conditioning. So this is the obstacle Red Bullet needs to overcome.

I also think Captain Steve has got a chance, although if you talk to his trainer, Bob Baffert, you get the feeling he's running for second place. I saw Baffert the other day at the hotel and he said, "My horse is training real good. He came out of the Derby fine. But that other horse is unbelievable." So I think he's kind of running for second, that's what he thinks. Baffert has won the Preakness, back-to-back with Silver Charm and Real Quiet, and someone asked him if he liked not having the big horse. He said, "I don't like it. I'd much rather be in Neil Drysdale's shoes." The whole attitude he's reflecting is that he's running for second money.

I think D. Wayne Lukas, the trainer of High Yield, also feels the same way. He usually exudes confidence, but he's not exuding confidence this time. He said the two horses that have a chance to beat Fusaichi Pegasus are High Yield and Captain Steve. And I think he doesn't like Red Bullet because he didn't run in the Derby. In his experience it's difficult to win the Preakness without running the Derby. Even though Baffert was the trainer of Codex, who won a Preakness without going to the Derby. So the attitude here -- outside of Red Bullet trainer Joe Orseno -- is that they're resigned to chasing the big horse. I think Orseno really thinks he has a chance to win this thing with Red Bullet. And he's got a good jockey with Jerry Bailey.

From Robert: Aren't we really overhyping Fusaichi Pegasus? Isn't he really just a good horse running against below-average competition? Even if he wins the Triple Crown I don't think he compares to Secretariat or Affirmed like everyone is saying.
William Nack: I think the hype is a bit premature. However, I just love the way this horse runs. He's got a big, long stride; he's got a great sense of curiosity -- he's always looking around. In the Derby, if you saw the ABC isolated camera on him, he was just galloping along on the backstretch. At one point Desormeaux was riding him one-handed, just sitting on him. And it's a pleasure to watch him, because he's doing things so easily. At this point, with only six starts, it would be unrealistic to compare him to any Triple Crown winner. It would be unfair to compare him to a Secretariat or a Seattle Slew, or Affirmed or Alydar. I don't even know if he's as good as Spectacular Bid. So, you're right, it's a little early. To me, he's a real good horse; he has not yet proven that he's a great horse.

As for the competition, there are a lot of good three-year-olds out there, including Aptitude, who is skipping the Preakness to prep for the Belmont. I don't think Fusaichi Pegasus is necessarily beating up on below-average horses.

From Guest: Why is Neil Drysdale sequestering Fusaichi Pegasus away from the rest of the horses? Is he really that worried about the colt's temperament?
William Nack: Neil is a very private individual himself, and he doesn't like a lot of hustle and bustle around his horses when he's working. And he just wanted to get away from the media circus that had followed him around Churchill Downs before the Derby. He wanted to give the horse a chance to settle down. I personally think that kind of stuff is a mistake. When you've got the big horse, just don't change anything once you've won the Derby. Let the circus unfold. Every other horse has stayed in the stakes barn, which is right near the homestretch at Pimlico. Whereas he's across the race track, half a mile away, in another barn altogether. Being a horse-racing person, I'm kind of superstitious by nature. I wouldn't do a thing different at Pimlico than I did at Churchill Downs. But Neil chose to go in another direction.

From Lloyd: Why is the Preakness two weeks after the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes three weeks after the Preakness? The gap between races seems inconsistent.
William Nack: That's just the way they happened to fall years ago. Way back in the old days, there were periods of time when the Preakness came before the Derby. And I know once it was a week after the Derby instead of two. Somebody finally decided to do it the way it is now -- the Derby, two weeks, then the Preakness, three weeks, then the Belmont. It's been this way for as long as I've covered racing, which is starting in 1972. And I know it goes back before that as well, maybe to the '50s.

But I still think there's too little time between the Derby and the Preakness. Two weeks is really not long enough for a modern-day thoroughbred to recover from running a mile and a quarter at Churchill and then two weeks later run a mile and 3/16ths. In England the first leg of their Triple Crown is a mile. Then the second race is about a month later at a mile and a half. And the final leg isn't until September. So it's much easier to win the Triple Crown in England than here. I think they should revamp it -- give the horses an extra week between the Derby and the Preakness.

From Guest: I don't quite understand odds. What does a 3-5 favorite mean?
William Nack: 3-5 favorite means in order to win $3 you have to bet $5. That's a short price -- it's not good odds. I wouldn't bet a horse that's 3-5. I tend to look around for more value. Take a 3-1 shot, which means you bet $1 to win $3; with a 3-5 shot you bet $5 to win the same $3. 3-5 means most everybody thinks that horse is going to win. You're not even getting even money. I remember some horses going off at 1-5. Man O' War once went off at 1-100 -- you had to bet $100 to win $1. Good luck!

CNNSI.com Host: That's all we have time for today. Thanks for chatting with us, Bill.
William Nack: Thanks.

 

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SI's Mark Beech: Preakness Notebook: Whither Fusaichi? CNNSI.com's complete Triple Crown coverage
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